RESUMEN Fundamento: La asignatura Atención Integral a la Población, se imparte durante el quinto año de la carrera de Estomatología. Objetivo: Exponer los criterios de los estudiantes, egresados y profesores respecto al proceso docente educativo de la asignatura Atención Integral a la Población. Métodos: Se realizó una investigación educacional observacional-descriptiva transversal en la Facultad de Estomatología de la Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Camagüey, desarrollada desde septiembre 2015 a octubre 2017.El universo estuvo constituido por 63 estudiantes del quinto año, 90 (...) egresados del curso 2015-2016 y 14 profesores. Fueron utilizados métodos de investigación educacional cualitativos. Resultados: Los estudiantes, en la totalidad, percibieron que la asignatura influye en su formación como futuro profesional de la Estomatología, refirieron sentirse desorientados en cuestiones referidas a la distribución de contenidos, mientras que los profesores reconocieron la necesidad de determinar los temas, objetivos, sistema de conocimientos y habilidades para lograr una uniformidad en el trabajo sistemático y la evaluación frecuente en las diferentes sedes universitarias, los estudiantes carecen de una guía para realizar el estudio independiente; con vistas al examen final de la asignatura y estatal que contenga un plan de temas organizados y reúna los conocimientos esenciales a estudiar. Conclusiones: El diagnóstico develó que los estudiantes, egresados y profesores coincidieron en la necesidad de la consolidación de conocimientos, adquisición de habilidades y la interdisciplinariedad, así como la orientación del estudio independiente para el examen final de la asignatura y estatal. ABSTRACT Basis: Comprehensive assistance to the Community subject is taught in 5th -year Dentistry Career. Objective: to set out opinions of the students, graduated and professors about the teaching learning process of Comprehensive assistance to the Community subject. Methods: A transversal descriptive-observational educational research was carried out in the Dentistry faculty in the University of Medical Sciences in Camaguey, from September 2015 to October 2017. The universe was composed by 63 5th -year Dentistry students, 90 graduated of the 2015-2016 academic year and 14 professors from the teaching staff. Qualitative educational research methods were used. Results: All the students realized that the subject has an influence on the future professional training in Dentistry. They referred to be confused about the contents distribution, while the professors recognize the necessity to determine the topics, objectives, set of knowledge and skills in order to achieve uniformity in the systematic job and the common evaluation. The students do not have a guide to do their independent study taking into account the final exam. Conclusions: The diagnostic revealed that students, graduated and professors agreed in the necessity to reinforce knowledge, skills acquisition, and interdisciplinary, as well as independent study guidelines for the final exam in Dentistry. (shrink)

Para mediados de la década de 1930 las relaciones entre España y Japón habían pasado de cordiales a distantes como resultado del posicionamiento que España había adoptado en la Sociedad de Naciones con respecto a la ocupación japonesa de Manchuria. En este clima de tensiones surgirían algunos intentos de recuperar el estado de aquellas relaciones, y un buen ejemplo de esa voluntad de mejora fue la visita del Buque Escuela Juan Sebastián Elcano a Japón en enero de 1935 y el (...) tratamiento que este recibiría tanto a su llegada como durante los siete días que permaneció en aguas japonesas. (shrink)

