This paper proposes an index of national levels of “intergenerational solidarity”, defined as “investments or sacrifices that are intended to increase or sustain the wellbeing of future generations”. This is measured by examining changes to the value and stability of various capital flows and stocks. Nine indicators are drawn from national-level statistics: forest degradation rate, share of low-carbon energy consumption, and carbon footprint in the environmental dimension; adjusted net savings, current account balance, and wealth in equality in the economic (...) dimension; and primary pupil-teacher ratio, fertility rate, and GDP-adjusted child mortality in the social dimension. This returns a comparative index score of intergenerational solidarity for 120 countries covering 92% of the world’s population. Throughout, the state of the current research on intergenerational transfers and on the individual metrics used is discussed, and suggestions are made for further improvements and work in measuring intergenerational solidarity. As it stands, the index provides the widest coverage of indicators and nations aimed at measuring any similar concept. As such, it is particularly useful for those who wish to investigate the causes of intergenerational solidarity through cross-cultural comparisons. Online Appendix. (shrink)

This paper is about time preferences, the phenomenon that the very same things are usually considered the less valuable the farther in the future they are obtained. The utilities of those things are discounted at a certain rate. The paper presents a novel normative argument for exponential discount rates, whatever their empirical adequacy. It proposes to take indexical utility seriously, i.e. utilities referring to indexical propositions (that speak of ‘I’, ‘now’, etc.) as opposed to non-indexical propositions. Economic focus is only (...) on the latter, while the former are neglected. The potential ignorance of when is now generates a difference between indexical and non-indexical utility that can be exploited for a novel argument in favour of exponential discount rates. (shrink)

The contemporary architectural rendering, digitally engineered and published in advance of construction, has come to resemble an image of an existing building so closely that it is hard to tell future from past. In constructing an appearance of an existing lived reality, which previously arose from the camera's re-presentation of the trace of past circumstances, has it now become possible to speak of the trace of future events? With regard to property as commodity, the more believable these projected forms, the (...) more capital may be invested, and the more likely it is that the depicted building will be constructed. Notwithstanding the possibly deceptive intentions of the image-maker, excess of signification becomes directly linked to the eventual existence of the building in that the more realistic it appears, the more likely it is to become reality. (shrink)

The expressions “now,” “today,” “tomorrow,” “yesterday,” “last month,” “a year ago,” “past,” “future,” “present,” and others like them are temporal indexicals. Temporal indexicals and dates are both quite different from names. Temporal indexicals often play an important part in philosophical arguments about time. An example is this claim of McTaggart's in his famous essay about the unreality of time. Role‐linking is the key to understanding why temporal indexicals are useful. The system of temporal indexicals and system of dates correspond to (...) two different but interconnecting ways people think about things – role‐based and descriptive. Both contrast with a third way, via detached notions. McTaggart's argument for the unreality of time has two sides. According to McTaggart, these two essential properties of time cannot be combined; people's concept of time is incoherent; there is not and could not be anything that fits the conception; time is unreal. (shrink)

The present study describes the development of an ongoing and systematic index to measure consumers’ sentiments towards business ethical practices. The Business Ethics Index (BEI) is based on the well established measurements of consumer sentiments, namely the ICS (Index of Consumer Sentiment) and CBCCI (Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index). The BEI is comprised of 4 measurements representing the dimensions of “personal-vicarious” and “past-future.” Data from 503 telephone interviews were used to calculate a BEI of 107. This (...) indicates an overall positive consumer sentiment towards the ethical behavior of business. Future calculations of the BEI are planned which will allow for the estimation of the latent dynamics of trends in consumer sentiments toward American business ethics. (shrink)

In accounts of indexicals, we encounter two problems: the problem of cognitive significance and the problem of cognitive dynamics. The problem of cognitive significance leads us to posit finer-grained sense content to account for the explanation of our actions and emotions. Meanwhile the problem of cognitive dynamics calls us to show how two episodes of thought can have the same fine-grained sense content even though they are expressed in different ways in different times and places. Bojislav Bozickovic offers a solution (...) to the problem of cognitive dynamics by using objects to tie together different ways in which a sense content might be expressed, and arguing that the sense expressions might become untied if we come to wonder if we are talking about the same object. I argue that this strategy raises a number of questions, and may lead to destabilization of our thought contents based on past and future concerns about object identity. (shrink)

