This study is to explore the optimization of the adaptive genetic algorithm in the backpropagation neural network, so as to expand the application of the BPNN model in nonlinear issues. Traffic flow prediction is undertaken as a research case to analyse the performance of the optimized BPNN. Firstly, the advantages and disadvantages of the BPNN and genetic algorithm are analyzed based on their working principles, and the AGA is improved and optimized. Secondly, the optimized AGA is applied to optimize (...) the standard BPNN, and the optimized algorithm is named as OAGA-BPNN. Finally, three different cases are proposed based on the actual scenario of traffic flow prediction to analyse the optimized algorithm on the matrix laboratory platform by simulation. The results show that the average error distribution of the GA-BPNN algorithm is about 1% with small fluctuation range, better calculation accuracy, and generalization performance in contrast to the BPNN. The average output error of the AGA-BPNN fluctuates around 0 and remains in a relatively stable range as a whole in contrast to that of GA-BPNN; the maximum fitness level keeps increasing during the evolution process but approaches the average value in later process, so the population diversity is hard to be guaranteed. The output error of the OAGA-BPNN fluctuates little compared with that of AGA-BPNN, and its maximum fitness continues to increase in the evolution process with guaranteed population diversity. In short, the OAGA-BPNN algorithm can achieve the best performance in terms of calculation accuracy, generalization performance, and population evolution. (shrink)

With the rapid development of the Internet information age, social networks, mobile Internet, and e-commerce have expanded the scope of Internet applications. The “big data” era is a challenge and chance for companies and has a great impact on social economy, politics, culture, and people’s lives. An accurate marketing system is developed based on J2EE, and the architecture is selected from the user layer, business logic layer, and data layer and the B/S3 layer application, including three layers of crip-dm and (...) semma. And, other process methods are used. Data-mining-based marketing system information solutions consist of several parts, such as requirement analysis, design, implementation, and testing. This paper introduces data mining technology to the marketing business based on the practical use and design IT solutions for precision marketing, attribute selection tools, attribute analysis tools, modeling prediction tools, and others. This paper introduces a precision marketing system based on data mining technology. The system passes the actual test and the deployment and the operation of this system are confirmed. The system, which can improve marketing activity, is tested, and the development and operation of this system markedly increase the company’s earnings. (shrink)

In order to better assist investors in the evaluation and decision-making of financial data, this paper puts forward the need to build a reliable and effective financial data prediction model and, on the basis of financial data analysis, integrates deep learning algorithm to analyze financial data and completes the financial data analysis system based on deep learning. This paper introduces the implementation details of the key modules of the platform in detail. The user interaction module obtains and displays the retrieval (...) results through data parsing, calling the background, and computing engine. The data cleaning module fills, optimizes, and normalizes the data through business experience; the calculation engine module uses the algorithm and extracts the database information to get the similar time series and matching financial model. Finally, the data acquisition module fills the database with historical data at the initialization stage and updates the database every day. The data analysis platform for quantitative trading designed and implemented in this paper has carried out demand analysis, design, implementation, and test. From the perspective of function test and performance test, two functions of similar stock search and financial matching model are selected and tested, and the results are in line with the expected results. (shrink)

The output stability of the photovoltaic system is directly affected by temperature change of PV panels. In this paper, a novel temperature prediction method of PV panels with support vector machine is proposed, which can solve the temperature prediction problem in a complex environment. In order to optimize parameters of SVM, a Pigeon-Inspired Optimization method is given. Meanwhile, the delay factor is added to improve the PIO algorithm for avoiding the problem of local optimum. Moreover, a multisensor monitoring system (...) of PV is established, and the collected data of temperature are used to train and verify the accuracy of the model. Finally, the proposed method is evaluated using synthetic and actual data sets. Simulation results show that the DFPIO-SVM can obtain better predictive performance. (shrink)

The gray prediction model, based on the GM method, is an important branch of gray theory with the most active research and the most fruitful results, and it is the most widely used because of its small sample size, simple modeling process, and easy to use. Such advantages have been successfully applied in many fields such as transportation, agriculture, energy, medicine, and environment and have been gradually developed into a mainstream predictive modeling method. This study combines the Three-parameter Whitenization Grey (...) Model ), which fits the inhomogeneous exponential law sequence, and the Particle Swarm Algorithm to optimize the order and background value coefficients under the condition of the minimum sum of squares of simulation errors, and hence, to solve the problem that the cumulative order is fixed to “1” and the background value coefficient value is fixed to “0.5.” As a result, a parameter-optimized gray system model with flexibility, adaptability, and dynamic adjustment is designed to simulate and predict China’s higher education gross enrollment rate. The application shows that the model has better overall simulation and prediction performance than others. On the one hand, the parametric optimization model significantly improves its own performance, and on the other hand, its intelligent and adjustable adaptivity improves the accuracy and further extends its application. (shrink)

The predictive coding (PC) theory of attention identifies attention with the optimization of the precision weighting of prediction error. Here we provide some challenges for this identification. On the one hand, the precision weighting of prediction error is too broad a phenomenon to be identified with attention because such weighting plays a central role in multimodal integration. Cases of crossmodal illusions such as the rubber hand illusion and the McGurk effect involve the differential precision weighting of prediction error, yet (...) attention does not shift as one would predict. On the other hand, the precision weighting of prediction error is too narrow a phenomenon to be identified with attention, because it cannot accommodate the full range of attentional phenomena. We review criticisms that PC cannot account for volitional attention and affect-biased attention, and we propose that it may not be able to account for feature-based and intellectual attention. (shrink)