Fundamento: La ampliación de matrícula con la diversidad de vías de ingreso ha constituido un reto en la educación médica y la evaluación de graduación implica la certificación de la competencia de los egresados, por eso se hace necesario analizar los resultados obtenidos en estas etapas. Objetivo: Comparar los resultados de los ejercicios prácticos, teóricos y notas finales obtenidas por los estudiantes presentados a Exámenes Estatales Ordinarios de los cursos del 2006 al 2012 de la Facultad de Estomatología en la (...) Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Camagüey. Métodos: Se realizó una investigación descriptiva con 410 estudiantes presentados a exámenes estatales ordinarios en el período 2006-2012. Se clasificaron los grupos con menos o más de 40 estudiantes por cursos. Se obtuvieron las calificaciones de cada ejercicio y nota final estatal por cursos. Se utilizó el método porcentual, media aritmética y mediana obtenida en cada curso. Resultados: Los cursos del 2006-2009 sumaron 99 estudiantes y en los cursos del 2009-2012 se incrementaron hasta 311 educandos. En los exámenes estatales prácticos, los grupos pequeños obtuvieron calificación media de 99,2 y una mediana de 99 y 100; en los grupos numerosos las calificaciones disminuyeron hasta llegar a una media de 93 y una mediana de 95. En los exámenes teóricos, en los tres primeros cursos la media de calificación fue 83,5 y en el grupo numeroso de 83,7. Conclusiones: En los resultados se mantiene la calidad de la base científica de la actuación en todos los cursos, pero ha disminuido la del desempeño en los cursos con incremento de estudiantes. Background: The extension of registration with the diversity of entrance ways has been a challenge in medical education. Graduation assessment involves the certification of the competence among seniors, therefore it is necessary to analyze the results obtained in these stages. Objective: To compare the results of theoretical, practical exercises and final notes obtained by the students submitted to Regular State examinations in the courses from 2006 to 2012 of the Dentistry Faculty at the Medical Sciences University of Camaguey. Methods: A descriptive research with 410 students submitted to Regular State examination was conducted in the period of 2006 to 2012. The groups were classified with less or more than 40 students per courses. The ratings of each exercise and state final note by courses were obtained. The methods used in each course were the percentage method, arithmetic mean and median obtained. Results: The courses from 2006 to 2009 totaled 99 students and in the courses from 2009 to 2012 the number of students increased up to 311. In the State practical tests small groups obtained qualification average of 99.2 and a median of 99 and 100; numerous groups' ratings fell to an average of 93 and an average of 95. In the theoretical tests, in the first three courses the average rating was 83.5 and in the large group it was 83.7. Conclusions: The results maintain the quality of the scientific basis of the performance in all courses, but the performance in courses with students increase has declined. (shrink)

El artículo trata sobre la antropología de la masculinidad y de la feminidad, a partir de la experiencia del cuerpo y de la experiencia de la soledad originaria, tal como Juan Pablo II las analizó en sus Catequesis sobre el amor humano. Así, a partir de la experiencia del propio cuerpo sexuado, podemos llegar a la comprensión de la estructura comunional de la diferencia sexual. Varón y mujer son y existen en una «comunión de personas», y constituyen la estructura central (...) que articula y sostiene el orden personal. (shrink)

La Biblia ocupa un lugar central en la historia de Israel. Este ensayo estudia la evolución de las apelaciones a la Biblia y su instrumentalización en el proceso de construcción nacional israelí, tanto en el periodo preestatal como en las primeras décadas del estado. Las tensiones teóricas y prácticas que se derivan de la utilización secular de un texto religioso trascienden el caso concreto de la Biblia e Israel y reenvían a los debates políticos y religiosos que están en el (...) origen de la construcción de los estados modernos y del concepto de soberanía nacional y democracia parlamentaria y que siguen presentes en la actualidad. (shrink)

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has influenced the approach to the health-disease system, raising the question about the principles of bioethics present in physician–patient relations. The principles while widely accepted may not be sufficient for a comprehensive ethical analysis. Therefore, the aim of this study was to explore the perception of these principles and the physician–patient relationship during a hospital stay through a qualitative approach. Method Sixteen semi-structured interviews took place to know the patients’ perception during their 2020 hospitalization for COVID-19. (...) The data was analyzed through the constant comparison method, creating categories and comparing them. In the end, seven categories were established and were grouped in three: bioethical principles (dignity, charity, vulnerability, autonomy), doctor-patient relationship (participant commitment, informed consent, health staff-patient relationship) and the experience of the disease (illness, the role of the family). Results The research found that most patients described a positive experience, with the feeling of having been well cared for with no sense of discrimination or injustice done. The majority also reported that their autonomy was respected in the treatment decisions. The evaluation of these attitudes is an area of opportunity, especially when the patients' vulnerability is at risk. Conclusions The ethics of virtue offers a better reflection of how human beings manifest themselves by emphasizing the development of virtuous character and behaviors that allow them to realize their values in life. Authorized by the Research Ethics Committee with registration: DI/18/105-B/3/308. (shrink)

Los estudios sobre el perfil de los aspirantes a la educación superior son escasos. Se compararon cuantitativamente características familiares, socioeconómicas y académicas de los aspirantes a la Licenciatura en Educación Primaria de las escuelas normales públicas de Baja California y Puebla. Perfil: mujer, soltera, 18 años, egresada de bachillerato general escolarizado. Se identificaron características más favorables en Baja California.