The methodological underpinnings of studies into early specialization have recently been critiqued. Previous researchers have commented on the variety of, and over-simplified, methods used to capture early specialization. This exploratory study, therefore, suggests a new direction for how early specialization can be conceptualised and measured. We aim to create an index approach whereby early specialization is measured as a continuous variable, in line with commonly used definitions. The continuous variable for degrees of early specialization is calculated from a questionnaire (...) which captures the four key components of early specialization; 1) intensity, 2) year-round training, 3) single sport, and 4) commencing age 12 or younger. The proposed index approach is illustrated in a sample of 290 Swedish aesthetic performers aged 12-20 years (M = 15.88), whose descriptive statistics are used to discuss the suitability and usability of the measure. The proposed index approach functions as a guideline to future researchers. We hope that introducing a new index approach we will encourage further discussion around the measurement of early specialization. Additionally, we hope to pave the way for future research to explore more complex research questions. (shrink)

An adequate interpretation of concept of the propensity to communicate will thus lead us to interpret in this concept a possible formalization of the notion of the specious present, introduced into the field of psychology by William James at the end of the 19th Century. In this chapter, the authors introduce some aspects of the concept of time that their model operates under. While situating the actors in relation to each other in the network space, their propensity to communicate also (...) indexes the future opportunities that are open to them by their past trajectories. The authors conclude with a discussion of a supposed “ancestrality's paradox”, according to which such a primacy would pay no heed to ignoring events located in a temporality prior to the appearance of any life on earth, and well before that of Homo habilis. (shrink)

The present study expands the systematic measurement of consumers’ sentiments towards business ethical practices to the international arena. Data for the Business Ethics Index (BEI) were gathered in three countries of the European Union (UK, Germany, Spain). The Germans were the most pessimistic while the British were the most optimistic about the future ethical behaviour of businesses.

This chapter contains sections titled: Theism Alternatives to Theism Naturalism and Its Woes Conclusion.

Are there “social kinds” the way there are “natural kinds”? Are social sciences likely to hit upon “essences” the way natural sciences do? Or are all social phenomena purely theoretical constructs? Questions about whether there are natural kinds, what exactly they are and which kinds of phenomena they cover have been the object of heated epistemological and metaphysical debates. We think the issues can be clarified within the limits of the philosophy of language: by looking into what ranges of general (...) terms are perceived by speakers as rigid designators of natural kinds. The first step to take is to ground the various kinds of semantic externalism in distinct brands of semantic deference. Our focus is on spotting the words for which speakers would defer not to the current usage of the word in the linguistic community, nor to the current experts of the field to which the word pertains, but ultimately to the very nature of the referent of the term. When speakers’ deference conforms to that pattern, we argue, that is evidence that indexical externalism provides the right metasemantic account of how the meaning of the word is determined; the word is treated like a natural-kind term. But how can patterns of deference be measured? In an ongoing survey, which shows a kinship with work by Braisby et al., Jylkkä et al., and Genone & Lombrozo, we confront participants with conditions that may prompt them to revise certain classificatory statements. Each condition makes salient one of the targets we have identified for deference: the community usage, the experts, the ‘world as it is’. In the condition that seeks to tap into the latter kind of deference, participants are presented with a scenario in which future scientific discoveries result in excluding from the extension of a term certain members currently thought to fall under that extension. Our reasoning is that, if participants significantly modify their statements in the light of that scenario, they can be taken to ‘defer’ to the nature of the referent, thus vindicating indexical externalism. We test if words not normally assumed to be natural-kind terms, including terms for social phenomena, exhibit patterns of deference similar to those for natural-kind terms. If so, speakers have something like realist intuitions with respect to words whose meaning is usually taken to be purely conventional or polemical, and there’s therefore a case for an extension of indexical externalism beyond its usual boundaries. Braisby, N., Franks, B. & Hampton, J. 1996. Essentialism, word use, and concepts. Cognition 59, 247-74./Genone, J. & Lombrozo, T. 2012. Concept possession, experimental semantics, and hybrid theories of reference. Philosophical Psychology 25, 717-742./Jylkkä, J., Railo, H. & Haukioja, J. 2009. Psychological essentialism and semantic externalism: Evidence for externalism in lay speakers’ language use. Philosophical Psychology 22, 37-60./Schwarz, S. 1983. Reply to Kornblith and Nelson. The Southern Journal of Philosophy 21, 475-481. (shrink)

