The Sweep of Probability broadly surveys this burgeoning field of philosophical inquiry. The book is unique because it engages the reader in contemporary debates about a variety of issues in probability theory without requiring a background in probability and mathematics. It also illustrates how the concerns of probability relate not only to philosophical inquiry but to aspects of everyday life. The primary aim of this book, claims George N.Schlesinger in the introduction, is to illustrate, by discussing a wide variety of (...) topics, that elementary probability belongs to one of those rare intellectual ventures where the returns are disproportionately high to the initial investment of effort. (shrink)

Originally published in 1963. Can one discern certain regularities in the manoeuvrings and techniques employed by scientists and can these be formulated into the methodological principles of science? What is the origin and basis of such principles? Are they imposed by objective realities, do they derive from conceptual necessities or are they rooted in our own deep seated predilections? This volume investigates these questions and sheds light on the growth mechanism of the evolving structure of science itself.

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The development of technologies for gene editing in the wild has the potential to generate tremendous benefit, but also raises important concerns. Using some form of public deliberation to inform decisions about the use of these technologies is appealing, but public deliberation about them will tend to fall back on various forms of heuristics to account for limited personal experience with these technologies. Deliberations are likely to involve narrative reasoning—or reasoning embedded within stories. These are used to help people discuss (...) risks, processes, and fears that are otherwise difficult to convey. In this article, we identify three forms of collective narrative that are particularly relevant to debates about modifying genes in the wild. Our purpose is not to privilege any particular narrative, but to encourage people involved in deliberations to make these narratives transparent. Doing so can help guard against the way some narratives—referred to here as “crafted narratives”—may be manipulated by powerful elites and concentrated economic interests for their own strategic ends. (shrink)

This book explores recently opened avenues in logic and philosophical analysis to offer new perspectives on time-honored religious beliefs. Topics covered include the nature of divine attributes, the implications of divine benevolence and divine justice, arguments in support of theism and atheism, and religion and morality.

According to popular opinion, thought experiments are limited in scope, since no novel empirical results could be expected to be produced by thought alone. Yet consider the spectacular 16th century experiment by Stevin. leading to the discovery of the principles of the resolution and combination of forces. He conducted no experiments, for he derived his novel and highly important conclusions by several steps of ingenious reasoning alone. To understand why mental experiments may serve as very effective scientific tools. we need (...) to explicate carefully their underlying mechanism. Thought experiments invariably involve the widely debated notion of “counterfactual conditionals.” A variety of historical examples are offered designed to illustrate the nature of thought experiments, their associated counterfactual conditionals. as well a the nature of the vital link between the two. (shrink)

Basic yet familiar and non-technical features of time are investigated. Two novel and detailed arguments are advanced defending the common view that 'time rolls relentlessly'. A number of hitherto neglected but important differences between spatio-temporal location and every other physical property are discussed. Also explored are the locations of circular time; the uniformity of nature, temporal positions and possible worlds, as well as the famous, unresolved problem, 'Why do we know so much more about the past than about the future?'. (...) For those who wish to delve deeper, a portion of the book consists of problems to ponder and their possible solutions. (shrink)

After examining these decisions in their one-period setting, they devote most of the book to a multiperiod context, which adds the long-term perspective most risk management analyses require.

Summary Young people differ widely in their sports behavior and show high drop-out rates from organized sports. One explanation from socialization theory refers to the transgenerational mediation of sports behavior and orientations toward sports within the family. The present study investigates the relevance of orientations toward sports and behavioral patterns within the family to young people’s sports behavior. Using methodological triangulation between multiple linear regression and qualitative interviews of young people between the ages of 15 and 20, the study investigates (...) the relationship between individual sports behavior and family influences such as the importance of sports, regularity of sports activity within the family, social support, sports-related health awareness, and communication about sports in the family. (shrink)