Predicting suspended sediment load in water resource management requires efficient and reliable predicted models. This study considers the support vector regression method to predict daily suspended sediment load. Since the SVR has unknown parameters, the observer-teacher-learner-based Optimization method is integrated with the SVR model to provide a novel hybrid predictive model. The SVR combined with the genetic algorithm is used as an alternative model. To explore the performance and application of the proposed models, five input combinations of rainfall and (...) discharge data of Cham Siah River catchment are provided. The predictive models are assessed using various numerical and visual indicators. The results indicate that the SVR-OTLBO model offers a higher prediction performance than other models employed in the current study. Specifically, SVR-OTLBO model offers highest Pearson correlation coefficient, Willmott’s Index, ratio of performance to IQ, and modified index of agreement and the lowest relative root mean square error in comparison with SVR-GA and SVR models, respectively. (shrink)

Flow prediction in a vegetated channel has been extensively studied in the past few decades. A number of equations that essentially differ from each other in derivation and form have been developed. Because the process is extremely complex, getting the deterministic or analytical form of the process phenomena is too difficult. Hybrid neural network model is particularly useful in modeling processes where an adequate knowledge of the physics is limited. This hybrid model is presented here as a complementary tool to (...) model channel flow–vegetation interactions in submerged vegetation conditions. The hybrid model is used to overcome the local minima limitations of a feed-forward neural network. The prediction capability of model has been found to be better than past empirical predictors. The model developed herein showed significantly better results in several model performance criteria compared with empirical models. (shrink)

In the chemical production process, the temperature of the continuous reactor has nonlinear characteristics such as large inertia. An improved autodisturbance control method is proposed. By improving the tracking differentiator with adjustable parameters, the expanded state observer and the control structure obtained an improved automatic disturbance rejection control model and realized the optimal control of the nonlinear and large-delay systems. On the process control training system, the experiment of the continuous system process flow is compared with the anti-interference of the (...) Smith predictive compensation system, which uses an optimal set of data. The reactor temperature fluctuates, but the self-resistance is improved. The optimal overshoot of the disturbance is close to 0. Compared with the original antidisturbance controller, the antidisturbance time is not affected by the number of iterations, which reduces the high requirements on the accuracy of the parameters. Therefore, the improved automatic disturbance rejection control improves the operation and enhances the ability to resist external disturbance that changes the controlled object. (shrink)

Disturbance-generated biomass results from endogenous and exogenous natural and cultural disturbances that affect the health and productivity of forest ecosystems. These disturbances can create large quantities of plant biomass on predictable cycles. A systems analysis model has been developed to quantify aspects of system capacities (harvest, transportation, and processing), spatial aspects of the biomass generation process, and deterioration impacts on biomass quality in the various inventory states (field stands, field-harvested inventories, transportation prepared inventories, and production facility inventories). Optimal decision alternatives (...) can be used to guide responses to reclamation, utilization, mitigation, and control. This is particularly advantageous in insect and disease outbreaks, in which the process may last several years, with varying levels of intensity. The prescriptive system description, assuming capacities are fixed, results in a linear programming model. The time-dependent capacity decision model results in a mixed-integer programming model. The analytical model is developed in detail in this analysis. (shrink)

Many apparently complex mechanisms in biology, especially in embryology and molecular biology, can be explained easily by reasoning at the level of the “efficient cause” of the observed phenomenology: the mechanism can then be explained by a simple geometrical argument or a variational principle, leading to the solution of an optimization problem, for example, via the co-existence of a minimization and a maximization problem . Passing from a microscopic level to the macroscopic level often involves an averaging effect that (...) gives birth to a global functional feature . We will illustrate these general principles by building in four different domains of application “a minima” models and showing the main properties of their solutions: extraction of a minimal RNA structure functioning as the first “peptidic machine,” a kind of ancestral ribosome; study of a genetic regulatory network of Drosophila centred on Engrailed gene and expressing successively two genes inside a limit cycle; study of a genetic network regulating neural activity and proliferation in mammals; and study of a simple geometric model of epiboly in zebrafish. (shrink)

Application of the reliability of repairable systems on solving problems from constructing production systems takes an important place in the process of finding the optimal solution among the suggested system choices. The basic hypothesis when using the reliability of the repairable systems is that every machine is representing a component, a fact that is debatable when talking about technical sciences. However, considering the second assumption of the stationary process, the function of the availability is introduced. It represents the measure between (...) the reliability and the benefit of maintaining the components and the system as a whole one. An additional and the last reason for analyzing constructing machine as a whole one has an economic reason. From the aspect of the total cost and the capacity of the system, the function of the availability is catching more and more impact in the process of determinating the total cost in bill of quantities as the most important part of tender documents. Until former works, techno-economic optimisation usually ran over when choosing the system of the construction machines. In the work, there are shown the methodologies for gathering and analyzing the indicators of availabilities per unit of a company's machine park. The time of demission and reparation have been investigated among 34 components in the period of 6 years. Based on the obtained result for different conditions of machine exploitation and facilities, it is suggested the methodology of the future behaviour of the corresponding within the model optimization availability of constructing production system with the aim of eliminating extra criterion. The suggested model takes in consideration the total cost of the components when they are functional, and when they are not. This kind of approach enables the one who take choices decision of the height of profits, in the lenght of work in function of the projection of cash flow and managing with real indicators of functioning the system at the project level. Given the fact that the maintanance policy of machines is based on availability, and not on reliability of components, with the aim of maximizing the availability of different budget scenarios, a logical approach to the selection of the objective function in the terms of management of construction production systems is to minimize costs for a given availability of system constructing machinery is based on the use of historical data base with the values of the operational availability of components, conditions in which they function, in the process of forecasting the project availability for projects that follow. Ranking variant solutions is the result of the adopted function of the aim as a consequence due to enlargement methods of availability for serial parallel systems with the associated restrictions. For optimal system availability is taken a value that belongs to minimal total cost. However, it is predicted that after the end of the financial year, the real and projected indicators of system functions get compared to each other. Informational support to the proposed model is informational company system, which was built in the PHP programming language on the Linux software platform, and with data based in My SQL. The suggested model is tested on the system for the production and embedding bitumen bound materials on the specific project. Obtained results confirm the assumptions used in work. (shrink)