This study continues the systematic measurement of consumers’ sentiments toward business ethical practices first measured in 2004. The Business Ethics Index (BEI) comprises the four measurements representing the dimensions of “personal–vicarious” and “past–future”. A professional telephone interviewing company was hired to collect five consecutive waves of 1045 telephone interviews in an omnibus procedure. The collection of the five waves represented a sampling process which enables the creation of confidence intervals for this, and subsequent, measurements of the BEI. The overall (...) BEI fell to 102.6 (from a revized 108.7 in 2004). The drop was attributed to a fall in consumer expectations of the future ethical behavior of business. (shrink)

Theoretical justification for the Business Ethics Index (BEI) from the emerging economics of trust literature is discussed. The BEI results for 2007, 2008, and 2009 are presented. While the Personal/Past BEI component shows no significant difference from the previous years, the Vicarious/Past component shows a dramatic drop to levels previously never recorded.However, when it came to the perception of the future business ethical behavior, respondents were significantly more optimistic than in previous measurements.This finding was more than a little surprising (...) given the depth of the economic crisis. A possible explanation is that consumers hopefully perceived the economic crisis as already abating and/or that at least the worst was over. (shrink)

In the present article, the concept of Human Development Index has been revisited so as to integrate the human values using the Corruption Perception Index measured by Transparency International, for different countries, as a simple generalization within the framework of existing Anand and Sen’s and Haq’s prescription. In this framework, a geometrical average of three indices corresponding to three dimensions, namely, the life expectancy, years of schooling and standard of living, was taken. In order to have HDI in (...) broader perspective, one has to integrate another important dimension known as human values. The main hypotheses of this article are: human values play an important role in human development; CPI has a strong correlation with HDI; and CPI is intimately linked with the outcome of human values. The important finding of this article is the successful establishment of these hypotheses which brought appreciable changes in the HDI when human values are integrated with it. As a result, most of the countries showed a vast decline in HDI, affecting the respective ranking of different countries. Such a value-based HDI is supposed to motivate even the richer countries to improve their HDI ranking in future. (shrink)

This book considers the semantic and syntactic nature of indexicals - linguistic expressions, as in I, you, this, that, yesterday, tomorrow , whose reference shifts from utterance to utterance.There is a long-standing controversy as to whether the semantic reference point is already present as syntactic material or whether it is introduced post-syntactically by semantic rules of interpretation. Alessandra Giorgi resolves this controversy through an empirically grounded exploration of temporal indexicality, arguing that the speaker's temporal location is specified in the syntactic (...) structure. She supports her analysis with theoretical and empirical arguments based on data from English, Italian, Chinese, and Romanian. Professor Giorgi addresses some difficult and longstanding issues in the analysis of temporal phenomena - including the Italian imperfect indicative, the properties of the so-called future-in-the-past, and the properties of Free Indirect Discourse - and shows that her framework can account elegantly for all of them. Carefully argued, succinct, and clearly written her book will appeal widely to semanticists in linguistics and philosophy from graduate level upwards and to linguists interested in the syntax-semantics interface. (shrink)