Cognitive symptoms after COVID-19 have been increasingly recognized several months after the acute infection and have been designated as “brain fog.” We report a patient with cognitive symptoms that started immediately after COVID-19, in which cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers were highly suggestive of Alzheimer’s disease. Our case highlights the need to examine patients with cognitive symptoms following COVID-19 comprehensively. A detailed assessment combining clinical, cognitive, and biomarker studies may help disentangle the underlying mechanisms associated with cognitive dysfunction in each case. The (...) investigation of neurodegenerative processes in an early stage, especially in older patients, is probably warranted. (shrink)

The current study has mapped the impact of changes in different climatic parameters on the productivity of major crops cultivated in India like cereal, pulses, and oilseed crops. The vulnerability of crops to different climatic conditions like exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive indicators along with its different components and agribusiness has been studied. The study uses data collected over the past six decades from 1960 to 2020. Analytical tools such as the Tobit regression model and Principal Component Analysis were used for (...) the investigation which has shown that among climatic parameters, an increase in temperature along with huge variations in rainfall and consistent increase in CO2 emissions have had a negative impact by reducing crop productivity, particularly cereals and oilseed. Among various factors, adaptive factors such as cropping intensity, agricultural machinery, and livestock density in combination with sensitivity factors such as average operational land holding size and productivity of cereals, and exposure indicators like Kharif temperature, heavy rainfall, and rate of change in maximum and minimum Rabi temperature have contributed significantly in increasing crop vulnerability. The agribusiness model needs to be more inclusive. It should pay attention to small and remote farmers, and provide them with inclusive finance that can facilitate the adoption of climate-smart financial innovations, serve the underserved segments, and help them reach the target of a sustainable and inclusive agribusiness model. Though the social, technological, and economic initiatives can enhance the adaptive capacity of farmers, political measures still have a major role to play in providing a healthy climate for agriculture in India through tailored adaptive approaches like the adoption of craft climate adaptation program, dilating the irrigation coverage and location-centric management options. Hence, multidisciplinary and holistic approaches are worth emphasizing for evaluating the future impacts of change in climate on Indian agriculture. (shrink)

En este trabajo se intentan mostrar algunas tensiones entre el discurso de la conservación, el multiculturalismo y los prejuicios racistas, tomando como punto de referencia el caso de los Montes de María en el Caribe colombiano, donde han tenido lugar proyectos de cooperación a propósito de la biodiversidad y existen iniciativas locales para su conservación. Se describen tres niveles en los que pueden encontrarse los prejuicios racistas en el discurso de la conservación, y las tensiones que los caracterizan, asociadas (...) tanto a las ideas de resistencia y de comunidad, como a la necesidad de corrección de las prácticas por parte de quienes habitan los bosques. El propósito de estas reflexiones es cuestionar el discurso de la conservación y el multiculturalismo para ampliar las perspectivas frente a las apuestas por la conservación y las luchas étnico-campesinas que se llevan a cabo en la alta montaña de los Montes de María, similares seguramente a otros casos en América Latina. (shrink)