With the continuous improvement of the level of science and technology, the popularization of the Internet and the development of applications, online consumption has become a major force in personal consumption. As a result, digital consumption is born, and digital consumption is not only reflected in transaction consumption at the monetary level. Like some intangible services similar to the use of dating software, it can also become digital consumption. In this environment, a new economic concept, the digital economy, has emerged (...) as the times require. The digital economy helps to achieve the rapid optimal allocation and regeneration of resources and achieve high-quality economic development. Therefore, as a new economic form, the digital economy has penetrated into all fields of human society. The Canopy algorithm is a fast clustering technique that requires only one pass through the data technology to get the results. But it is inaccurate for large-scale data clustering. Therefore, when analyzing the data, it is necessary to use the Canopy algorithm for preliminary clustering, and then combine with other algorithms or model software for refinement. This article introduces the development of the digital economy in the Internet era. It conducts a theoretical discussion on consumer psychology in the context of the digital economy. It introduces the basic calculation formula of the clustering algorithm and the algorithm flow of the Canopy clustering algorithm. It does model optimization for the Canopy clustering algorithm. On this basis, it designs questionnaires for experimental design. The indicators are divided into commodity attributes and consumer psychology. It builds a consumer psychology prediction model and tests the prediction results. The results show that the maximum difference between the prediction results of digital economy consumption psychology based on the Canopy clustering algorithm and the actual results is 0.047. It can be shown that the psychological prediction model of digital economy consumption based on the Canopy clustering algorithm has certain practicability. (shrink)

Connected vehicle fleets have formed significant component of industrial internet of things scenarios as part of Industry 4.0 worldwide. The number of vehicles in these fleets has grown at a steady pace. The vehicles monitoring with machine learning algorithms has significantly improved maintenance activities. Predictive maintenance potential has increased where machines are controlled through networked smart devices. Here, benefits are accrued considering uptimes optimization. This has resulted in reduction of associated time and labor costs. It has also provided significant (...) increase in cost benefit ratios. Considering vehicle fault trends in this research predictive maintenance problem is addressed through hybrid deep learning-based ensemble method (HDLEM). The ensemble framework which acts as predictive analytics engine comprises of three deep learning algorithms viz modified cox proportional hazard deep learning (MCoxPHDL), modified deep learning embedded semi supervised learning (MDLeSSL) and merged LSTM (MLSTM) networks. Both sensor as well as historical maintenance data are collected and prepared using benchmarking methods for HDLEM training and testing. Here, times between failures (TBF) modeling and prediction on multi-source data are successfully achieved. The results obtained are compared with stated deep learning models. This ensemble framework offers great potential towards achieving more profitable, efficient and sustainable vehicle fleet management solutions. This helps better telematics data implementation which ensures preventative management towards desired solution. The ensemble method's superiority is highlighted through several experimental results. (shrink)

A model predictive control method based on recursive backpropagation neural network and genetic algorithm is proposed for a class of nonlinear systems with time delays and uncertainties. In the offline modeling stage, a multistep-ahead predictor with GA-RBP neural network is designed, where GA-BP neural network is used as a one-step prediction model and GA is employed to train the initial weights and bias of the BP neural network. The incorporation of GA into RBP can reduce the possibility of the BP (...) neural network falling into a local optimum instead of reaching global optimization. In the online optimizing stage, a multistep-ahead GA-RBP neural network predictor and an improved gradient descent method are proposed to efficiently solve the online optimization problem of nonlinear MPC by minimizing a modified quadratic criterion. The designed MPC strategy can avoid information loss while linearizing the controlled system and computing the Hessian matrix and its inverse matrix. Experimental results show that the proposed approach can reduce the computational burden and improve the performance of MPC for the solution of nonlinear controlled systems. (shrink)

An Artificial Intelligence algorithm trained on data that reflect racial biases may yield racially biased outputs, even if the algorithm on its own is unbiased. For example, algorithms used to schedule medical appointments in the USA predict that Black patients are at a higher risk of no-show than non-Black patients, though technically accurate given existing data that prediction results in Black patients being overwhelmingly scheduled in appointment slots that cause longer wait times than non-Black patients. This perpetuates racial inequity, in (...) this case lesser access to medical care. This gives rise to one type of Accuracy-Fairness trade-off: preserve the efficiency offered by using AI to schedule appointments or discard that efficiency in order to avoid perpetuating ethno-racial disparities. Similar trade-offs arise in a range of AI applications including others in medicine, as well as in education, judicial systems, and public security, among others. This article presents a framework for addressing such trade-offs where Machine Learning and Optimization components of the algorithm are decoupled. Applied to medical appointment scheduling, our framework articulates four approaches intervening in different ways on different components of the algorithm. Each yields specific results, in one case preserving accuracy comparable to the current state-of-the-art while eliminating the disparity. (shrink)