The future has become a problem for the present. Almost every critical issue is now understood and experienced through the prism of the future since this is the primary focus for the playing out of crises. Senses of the Future offers a wide-ranging discussion of theories of the future. It covers the main ideas of the future in modern thought and explores how we should view the future today in light of a plurality of very different and conflicting visions. The (...) key contribution of this book is to bring together the different approaches with an account that is grounded in sociological and philosophical analysis as opposed to visions of the future that are inspired by extreme visions of catastrophe or approaches that see the future as only the continuation of the present. Given a revival of apocalyptical visions of the ‘end times’ and dystopian views of the future of human societies, there is urgent need for a new approach on how we should imagine the future. The author explores the future as a field of tensions that is revealed in narratives, utopian desires, hope, imaginaries, and social struggles concerning the potential possibilities of the present: the future does not just arrive; it has to be fought for. This book is an important contribution to a critical sociology of the future. It is both a work of reconstruction and critique grounded in a historical and philosophical hermeneutics of the future. Table of Contents Chapter One Introduction: Conflicting Visions of the Future Contested Visions of the Future Today Return to the Future Outline of the Chapters References Chapter Two When is the Future? The Problem of Time and the Human Condition Time in the Physical World: Lessons from Physics Has the Future already Begun? Time and History Time, Life, and the Human Condition: Biology, Evolution, and Culture Conclusion References Chapter Three Lessons from the Past: What Does the Past Tell Us about the Future? The Future in the Past Failed Societies and Civilizational Collapse Catastrophes and History Conclusion References Chapter Four Modernity and the Concept of the Future: Utopia, Progress, and Prophecy The Future as Expectation The Future as an Imaginary and the Emergence of Utopianism The Future as Possibility The Future as Experience Conclusion References Chapter Five Ideas of the Future in the Twentieth Century: Futurism, Modernism, Sociology, and Political Theory New Political Ideas of the Future after 1945 Responses to the Future: From Fear of the Future to Futurology Sociological Theory and the Future Conclusion: The New Sociology of the Future References Chapter Six Critical Theory and the Future: The Sources of Transcendence The Intellectual Origins of Critical Theory: A Brief Outline The Idea of the Future in the Critical Theory of the Early Frankfurt School Habermas and the Communication Paradigm The Responsibility Paradigm and Cosmopolitanism: Jonas and Apel Critical Cosmopolitanism and the Idea of the Future Conclusion: Cultural Models and the Future as Possibility References Chapter Seven Conclusion: In The Shadow of the Future Do We Need a Theory of the Future? Are we already in a New Historical Era? AI and a Posthuman Future Struggles for the Future References Index. (shrink)

An integrated hog futures price forecasting model based on whale optimization algorithm, LightGBM, and Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise is proposed to overcome the limitations of a single machine learning model with low prediction accuracy and insufficient model stability. The simulation process begins with a grey correlation analysis of the hog futures price index system in order to identify influencing factors; after that, the WOA-LightGBM model is developed, and the WOA algorithm is used to (...) optimize the LightGBM model parameters; and, finally, the residual sequence is decomposed and corrected by using the CEEMDAN method to build a combined WOA-LightGBM-CEEMDAN model. Furthermore, it is used for comparison experiments to check the validity of the model by using data from CSI 300 stock index futures. Based on all experimental results, the proposed combined model shows the highest prediction accuracy, surpassing the comparative model. The model proposed in this study is accurate enough to meet the forecasting accuracy requirements and provides an effective method for forecasting future prices. (shrink)

In this paper, I defend a theory of local temporality, sometimes referred to as a point-present theory. This theory has the great advantage that it allows for the possibility of an open future without requiring any alterations to our standard understanding of special relativity. Such theories, however, have regularly been rejected out of hand as metaphysically incoherent. After surveying the debate, I argue that such a transformation of temporal concepts (i) is suggested by the indexical semantics of tense in a (...) relativistic universe, (ii) when properly understood easily withstands the usual accusations of metaphysical incoherence and (iii) leads naturally to a meta-philosophical position from which we can understand and escape the increasing sterility of debates between radical Parmenideans and radical Heracliteans in the philosophy of time. (shrink)

Acknowledgements -- Introduction: transformation, potential, futures -- Screening affect : images, representational thinking and the actualization of the virtual -- Bringing the image to life : interactive mirrors and intensive experience -- Becoming different : makeover television, proximity and immediacy -- Immanent measure : interaction, attractors and the multiple temporalities of online dieting -- Pre-empting the future : obesity, prediction and change4life -- Conclusion : transforming images : sociology, the future and the virtual -- Bibliography -- Index.

In Kripke-semantics for modal logic, the truth value of a sentence depends on the choice of a semantic index. It means that application of such semantics to natural language analysis requires indication of an index relevant for semantic analysis. It is commonly accepted that the relevant index is initialised by the context of an utterance. The idea has been rejected by the semanticists investigating tempo-modal languages in the framework of indeterminism, which generated the problem of initialization of (...) the semantic index. I present the main argument of those semanticists and describe several responses to the initialisation problem. I finally argue that under certain metaphysical and semantic assumptions, one can respond to the initialisation failure in the classical way, even in indeterministic contexts. (shrink)

The systematic measurement of consumers’ sentiments toward business ethical practices is expanded to two emerging economies in Asia (China and India). The Chinese were very optimistic about the future ethical behavior of businesses, while the Indians recorded the lowest BEI scores yet. Chinese consumers were very concerned with product issues, while Indians were concerned equally about low quality products and excessive prices.