En el siguiente estudio se evalúa un panorama con respecto al comportamiento sociológico en un preámbulo tanto antes durante y después de esta crisis social que se está viviendo debido a la pandemia de hoy en día. Por ello para sustentar dicha investigación se realizó un censo en el cuál, mediante el uso de herramientas estadísticas, se pudo realizar una comparación entre un antes y un durante de la pandemia, lo cual facilitaría intrínsicamente a la predicción de una denominada post (...) pandemia. En este texto se pretende detallar el proceso y forma de la encuesta, al igual que los resultados obtenidos de la misma. Se proveen, además, posibles explicaciones para estos resultados, guiándose por las restricciones de salud nacionales como posibles razones para el cambio de comportamiento actual. Palabras Clave: coronavirus, pandemia, frecuencia de salida. Referencias [1]P. Byass, «Eco-epidemiological assessment of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, January-February 2020,» Web Of Science, vol. 13, nº 1, 2020. [2]P. Stefanoni, «Brasil: pandemia, guerra cultural y precariedad,» Nueva Sociedad, pp. 49-59, 2020. [3]M. J. Báguena Cervellera, «La pandemia de COVID-19 a la luz de la historia de la medicina,» Investigación y Ciencia, 2020. [4]A. Levy, «La pandemia de COVID-19 podr{ia ayudar a resolver una gran incógnita climática,» Investigación y Ciencia, 2020. [5]T. Marcel Ariel, «Relaciones en tiempos de pandemia: COVID-19 y bienestar animal, ambiental y humano,» Revista Facultad Nacional De Agronomia Medellin, vol. 2, 2020. [6]F. Manrique-Abril, «Modelo SIR de la pandemia de Covid-19 en Colombia/SIR model of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia,» Revista De Salúd Publica, vol. 22, pp. 1-6, 2020. [7]D. Arango-Londoño, «Predicciones de un modelo SEIR para casos de COVID-19 en Cali, Colombia/Predictions of a SEIR model for COVID-19 cases in Cali-Colombia,» Revista De Salúd Publica, vol. 22, nº 2, pp. 1-9, 2020. [8]J. Gonzales-Castillo, «Pandemia de la COVID-19 y las Políticas de Salud Pública en el Perú: marzo-mayo 2020/COVID-19 pandemic and Public Health Policies in Peru: March-May 2020,» Revista De Salúd Publica, vol. 22, nº2, pp. 1-9, 2020. [9]A. Valenzuela-Cazés y L. Becerra-Ostos, «Práctica clínica, ámbito laboral y riesgos de la fisioterapia ante el COVID-19/Clinical practice, work and risks of physical therapy in the face of COVID-19,» Revista De Salúd Publica, vol. 22, nº 2, pp. 1-4, 2020. [10]P. Montes-Alarcón y A. Campo-Arias, «Los médicos generales y la salud mental en la pandemia por COVID-19,» Duazary, vol. 17, nº 3, pp. 4-6, 2020. (shrink)

Shared intention normally leads to joint action. It does this, it is commonly said, only because it is a characteristically stable phenomenon, a phenomenon that tends to persist from the time it is formed until the time it is fulfilled. However, the issue of what the stability of shared intention comes down to remains largely undertheorized. My aim in this paper is to remedy this shortcoming. I argue that shared intention is a source of moral and epistemic reasons, that responsiveness (...) to such reasons on the part of each individual reinforces her own relevant attitudes, and that this enhances the stability of the shared intention as a whole. We thus discover an important self-reinforcing and stability-enhancing mechanism at the heart of shared intention and action. It follows from this proposal that the psychological commitment that an individual exhibits in joint action is normally a function not only of her own participatory intention, as often maintained, but also of her endorsement of the reasons created by her group’s shared intention to so act. (shrink)

Leonidas Montes presents a new reading of Adam Smith's legacy. The classical influences, the meaning of some key concepts, and what other authors were saying at the time, are fundamental to understand what Smith really said. Starting with the famous Das Adam Smith Problem, Montes investigates the causes and the context of the Problem, and proposes the importance of the moral triad of the supposed impartial spectator, propriety and self-command for understanding Smith's broad concept of sympathy. Smith's virtues (...) are fundamental to his moral thought, and the nature of the meaning of self-command and propriety have important philosophical implications, reflecting the relevance of moral autonomy in Smith's thought. The concluding chapter gives an example of the mistake of simply looking at a problem through the eyes of today. It questions the popular version of Smith as a forerunner or founder of general economic equilibrium theory by investigating the real nature of Smith's Newtonianism. (shrink)

Faith-based organizations are a key player in major sectors of activity for maintaining the welfare state, including health, education, and social services. This paper uses a multivariate regression model in an attempt to identify the factors that affect the relationship between work engagement and flourishing. The paper also discusses the empirical research gap that has been identified in the literature about the moderated effect of human values on this relationship. This study is based on a sample of 142 nuns of (...) a congregation belonging to a religious organization with an international scope and a Catholic inspiration. The case of religious women who have chosen to live a life consistent with the charism of the congregation constitutes a paradigmatic and unique environment to investigate the potential alignment of personal values with professional activity. Two important conclusions are derived from this work. First, the more engaged nuns are in their work (social action to serve the poorest and most disadvantaged people), the more they flourish in their working environment and in their personal lives. Second, certain personal values reinforce the relationship between the professional role (work engagement) and the personal role (flourishing). (shrink)