Students’ performance is an important factor for the evaluation of teaching quality in colleges. The aim of this study is to propose a novel intelligent approach to predict students’ performance using support vector regression optimized by an improved duel algorithm. To the best of our knowledge, few research studies have been developed to predict students’ performance based on student behavior, and the novelty of this study is to develop a new hybrid intelligent approach in this field. According to the obtained (...) results, the IDA-SVR model clearly outperformed the other models by achieving less mean square error. In other words, IDA-SVR with an MSE of 0.0089 has higher performance than DT with an MSE of 0.0326, SVR with an MSE of 0.0251, ANN with an MSE of 0.0241, and PSO-SVR with an MSE of 0.0117. To investigate the efficacy of IDA, other parameter optimization methods, that is, the direct determination method, grid search method, GA, FA, and PSO, are used for a comparative study. The results show that the IDA algorithm can effectively avoid the local optima and the blindness search and can definitely improve the speed of convergence to the optimal solution. (shrink)

The irreversibility in time, the multicausality on lines, and the uncertainty of feedbacks make economic systems and the predictions of economic chaotic time series possess the characteristics of high dimensionalities, multiconstraints, and complex nonlinearities. Based on genetic algorithm and fuzzy rules, the chaotic genetics combined with fuzzy decision-making can use simple, fast, and flexible means to complete the goals of automation and intelligence that are difficult to traditional predicting algorithms. Moreover, the new combined method’s ergodicity can perform nonrepetitive searches (...) in a global scope, hence improving the algorithm’s accuracy and efficiency. On the basis of summarizing and analyzing previous research works, this paper expounded the research status and significance of the prediction of economic chaotic time series, elaborated the development background, current status, and future challenges of the combined algorithm of chaotic genetics with fuzzy decision, introduced the basic principles of chaotic genetic algorithm and fuzzy decision algorithm, constructed a prediction model for economic chaotic time series, performed parameter synchronization optimization and moderate function construction, analyzed the prediction processes of economic chaotic time series, conducted phase space reconstruction and correlation dimension calculation, and finally carried out a simulation experiment with its result analysis. The study results show that the algorithm of chaotic genetics combined with fuzzy decision-making can dynamically adjust chaotic mutation operators and summarize fussy expert experiences. The phase space of its reconstructed chaotic attractor has high-precision predictability and can find orderly processes from changeable economic results, which in turn can be used to analyze and predict the complex economic chaotic time series. The study results of this paper provide a reference for further research on predictive analysis of economic chaotic time series based on chaotic genetics combined with fuzzy decision algorithm. (shrink)

The recent increase in the road transportation necessitates scheduling to reduce the adverse impacts of the road transportation and evaluate the effectiveness of previous actions taken in this context. However, it is impossible to undertake the scheduling and evaluation tasks unless previous information are available to predict the future. The grey model requires a limited volume of data for estimating the behavior of an unknown system. It provides high-accuracy predictions based on few data points. Various grey prediction models have (...) been proposed so far, in which three different approaches are followed to increase the accuracy: (1) data preprocessing, (2) improved equation models, and (3) error improvement or error balancing. In this paper, firstly, a theorem is proposed and proved to recognize the parameters affecting two grey models, namely GM(1, 1) and FGM(1, 1). Then, the effective parameters are adjusted through particle swarm optimization (PSO) to formulate two adjusted models, namely IGM(1, 1) and IFGM(1, 1). According to the simulation results of the proposed models, accuracy of the modeling improved by a minimum of 14.24% and a maximum of 82.39%. Finally, the number of users of a public road transportation system was predicted using the proposed models. The results showed enhanced accuracy (by 7.7%) of the proposed models for predicting the number of users of the public road transportation system. (shrink)

In the agriculture development and growth, the efficient machinery and equipment plays an important role. Various research studies are involved in the implementation of the research and patents to aid the smart agriculture and authors and reviewers that machine leaning technologies are providing the best support for this growth. To explore machine learning technology and machine learning algorithms, the most of the applications are studied based on the swarm intelligence optimization. An optimized V3CFOA-RF model is built through V3CFOA. The (...) algorithm is tested in the data set collected concerning rice pests, later analyzed and compared in detail with other existing algorithms. The research result shows that the model and algorithm proposed are not only more accurate in recognition and prediction, but also solve the time lagging problem to a degree. The model and algorithm helped realize a higher accuracy in crop pest prediction, which ensures a more stable and higher output of rice. Thus they can be employed as an important decision-making instrument in the agricultural production sector. (shrink)

The harmful consequences of fossil fuels use has resulted in the promotion of clean and renewable energies. During the past decades, green technologies have experienced a strong development, paying especial attention to wind energy, that covers a significant share of the electric energy demand. In this context, the main efforts are focused on the optimization of wind generator facilities, not only in the mechanic design but also in the energy management. Then, the present work deals with the prediction of (...) the energy generated in a small wind turbine placed in a bioclimatic house located on the north west region of Spain. This includes an analysis of the characteristics of the atmospheric variables registered during the turbine operation for a period of one year and an exploratory examination of a range of regression techniques in order to assess the suitability of using the registered information to predict the installation’s power generation levels on the short term. The study detailed in this work proves that this objective is an attainable one with a good degree of accuracy. (shrink)