W.G. Sebald’s literary output has consistently addressed the theme of exile, which is most fully explored in his last novel, Austerlitz. This article places Sebald’s literary output in the context of contemporary debate in the social sciences about memory and identity. It is argued that Sebald used the form of a biographical memoir to illuminate powerfully the ‘condition of exile’. His focus is the impact of the Holocaust on European Jews. As a self-conscious German writer possessed of a sense of (...) historical responsibility, he chose to treat this subject obliquely. Sebald used the device of the unreliable narrator. At least some of the disconcerting effect of his literary work lies in its playful use of an ethnographic style and method. It is argued that Sebald has developed a hybrid style, method and form that may be called ‘literary ethnography’. For Sebald, himself in self-exile, the recovery of memory and the seeking of one’s past do not – and cannot – ultimately resolve the problems of being in exile. Knowing one’s past has no ultimately redemptive qualities. The condition of exile remains irredeemably liminal and there is no repairing the damage. (shrink)

ZusammenfassungDieser Beitrag analysiert, basierend auf Essers (2009) vierdimensionalem Integrationskonzept, das Ausmaß der sozialen Integration von einheimischen und immigrierten Mitgliedern im Vereinssport (n = 780; MAlter = 20.62; 38.2 % weiblich; 38.5 % mit Migrationshintergrund). Dabei interessierte der Einfluss soziodemografischer, sportbezogener sowie soziokultureller Merkmale. Mitglieder der ersten Migrationsgeneration waren entlang dreier Integrationsdimensionen weniger stark integriert als einheimische und immigrierte Mitglieder der zweiten bzw. dritten Generation. Multiple Regressionsanalysen verdeutlichten, dass einige Merkmale signifikant mit den Integrationsdimensionen zusammenhängen (Mitgliedschaftsdauer, elterliche Sportvereinsaktivität, Wertorientierung, bikulturelle Integrationseinstellung) (...) und somit relevanter für die soziale Integration sind als andere (Identität, Nationalität). (shrink)

In this essay, we explore consequences of the systemic failure to track and to publicize the prevalence of patient‐safety threats in American medicine. Tens of millions of Americans lose trust in medical care every year due to safety shortfalls. Because this loss of trust is long‐lasting, the corrosive effects build up over time, yielding a collective maelstrom of mistrust among the American public. Yet no one seems to notice that patient safety is a root cause, because no one is counting. (...) In addition to identifying the origins of this purblindness, we offer an alternative policy approach. This would call for government to transparently track safety threats through the systematic collection and reporting of patients’ experiences. This alternative strategy offers real promise for stemming the erosion of trust that currently accompanies patient‐safety shortfalls while staying consistent with Americans’ preferences for a constrained government role with respect to medical care. (shrink)

Debate over the place of Christianity in European politics and society has made an important come-back. The Convention on the Future of Europe’s deliberations over the EU Constitution has thrown into relief the role of religion in defining ‘Europeanness’. In the context of a secularized Europe, Christianity is fighting for its institutional recognition and space in the public sphere. Religion may offer a cultural identity and work both to resist and to accommodate change. However, the Christian mobilization has been challenged (...) by those who defend the secular order. The debate over whether Christianity should be seen as constitutive of European identity has been framed by wider concerns about collective identities and memories in Europe. (shrink)

Die Welt ist voller Leid. Gott ist entweder unfähig, es zu verhindern – dann ist Er nicht allmächtig –, oder Er will es nicht verhindern – dann ist Er nicht vollkommen gut. Seit Generationen wird dies als das schlagendste Argument gegen den Glauben angesehen, daß ein allmächtiges und allgütiges Wesen existiert. Natürlich haben Theisten sich die größte Mühe gegeben, eine angemessene Erwiderung vorzubringen. ... Selbst wenn nur ein einziges Individuum unnötigerweise für einen kurzen Moment eine leichte Unannehmlichkeit zu ertragen hätte, (...) wäre das Problem logisch ebenso real – obwohl es nicht so schmerzhaft wäre oder möglicherweise sogar unbemerkt bliebe. (shrink)