Monte Johnson examines one of the most controversial aspects of Aristiotle's natural philosophy: his teleology. Is teleology about causation or explanation? Does it exclude or obviate mechanism, determinism, or materialism? Is it focused on the good of individual organisms, or is god or man the ultimate end of all processes and entities? Is teleology restricted to living things, or does it apply to the cosmos as a whole? Does it identify objectively existent causes in the world, or is it merely (...) a heuristic for our understanding of other causal processes? Johnson argues that Aristotle's aporetic approach drives a middle course between these traditional oppositions, and avoids the dilemma, frequently urged against teleology, between backwards causation and anthropomorphism. Although these issues have been debated with extraordinary depth by Aristotle scholars, and touched upon by many in the wider philosophical and scientific community as well, there has been no comprehensive historical treatment of the issue. Aristotle is commonly considered the inventor of teleology, although the precise term originated in the eighteenth century. But if teleology means the use of ends and goals in natural science, then Aristotle was rather a critical innovator of teleological explanation. Teleological notions were widespread among his predecessors, but Aristotle rejected their conception of extrinsic causes such as mind or god as the primary causes for natural things. Aristotle's radical alternative was to assert nature itself as an internal principle of change and an end, and his teleological explanations focus on the intrinsic ends of natural substances - those ends that benefit the natural thing itself. Aristotle's use of ends was subsequently conflated with incompatible 'teleological' notions, including proofs for the existence of a providential or designer god, vitalism and animism, opposition to mechanism and non-teleological causation, and anthropocentrism. Johnson addresses these misconceptions through an elaboration of Aristotle's methodological statements, as well as an examination of the explanations actually offered in the scientific works. Reviewed in: Notre Dame Philosophical Review 2006.06.15; Bryn Mawr Classical Review 2006.08.37; Il-Sole – 24 Ore 6 Aug. 2006; Philosophy in Review 26 (2006): 360-2; Rhizai 3 (2006): 171-8; Journal of the History of Philosophy 45 (2007): 323-4; Ancient Philosophy 27 (2007): 191-200; Phronesis 52 (2007): 248-9; Isis 98 (2007): 375; Aestimatio 4 (2007) 146-152; The British Journal for the History of Science 41 (2008): 129-130. The European Legacy 14 (2009); La Cultura 47 (2009): 174-175; Sean M. Row, Teleology in Political Contexts: an assessment of Monte Ransome Johnson’s “Aristotle on Teleology”. (A thesis presented to the faculty of the college of arts and sciences of Ohio University, 2009.). (shrink)

The perception of sensory effects generated by one’s own actions is typically attenuated compared to the same effects generated externally. However, it is unclear whether this specifically relates to self-generation. Recent studies showed that sensory attenuation mainly relies on action preparation, not actual action execution. Hence, an attenuation of sensory effects generated by another person might occur if these actions can be anticipated and thus be prepared for.Here, we compared the perceived loudness of sounds generated by one’s own actions and (...) actions of another person that either could or could not be anticipated. We found an attenuation of the perceived loudness for self- as compared to other-generated sounds. This difference was independent of whether the sound-eliciting actions of the other person could be anticipated or not. Thus, sensory attenuation seems to be specifically tied to self-generation instead of being a secondary effect of agent-independent preparation for an upcoming action. (shrink)

Drawing on the natural-resource-based view, we propose that employee stakeholder integration is linked to environmental performance through firms’ proactive environmental strategies, and that this link is contingent on shared vision. We tested our model with a cross-country and multi-industry sample. In support of our theory, results revealed that firms’ proactive environmental strategies translated employee stakeholder integration into environmental performance. This relationship was pronounced for high levels of shared vision. Our findings demonstrate that shared vision represents a key condition for advancing (...) the corporate greening agenda through proactive environmental strategies. We discuss implications for the CSR and the environmental management literatures, with a particular focus on the NRBV and stakeholder integration debates. (shrink)