Since the opening of the economy, China’s regional economy has developed rapidly, the overall national strength has been increasing, and the people’s living standards have been continuously improved. The issue of coordinated regional development has become an important issue in today’s society. Genetic algorithm is a kind of prediction algorithm that has developed rapidly in recent years and is widely used. However, when solving engineering prediction problems, there are often problems such as premature convergence and easiness to fall into local (...) optimal solutions. Therefore, on the basis of studying the related theories of genetic algorithm and artificial immune algorithm, this paper uses the advantages of the two algorithms, combines the two algorithms, and proposes an improved algorithm for genetic algorithm-adaptive immune genetic algorithm. Taking genetic algorithm as the basic framework, the operators and selection methods of artificial immune algorithm are integrated. Using the adaptive concept, the formulas of adaptive crossover probability and mutation probability are innovatively designed. Compared with the fixed value of the immune genetic algorithm, the introduction of the adaptive concept can intelligently adjust the optimization process and increase the optimization speed. Considering the double uncertain factors of product market demand and waste product recycling in the remanufacturing supply chain system, the maximization of logistics network operating profit, the minimization of environmental impact, and the maximization of customer satisfaction are the forecast goals. The market demand of uncertain products is effectively controlled through the option contract mechanism, and a multiobjective forecasting model based on the option contract mechanism is established. According to the characteristics of the model, an improved immune genetic algorithm is designed to solve the problem, and the effectiveness of the immune genetic algorithm is verified through an example. (shrink)

This article argues that evolutionary models based on selection validate, under appropriate conditions, the relevance of optimality as an explanatory mechanism in rational choice theory. The reason is that these frameworks share the mechanism that drives the results, namely, optimization, even if they situate it at different levels. The consequences of our argument are twofold. First, it resolves the tension between those predictions of rational choice theory that are accurate and the evidence showing that individuals seldom optimize. Second, (...) it relativizes the explanatory import of rationality without diminishing the role of optimization as a mechanism. (shrink)

In this paper, based on computer reading and processing of music frequency, amplitude, timbre, image pixel, color filling, and so forth, a method of image style transfer guided by music feature data is implemented in real-time playback, using existing music files and image files, processing and trying to reconstruct the fluent relationship between the two in terms of auditory and visual, generating dynamic, musical sound visualization with real-time changes in the visualization. Although recommendation systems have been well developed in real (...) applications, the limitations of CF algorithms are slowly coming to light as the number of people increases day by day, such as the data sparsity problem caused by the scarcity of rated items, the cold start problem caused by new items and new users. The work is dynamic, with real-time changes in music and sound. Taking portraits as an experimental case, but allowing users to customize the input of both music and image files, this new visualization can provide users with a personalized service of mass customization and generate personalized portraits according to personal preferences. At the same time, we take advantage of the BP neural network’s ability to handle complex nonlinear problems and construct a rating prediction model between the user and item attribute features, referred to as the PSO-BP rating prediction model, by combining the features of global optimization of particle swarm optimization algorithm, and make further improvements based on the traditional collaborative filtering algorithm. (shrink)

We study human performance in two classical NP‐hard optimization problems: Set Cover and Maximum Coverage. We suggest that Set Cover and Max Coverage are related to means selection problems that arise in human problem‐solving and in pursuing multiple goals: The relationship between goals and means is expressed as a bipartite graph where edges between means and goals indicate which means can be used to achieve which goals. While these problems are believed to be computationally intractable in general, they become (...) more tractable when the structure of the network resembles a tree. Thus, our main prediction is that people should perform better with goal systems that are more tree‐like. We report three behavioral experiments which confirm this prediction. Our results suggest that combinatorial parameters that are instrumental to algorithm design can also be useful for understanding when and why people struggle to choose between multiple means to achieve multiple goals. (shrink)

It has recently become popular to suggest that cognition can be explained as a process of Bayesian prediction error minimization. Some advocates of this view propose that attention should be understood as the optimization of expected precisions in the prediction-error signal (Clark, 2013, 2016; Feldman & Friston, 2010; Hohwy, 2012, 2013). This proposal successfully accounts for several attention-related phenomena. We claim that it cannot account for all of them, since there are certain forms of voluntary attention that it cannot (...) accommodate. We therefore suggest that, although the theory of Bayesian prediction error minimization introduces some powerful tools for the explanation of mental phenomena, its advocates have been wrong to claim that Bayesian prediction error minimization is ‘all the brain ever does’. (shrink)

The complex characteristics of the gas turbine in a combined cycle unit have brought great difficulties in its control process. Meanwhile, the increasing emphasis on the efficiency, safety, and cleanliness of the power generation process also makes it significantly important to put forward advanced control strategies to satisfy the desired control demands of the gas turbine system. Therefore, aiming at higher control performance of the gas turbine in the gas-steam combined cycle process, a novel fuzzy model predictive control strategy based (...) on the fuzzy selection mechanism and simultaneous heat transfer search algorithm is presented in this paper. The objective function of rolling optimization in this novel FMPC consists of two parts which represent the state optimization and output optimization. In the weight coefficient selection of those two parts, the fuzzy selection mechanism is introduced to overcome the uncertainties existing in the system. Furthermore, on account of the rapidity of the control process, the SHTS algorithm is used to solve the optimization problem rather than the traditional quadratic programming method. The validity of the proposed method is confirmed through simulation experiments of the gas turbine in a combined power plant. The simulation results demonstrate the remarkable superiorities of the adopted algorithm with higher control precision and stronger disturbance rejection ability as well as less optimization time. (shrink)