Precipitation deficit causes meteorological drought, and its continuation appears as other different types of droughts including hydrological, agricultural, economic, and social droughts. Multivariate Standardized Precipitation Index can show the drought status from the perspective of different drought types simultaneously. Forecasting multivariate droughts can provide good information about the future status of a region and will be applicable for the planners of different water divisions. In this study, the MLP model and its hybrid form with the Imperialistic Competitive Algorithm have (...) been investigated for the first time in multivariate drought studies. For this purpose, two semi-arid stations of western Iran were selected, and their precipitation data were provided from the Iranian Meteorological Organization, during the period of 1988–2017. MSPI was calculated in 5-time windows of the multivariate drought, including MSPI3–6, MSPI6–12, MSPI3–12, MSPI12–24, and MSPI24–48. The results showed acceptable performances in forecasting multivariate droughts. In both stations, the larger time windows had better predictions than the smaller ones. Generally, it can be reported that, by decreasing the size of the time window, the gradual changes of the index give way to sudden jumps. This causes weaker autocorrelation and consequently weaker predictions, e.g., forecasting droughts from the perspective of soil moisture and surface hydrology simultaneously. The hybrid MLP-ICA shows stronger prediction results than the simple MLP model in all comparisons. The ICA optimizer could averagely improve MLP’s accuracy by 28.5%, which is a significant improvement. According to the evaluations, the results are hopeful for simultaneous forecasting of different drought types and can be tested for other similar areas. (shrink)

The paper presents an indexical semantics, based on times and worlds, for some of Prior's logics concerned with issues such as foreknowledge and determinism. In that sense Prior's logic of futurity can be presented as a completely standard modal/tense logic.

The Mobile Phone Addiction Index is a short instrument to assess mobile phone addiction. The Chinese version of this scale has been widely used in Chinese students and shows promising psychometric characteristics. The present study tested the construct validity and measurement invariance of the MPAI by gender in middle school adolescents. The data were collected from 1,395 high school students. Confirmatory factor analysis and multiple-group CFA for invariance tests were conducted on the MPAI model which consisted of 17 observed (...) items and 4 latent factors. Findings showed that the data fit the four-factor structure model well for both males and females. Furthermore, configural, metric, scalar, and residual invariance were established by gender. The results indicated that the MPAI has acceptable psychometric properties when used in adolescents. In addition, with the strict invariance requirements being satisfied, the underlying factor scores for MPAI can be meaningfully compared across genders. To our knowledge, this study is the first attempt to test the measurement invariance of the MPAI across male and female adolescents. Our results will support future research on mobile phone addiction in adolescents. (shrink)

Understanding how impactful scientific articles were funded informs future funding decisions. The structural significance of articles is broken down into two submeasures: citation count and “generativity”. Generativity is an attempt to provide a quantitative operationalization of transformativeness, a concept often used as a funding criterion despite not being a well-defined construct. This report identifies highly impactful and generative publications indexed in the subject area of psychology in the Web of Science in the year 2002. Publications that reported funding sources were (...) found to be more generative than those that did not, and research that was privately funded was found to be more generative than publicly funded research. This analysis is exploratory, and hopefully contributes to a foundation for future empirical investigations into the structure and nature of transformative science that granting agencies would want to fund. (shrink)

In 2004, Google embarked on a massive book digitization project. Forty library partners and billions of scanned pages later, Google Book Search has provided searchable text access to millions of books. While many details of Google’s conversion processes remain proprietary secret, here we piece together their general outlines by closely examining Google Book Search products, Google patents, and the entanglement of libraries and computer scientists in the longer history of digitization work. We argue that far from simply “scanning” books, Google’s (...) efforts may be characterized as algorithmic digitization, strongly shaped by an equation of digital access with full-text searchability. We explore the consequences of Google’s algorithmic digitization system for what end users ultimately do and do not see, placing these effects in the context of the multiple technical, material, and legal challenges surrounding Google Book Search. By approaching digitization primarily as a text extraction and indexing challenge—an effort to convert print books into electronically searchable data—GBS enacts one possible future for books, in which they are defined largely by their textual content. (shrink)