In the last few decades, the study of terminology has undergone a cognitive shift that has led to the development of several approaches that study the social, linguistic, and cognitive dimension of terms, such as Communicative Theory of Terminology (CTT) and Frame-Based Terminology (FBT). CTT was developed in the early 1990s and argues that the study of terminology should be based on a communicative perspective, taking into account aspects such as the communicators and the context of communication. FBT has been (...) developed from 2007 and uses certain aspects of Frame Semantics to conceptualise specialised domains and create non-language-specific representations through the analysis of the domain event and on the study of the behaviour of the terminological units in texts. The two theories share many of the same premises and propose the representation of the concepts of a domain in an ontology. FBT also proposes a representation in frames. We explore how these two methods of domain representation can be used to represent the terminology of the domain of seafood in Germany and Spain. (shrink)

En el presente artículo se abordarán las relaciones entre Nietzsche y Platón, y Nietzsche y Darwin, a partir de las respectivas autocalificaciones nietzscheanas –a saber, su propia filosofía como ‘platonismo invertido’, y su postura ‘anti-Darwin’. A partir de esto, se buscará alcanzar tres objetivos: en primer lugar, establecer que la calificación nietzscheana de ‘Anti-Darwin’ no se sustenta ni en una oposición de tipo ontobiológico, ni en oposición a un carácter teleológico de algún tipo, sino, principalmente, en una ruptura axiológica; en (...) segundo lugar, mostrar la conexión entre la perspectiva nietzscheana y el platonismo, en divergencia con las perspectivas que, o ponen a Nietzsche en completa oposición al platonismo, o encuentran concordancia no con el platonismo, sino con Platón, o hallan plena continuidad entre uno y otro –el ‘Nietzsche metafísico’ heideggeriano. Finalmente, el tercer objetivo consistirá en mostrar que ambas autocalificaciones se hallan estructuralmente asociadas, es decir, que una no es completamente comprensible sin la otra. (shrink)

What paths are taken by post-posi tiv ist so - cial the ory?. Be yond the three ba sic types of contemporarty the o ries stud ied in this pa per, the pre sup po si tions of which com bine struc ture and agent, the study of so ci ety in which ac knowl - edge ment of the prop er ties of dis tinct..

Data are lacking with regard to participants' perspectives on return of genetic research results to relatives, including after the participant's death. This paper reports descriptive results from 3,630 survey respondents: 464 participants in a pancreatic cancer biobank, 1,439 family registry participants, and 1,727 healthy individuals. Our findings indicate that most participants would feel obligated to share their results with blood relatives while alive and would want results to be shared with relatives after their death.

This paper examines undergraduate business students' perception of corporate social responsibility in cases in which they have not attended any specific course either dealing with CSR or providing training in ethics. A survey was conducted of 535 Spanish business students as future managers. The results show that the stakeholders' perspective deserves a huge attention for those students considering what the keys of business success are. Significant differences in perception were nevertheless identified when a multifactorial analysis was undertaken. Female students are (...) more concerned about CSR issues. The maximization of value for shareholders is less valued by second- and third-year students than by first-year ones. The findings point to a number of important orientations for the future development of university curriculum. (shrink)

Título: Didáctica de las Ciencias Sociales y Competencia Digital Docente en Educación Infantil. Autor: Delfín Ortega-Sánchez Edición: Narcea Lugar de publicación: Madrid Año: 2022 Idioma: Castellano ISBN: 978-84-277-2897-4 Páginas: 93.

Indefinites impose an anti-uniqueness condition on their domain of quantification. The sentence in (1), for instance, cannot be felicitously uttered when it is taken for granted that John has only one friend (Hawkins 1978, 1991, Heim 1991).

Nowadays decision making is strongly supported by the high-confident point estimations produced by deep learning algorithms. In many activities, they are sufficient for the decision-making process. However, in some other cases, confidence intervals are required too for an appropriate decision-making process. In this work, a first attempt to generate point estimations with confidence intervals for the $^{222}$Rn radiation level time series at Canfranc Underground Laboratory is presented. To predict the low-radiation periods allows correctly scheduling the unshielded periods for maintenance operations (...) in the experiments hosted in this facility. This should minimize the deposition of radioactive dust on the exposed surfaces during these unshielded periods. An approach based on deep learning with stochastic regulation is evaluated in the forecasting of point estimations and confidence intervals of the $^{222}$Rn time series and compared with a second approach based on Gaussian processes. As a consequence of this work, an evaluation of the capacity of Gaussian process and deep learning with stochastic regularization for generating point estimations and their confidence intervals for this time series is stated. (shrink)