It is a popular view thatpractical deliberation excludes foreknowledge of one's choice. Wolfgang Spohn and Isaac Levi have argued that not even a purely probabilistic self-predictionis available to thedeliberator, if one takes subjective probabilities to be conceptually linked to betting rates. It makes no sense to have a betting rate for an option, for one's willingness to bet on the option depends on the net gain from the bet, in combination with the option's antecedent utility, rather than on the offered (...) odds. And even apart from this consideration, assigning probabilities to the options among which one is choosing is futile since such probabilities could be of no possible use in choice. The paper subjects these arguments to critical examination and suggests that, appearances notwithstanding, practical deliberation need not crowd outself-prediction. (shrink)

In order to build high-quality concrete, it is imperative to know the raw materials in advance. It is possible to accurately predict the quality of concrete and the amount of raw materials used using machine learning-enhanced methods. An automated process based on machine learning strategies is proposed in this paper for predicting the compressive strength of concrete. Fusion-learning-based optimization is used in the proposed approach to generate a strong learner by pooling support vector regression models. The SVR technique proposes (...) an optimization method for finding the kernel radial basis function parameters based on improving the innovative gunner algorithm. As a result of AIG's diverse solutions, local optima are effectively avoided. Therefore, the novelty of our research is that, in solving the uncertainty of predicted outputs based on integrated models, we use fusion-learning-based optimization to improve regression discrimination. We also collected a standard dataset to analyze the proposed algorithm, and subsequently, the dataset was designed from concrete laboratory tests on 244 samples, seven features, and three outputs. Different regression intensities are determined by correlation analysis of responses. Regression fusion is sufficiently accurate to estimate the number of desired outcomes examined based on the appropriate input data sample. The best quality concrete can be achieved with an error rate of less than 5%. (shrink)

In this paper we argue that predictive processing (PP) theory cannot account for the phenomenon of affect-biased attention prioritized attention to stimuli that are affectively salient because of their associations with reward or punishment. Specifically, the PP hypothesis that selective attention can be analyzed in terms of the optimization of precision expectations cannot accommodate affect-biased attention; affectively salient stimuli can capture our attention even when precision expectations are low. We review the prospects of three recent attempts to accommodate affect (...) with tools internal to PP theory: Miller and Clark’s (2018) embodied inference; Seth’s (2013) interoceptive inference; and Joffily and Coricelli’s (2013) rate of change of free energy. In each case we argue that the account does not resolve the challenge from affect-biased attention. For this reason, we conclude that prediction error minimization is not sufficient to explain all mental phenomena, contrary to the claim that the PP framework provides a unified theory of all mental phenomena or the brain ‘s cognitive functioning. Nevertheless, we suggest that empirical investigation of the interaction between affective salience and precision expectations should prove helpful in understanding the limits of PP theory, and may provide new directions for the application of a Bayesian perspective to perception. (shrink)

This paper addresses a variant of the job shop scheduling problem with total tardiness minimization where task durations and due dates are uncertain. This uncertainty is modelled with intervals. Different ranking methods for intervals are considered and embedded into a genetic algorithm. A new robustness measure is proposed to compare the different ranking methods and assess their capacity to predict ‘expected delays’ of jobs. Experimental results show that dealing with uncertainty during the optimization process yields more robust solutions. A (...) sensitivity analysis also shows that the robustness of the solutions given by the solving method increases when the uncertainty grows. (shrink)

Gross domestic product can well reflect the development of the economy, and predicting GDP can help better grasp the future economic trends. In this article, three different neural network models, the genetic algorithm – back-propagation neural network model, the particle swarm optimization – Elman neural network model, and the bat algorithm – long short-term memory model, were analyzed based on neural networks. The GDP data of Sichuan province from 1992 to 2020 were collected to compare the performance of the (...) three models in predicting GDP. It was found that the mean absolute percentage error values of the three models were 0.0578, 0.0236, and 0.0654, respectively; the root-mean-square error values were 0.0287, 0.0166, and 0.0465, respectively; and the PSO-Elman NN model had the best performance in GDP prediction. The experimental results demonstrate that neural networks were reliable in predicting GDP and can be used for further applications in practice. (shrink)

Model predictive control technology can effectively reduce the bad effect caused by inaccurate data prediction in microgrid energy management problem. However, the use of MPC technology needs to dynamically select an optimal solution from the Pareto solution set to implement, which needs the participant of the decision-makers frequently. In order to reduce the burden on decision-makers, we designed a knee point-based evolutionary multiobjective optimization algorithm, termed KBEMO. Knee point is the solution on Pareto front with the maximum marginal utility, (...) which is considered as the preferred solution if there is no other preference. This algorithm focuses on obtaining the knee region and automatically outputs knee points after the optimization. By combining this algorithm with MPC technology, it can effectively reduce the amount of computational consumption and obtain better convergence. Experimental results show that this method is more competitive than the traditional single-objective MPC method. (shrink)

Cognitive niche construction is the process whereby organisms create and maintain cause–effect models of their niche as guides for fitness influencing behavior. Extended mind theory claims that cognitive processes extend beyond the brain to include predictable states of the world. Active inference and predictive processing in cognitive science assume that organisms embody predictive (i.e., generative) models of the world optimized by standard cognitive functions (e.g., perception, action, learning). This paper presents an active inference formulation that views cognitive niche construction as (...) a cognitive function aimed at optimizing organisms' generative models. We call that process of optimization extended active inference. (shrink)

