Predictivism and old evidence: a critical look at climate model tuning
European Journal for Philosophy of Science 5 (2):171-190 (2015)
Abstract
Many climate scientists have made claims that may suggest that evidence used in tuning or calibrating a climate model cannot be used to evaluate the model. By contrast, the philosophers Katie Steele and Charlotte Werndl have argued that, at least within the context of Bayesian confirmation theory, tuning is simply an instance of hypothesis testing. In this paper I argue for a weak predictivism and in support of a nuanced reading of climate scientists’ concerns about tuning: there are cases, model-tuning among them, in which predictive successes are more highly confirmatory of a model than accommodation of evidenceAuthor's Profile
DOI
10.1007/s13194-015-0110-4
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Citations of this work
An Epistemic Advantage of Accommodation over Prediction.Finnur Dellsén - forthcoming - Philosophers' Imprint.
Explaining with Simulations: Why Visual Representations Matter.Julie Jebeile - 2018 - Perspectives on Science 26 (2):213-238.
Climate Models: How to Assess Their Reliability.Martin Carrier & Johannes Lenhard - 2019 - International Studies in the Philosophy of Science 32 (2):81-100.
The Diversity of Model Tuning Practices in Climate Science.Charlotte Werndl & Katie Steele - 2016 - Philosophy of Science 83 (5):113-114.
Understanding climate phenomena with data-driven models.Benedikt Knüsel & Christoph Baumberger - 2020 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 84 (C):46-56.
References found in this work
The philosophical novelty of computer simulation methods.Paul Humphreys - 2009 - Synthese 169 (3):615 - 626.
Holism, entrenchment, and the future of climate model pluralism.Johannes Lenhard & Eric Winsberg - 2010 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part B: Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics 41 (3):253-262.
Climate Models, Calibration, and Confirmation.Katie Steele & Charlotte Werndl - 2013 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 64 (3):609-635.
II—Wendy S. Parker: Confirmation and adequacy-for-Purpose in Climate Modelling.Wendy S. Parker - 2009 - Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume 83 (1):233-249.