Thinking and Reasoning 16 (3):172-197 (2010)
Authors |
|
Abstract |
A study is reported testing two hypotheses about a close parallel relation between indicative conditionals, if A then B , and conditional bets, I bet you that if A then B . The first is that both the indicative conditional and the conditional bet are related to the conditional probability, P(B|A). The second is that de Finetti's three-valued truth table has psychological reality for both types of conditional— true , false , or void for indicative conditionals and win , lose , or void for conditional bets. The participants were presented with an array of chips in two different colours and two different shapes, and an indicative conditional or a conditional bet about a random chip. They had to make judgements in two conditions: either about the chances of making the indicative conditional true or false or about the chances of winning or losing the conditional bet. The observed distributions of responses in the two conditions were generally related to the conditional probability, supporting the first hypothesis. In addition, a majority of participants in further conditions chose the third option, “void”, when the antecedent of the conditional was false, supporting the second hypothesis
|
Keywords | indicative conditionals conditioal bet Ramsey test |
Categories | (categorize this paper) |
Reprint years | 2010 |
DOI | 10.1080/13546783.2010.504581 |
Options |
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
Download options
References found in this work BETA
Bayesian Rationality: The Probabilistic Approach to Human Reasoning.Mike Oaksford & Nick Chater - 2007 - Oxford University Press.
Truth and Probability.Frank Ramsey - 1926 - In Antony Eagle (ed.), Philosophy of Probability: Contemporary Readings. Routledge. pp. 52-94.
View all 30 references / Add more references
Citations of this work BETA
The Relevance Effect and Conditionals.Niels Skovgaard-Olsen, Henrik Singmann & Karl Christoph Klauer - 2016 - Cognition 150:26-36.
Cancellation, Negation, and Rejection.Niels Skovgaard-Olsen, Peter Collins, Karolina Krzyżanowska, Ulrike Hahn & Karl Christoph Klauer - 2019 - Cognitive Psychology 108:42-71.
The Probabilities of Conditionals Revisited.Igor Douven & Sara Verbrugge - 2013 - Cognitive Science 37 (4):711-730.
Uncertainty and the de Finetti Tables.Jean Baratgin, David E. Over & Guy Politzer - 2013 - Thinking and Reasoning 19 (3-4):308-328.
View all 52 citations / Add more citations
Similar books and articles
The Probability of Conditionals: The Psychological Evidence.David E. Over & Jonathan St B. T. Evans - 2003 - Mind and Language 18 (4):340–358.
The Fall of “Adams' Thesis”?Alan Hájek - 2012 - Journal of Logic, Language and Information 21 (2):145-161.
Conditional Probability and Pragmatic Conditionals: Dissociating Truth and Effectiveness.Eyvind Ohm & Valerie A. Thompson - 2006 - Thinking and Reasoning 12 (3):257 – 280.
Analytics
Added to PP index
2010-08-20
Total views
363 ( #28,734 of 2,518,878 )
Recent downloads (6 months)
10 ( #72,069 of 2,518,878 )
2010-08-20
Total views
363 ( #28,734 of 2,518,878 )
Recent downloads (6 months)
10 ( #72,069 of 2,518,878 )
How can I increase my downloads?
Downloads