The coaxiality and unbalance are the two important indexes to evaluate the assembly quality of an aeroengine. It often needs to be tested and disassembled repeatedly to meet the double-objective requirements at the same time. Therefore, an intelligent assembly method is urgently needed to directly predict the optimal assembly orientations of the rotors at each stage to meet the double-objective requirements simultaneously. In this study, an assembly optimization method for the multistage rotor of an aeroengine is proposed based on (...) the genetic algorithm. Firstly, a spatial location propagation model is developed to accurately predict the spatial position of each rotor after assembly. The alignment process of the assembly screw holes of the adjacent rotors is considered for the first time. Secondly, a new assembly optimization strategy is proposed to select different assembly data for the specific values of the coaxiality and unbalance, respectively. Finally, a double-objective fitness function is constructed based on the coaxiality and unbalance. The simulation and experimental results show that the assembly optimization method proposed in this study can be utilized to achieve synchronous optimization of the coaxiality and unbalance of an aeroengine during preassembly. (shrink)

In this paper, an active frequency control strategy of wind turbines based on model predictive control is proposed by using the power margin of wind turbines operating in load shedding mode. The frequency response model of the microgrid system with the load shedding of the wind turbines is used to predict the output power and system frequency deviation of the wind turbine. According to the prediction information, the output power control signal of the model predictive controller in the wind turbine (...) can be optimized. On this basis, a wind turbine active participation frequency control strategy based on model predictive control is designed by rolling prediction and optimization. The wind turbine power control signal after the strategy is used to adjust the output power of the wind turbine and balance the change of the active power of the system to reduce the frequency deviation. (shrink)

Deformation of ground during tunnelling projects is one of the complex issues that is required to be monitored carefully to avoid the unexpected damages and human losses. Accurate prediction of ground settlement is a crucial concern for tunnelling problems, and the adequate predictive model can be a vital tool for tunnel designers to simulate the ground settlement accurately. This study proposes relatively new hybrid artificial intelligence models to predict the ground settlement of earth pressure balance shield tunnelling in the Bangkok (...) MRTA project. The predictive models were various nature-inspired frameworks, such as differential evolution, particle swarm optimization, genetic algorithm, and ant colony optimizer to tune the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system. To obtain the accurate and reliable results, the modeling procedure is established based on four different dataset scenarios including preprocessed and normalized, preprocessed and nonnormalized, non-preprocessed and normalized, and non-preprocessed and nonnormalized datasets. Results indicated that PPN dataset scenario significantly affected the prediction models in terms of their perdition accuracy. Among all the developed hybrid models, ANOFS-PSO model achieved the best predictability performance. In quantitative terms, PPN-ANFIS-PSO model attained the least root mean square error value of 7.98 and a correlation coefficient value of 0.83. Overall, the attained results confirmed the superiority of the explored hybrid AI models as robust predictive model for ground settlement of earth pressure balance shield tunnelling. (shrink)

This paper mainly analyzes the theories related to the financial risk of the company and combines the principles of principal component analysis, particle swarm optimization algorithm, and artificial neural network to derive the financial risk index system of the company. To improve the accuracy of financial risk prediction, principal component analysis and particle swarm algorithm are applied to optimize the BP neural network model, the input data of the prediction model is improved, and the optimal initial weights and thresholds (...) are given to the BP neural network by using particle swarm algorithm search, whereby the financial risk prediction model of particle swarm optimization BP neural network is constructed. The empirical results show that the model constructed by BP neural network not only has a high accuracy rate for static financial risk evaluation but also has a better prediction effect. After training and testing, the BP neural network-based enterprise financial risk evaluation model can accurately determine the existing financial situation of enterprise financial management and has a good prediction effect. Our research method is a fusion of the processing of the two methods, which belongs to the first integration of results. (shrink)

Dynamic multiobjective optimization problems bring more challenges for multiobjective evolutionary algorithm due to its time-varying characteristic. To handle this kind of DMOPs, this paper presents a dynamic MOEA with multiple response strategies based on linear environment detection, called DMOEA-LEM. In this approach, different types of environmental changes are estimated and then the corresponding response strategies are activated to generate an efficient initial population for the new environment. DMOEA-LEM not only detects whether the environmental changes but also estimates the types (...) of linear changes so that different prediction models can be selected to initialize the population when the environmental changes. To study the performance of DMOEA-LEM, a large number of test DMOPs are adopted and the experiments validate the advantages of our algorithm when compared to three state-of-the-art dynamic MOEAs. (shrink)

Clark acknowledges but resists the indirect mind–world relation inherent in prediction error minimization (PEM). But directness should also be resisted. This creates a puzzle, which calls for reconceptualization of the relation. We suggest that a causal conception captures both aspects. With this conception, aspects of situated cognition, social interaction and culture can be understood as emerging through precision optimization.

Accurate and reliable prediction of Perfobond Rib Shear Strength Connector is considered as a major issue in the structural engineering sector. Besides, selecting the most significant variables that have a major influence on PRSC in every important step for attaining economic and more accurate predictive models, this study investigates the capacity of deep learning neural network for shear strength prediction of PRSC. The proposed DLNN model is validated against support vector regression, artificial neural network, and M5 tree model. In the (...) second scenario, a comparable AI model hybridized with genetic algorithm as a robust bioinspired optimization approach for optimizing the related predictors for the PRSC is proposed. Hybridizing AI models with GA as a selector tool is an attempt to acquire the best accuracy of predictions with the fewest possible related parameters. In accordance with quantitative analysis, it can be observed that the GA-DLNN models required only 7 input parameters and yielded the best prediction accuracy with highest correlation coefficient and lowest value root mean square error. However, the other comparable models such as GA-M5Tree, GA-ANN, and GA-SVR required 10 input parameters to obtain a relatively acceptable level of accuracy. Employing GA as a feature parameter selection technique improves the precision of almost all hybrid models by optimally removing redundant variables which decrease the efficiency of the model. (shrink)

The “erasing race” effect is the reduction of the salience of “race” as an alliance cue when recalling coalition membership, once more accurate information about coalition structure is presented. We conducted a random-effects model meta-analysis of this effect using five United States studies (containing nine independent effect sizes). The effect was found (ρ = 0.137, K = 9, 95% CI = 0.085 to 0.188). However, no decline effect or moderation effects were found (a “decline effect” in this context would be (...) a decrease in the effect size over time). Furthermore, we found little evidence of publication bias. Synthetically correcting the effect size for bias stemming from the use of an older method for calculating error base rates reduced the magnitude of the effect, but the it remained significant. Taken together, these findings indicate that the “erasing race” effect generalizes quite well across experimental contexts and would, therefore, appear to be quite robust. We reinterpret the theoretical basis for these effects in line with Brunswikian evolutionary-developmental theory and present a series of predictions to guide future research in this area. (shrink)

The paper starts with the distinction between conjunction-of-parts accounts and disjunction-of-possibilities accounts to truthlikeness. In Sect. 3, three distinctions between kinds of truthlikeness measures are introduced: comparative versus numeric t-measures, t-measures for qualitative versus quantitative theories, and t-measures for deterministic versus probabilistic truth. These three kinds of truthlikeness are explicated and developed within a version of conjunctive part accounts based on content elements. The focus lies on measures of probabilistic truthlikeness, that are divided into t-measures for statistical probabilities and single (...) case probabilities. The logical notion of probabilistic truthlikeness can be treated as a subcase of deterministic truthlikeness for quantitative theories. In contrast, the epistemic notion of probabilistic truthlikeness creates genuinely new problems, especially for hypotheses about single case probabilities that are evaluated not by comparison to observed frequencies, but by comparison to the truth values of single event statements. By the method of meta-induction, competing theories about single case probabilities can be aggregated into a combined theory with optimal predictive success and epistemic truthlikeness. (shrink)

This paper addresses the robust output feedback model predictive control schemes for networked control systems with input quantization. The logarithmic quantizer is considered in this paper, and the sector bound approach is applied, which appropriately treats the quantization error as a sector-bounded uncertainty. The presented method involves an offline designed state observer using linear matrix inequality and online robust output feedback MPC algorithms which optimize one free control move followed by the output feedback using the estimated state. Moreover, due to (...) the uncertainty of estimation error, a technique of refreshing the bound of estimation error which involves the quantization error is provided so as to guarantee the recursive feasibility of the optimization problem. The proposed MPC schemes inherit the characteristics of the synthesis approach of MPC, guaranteeing the recursive feasibility of the optimization problem and the stability of a closed-loop system, and explicitly account for quantization error. Two simulation examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods. (shrink)

There is converging evidence that high doses of hallucinogenic drugs can produce significant alterations of self-experience, described as the dissolution of the sense of self and the loss of boundaries between self and world. This article discusses the relevance of this phenomenon, known as “drug-induced ego dissolution (DIED)”, for cognitive neuroscience, psychology and philosophy of mind. Data from self-report questionnaires suggest that three neuropharmacological classes of drugs can induce ego dissolution: classical psychedelics, dissociative anesthetics and agonists of the kappa opioid (...) receptor (KOR). While these substances act on different neurotransmitter receptors, they all produce strong subjective effects that can be compared to the symptoms of acute psychosis, including ego dissolution. It has been suggested that neuroimaging of DIED can indirectly shed light on the neural correlates of the self. While this line of inquiry is promising, its results must be interpreted with caution. First, neural correlates of ego dissolution might reveal the necessary neurophysiological conditions for the maintenance of the sense of self, but it is more doubtful that this method can reveal its minimally sufficient conditions. Second, it is necessary to define the relevant notion of self at play in the phenomenon of DIED. This article suggests that DIED consists in the disruption of subpersonal processes underlying the “minimal” or “embodied” self, i.e., the basic experience of being a self rooted in multimodal integration of self-related stimuli. This hypothesis is consistent with Bayesian models of phenomenal selfhood, according to which the subjective structure of conscious experience ultimately results from the optimization of predictions in perception and action. Finally, it is argued that DIED is also of particular interest for philosophy of mind. On the one hand, it challenges theories according to which consciousness always involves self-awareness. On the other hand, it suggests that ordinary conscious experience might involve a minimal kind of self-awareness rooted in multisensory processing, which is what appears to fade away during DIED. (shrink)

With renewable energy being increasingly connected to power grids, pumped storage plants play a very important role in restraining the fluctuation of power grids. However, conventional control strategy could not adapt well to the different control tasks. This paper proposes an intelligent nonlinear model predictive control strategy, in which hydraulic-mechanical and electrical subsystems are combined in a synchronous control framework. A newly proposed online sequential extreme learning machine algorithm with forgetting factor is introduced to learn the dynamic behaviors of the (...) coupling system. Specifically, the initial learning parameters are optimized by prior-knowledge learning and a new self-adaptive adjustment strategy is also put forward. Subsequently, the stair-like control strategy and artificial sheep algorithm are used in rolling the optimization mechanism to replace the existing complex differential geometric solutions. Comparative experiments are carried out under different working conditions based on a PSP in China. The results show that the influence from coupling factors can be considerable and the proposed MPC strategy indicates superiority in voltage and load adjustment as well as the frequency oscillation suppression. (shrink)