Understanding the regional food security situation is of great importance to maintaining China’s food security. To provide targeted information to help regional policymakers monitor food security status, based on the differentiated foci during the phased development of food security, this paper was conceived from the perspective of the need for early warnings and proposes a framework for regional integrated food security that incorporates food quantity security, food quality security, and sustainable food security. In this framework, an indicator system (...) is proposed, and the calculation of these indicators, as well as their warning thresholds and warning ranges, is discussed. To test this approach, a case study was conducted in one of China’s major grain-producing areas, the Dongting Lake area. The results showed that the overall integrated food security situation in this area was generally in the low-alarm range between 1986 and 2011; the primary causes of this status were food quality security, generally in the low- or medium-alarm range, and sustainable food security, which in 14 of the 26 years was in the low-alarm range. The government should establish a more robust system for monitoring the quality of agricultural products, controlling waste discharge, and guaranteeing poor individuals access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs. Policies on pesticide and fertilizer application should shift from actively encouraging more use to controlling excess application. (shrink)

The early warning of financial risk is to identify and analyze existing financial risk factors, determine the possibility and severity of occurring risks, and provide scientific basis for risk prevention and management. The fragility of financial system and the destructiveness of financial crisis make it extremely important to build a good financial risk early-warning mechanism. The main idea of the K-means clustering algorithm is to gradually optimize clustering results and constantly redistribute target dataset to each (...) clustering center to obtain optimal solution; its biggest advantage lies in its simplicity, speed, and objectivity, being widely used in many research fields such as data processing, image recognition, market analysis, and risk evaluation. On the basis of summarizing and analyzing previous research works, this paper expounded the current research status and significance of financial risk early-warning, elaborated the development background, current status and future challenges of the K-means clustering algorithm, introduced the related works of similarity measure and item clustering, proposed a financial risk indicator system based on the K-means clustering algorithm, performed indicator selection and data processing, constructed a financial risk early-warning model based on the K-means clustering algorithm, conducted the classification of financial risk types and optimization of financial risk control, and finally carried out an empirical experiments and its result analysis. The study results show that the K-means clustering method can effectively avoid the subjective negative impact caused by artificial division thresholds, continuously optimize the prediction process of financial risk and redistribute target dataset to each cluster center for obtaining optimized solution, so the algorithm can more accurately and objectively distinguish the state interval of different financial risks, determine risk occurrence possibility and its severity, and provide a scientific basis for risk prevention and management. The study results of this paper provide a reference for further researches on financial risk early-warning based on K-means clustering algorithm. (shrink)

Aiming at the problem of insufficient health monitoring of the elderly in the existing home care system, this paper designs a health information analysis and early warning system based on the Internet of Things technology, which can monitor the physiological data of the elderly in real time. It also can be based on the elderly real-time monitoring data, physical examination data, and other types of health data, which can be used to predict diseases, so as to (...) achieve “early detection and early treatment” of diseases. First, analyse and design the architecture and content of the home care monitoring system based on the Internet of Things. Secondly, based on the collected heart rate, blood pressure, and three-axis acceleration information of the elderly, it is analysed to determine whether the elderly are in danger of falling, and the designed system is used for early warning. Finally, this paper analyses the prediction algorithm theory of the disease prediction module in the health monitoring software of the home care system. In order to improve the accuracy of prediction, the DS evidence theory is used to optimize the traditional BP neural network algorithm and conduct experimental tests. The test results show that the health information analysis and early warning software of the home care system meet actual needs and achieve the expected goals. (shrink)

Due to the large-scale mining of mineral resources, the surface strata in many areas have collapsed and even developed into deformation and subsidence. Based on the conventional geotechnical deformation monitoring technology, the surface deformation prediction and disaster caused by the conventional geotechnical deformation monitoring technology can be avoided. In this paper, based on GIS, combined with the analysis of surface settlement, the surface settlement, slope value, curvature deformation value, horizontal displacement, and corresponding horizontal deformation formula are comprehensively analyzed and studied. (...) In order to make the surface deformation visualization and realize the high approximation processing with the subsidence area, this paper innovatively introduces the 3D visualization settlement data analysis and realizes the calculation result analysis and corresponding retrieval multiple visualization in the subsidence area depth prediction process. On this basis, the prediction data of subsidence area can be optimized and analyzed so as to master the efficient and accurate law of surface deformation. In the experimental part, a mine is taken as the experimental object, and the 3D visual monitoring processing is carried out. In this paper, the main method to prevent electromagnetic leakage of the computer system is the source suppression method. The source suppression method solves the problem fundamentally by reducing or eliminating the emission of computer electromagnetic leakage source. In the actual experiment, the effect of this method is very effective. The experimental results show that the prediction results and corresponding early warning accuracy of the system are significantly improved compared with the traditional scheme, which provides practical significance for disaster prevention and corresponding environmental impact assessment. (shrink)

Based on the research of currency crisis pressure index, bank crisis pressure index, and asset bubble crisis pressure index, this paper introduces an external shock pressure index reflecting the impact of global economic changes on economy and synthesizes systemic financial crisis pressure based on the above four pressure indexes; then, all the alternative early warning indicators and the systemic risk pressure index constructed in this paper were tested for Granger causality. We build financial systemic risk pressure indexes, including (...) currency crisis pressure banking crisis pressure index, bubble crisis pressure index, and external shock pressure index to predict financial crises. Finally, four indicators that have a significant impact on the systemic financial crisis pressure index were selected, namely, the stock price index change rate, industrial added value growth rate, domestic and foreign real deposit interest rate differential, and foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP. A dynamic Logit model with lagging binary variables is constructed, and compared with the traditional static Logit line, the actual dynamic fitting effect is better than the static Logit model. The dynamic Logit model is used to predict the early warning status of systemic financial crisis in 2020, and the forecast of various early warning indicators is realized by the ARIMA model. The final prediction results show that the probability of a systemic financial crisis in China in 2020 is extremely low, almost zero. This is in line with the overall improvement in the international economic situation in 2020 and the steady growth of the domestic economy. (shrink)

Human resource management risks are due to the failure of employer organization to use relevant human resources reasonably and can result in tangible or intangible waste of human resources and even risks; therefore, constructing a practical early warning model of human resource management risk is extremely important for early risk prediction. The back propagation neural network is an information analysis and processing system formed by using the error back propagation algorithm to simulate the neural function and (...) structure of the human brain, which can handle complex and changeable things that do not have an obvious linear relationship between output results and input factors, so as to find the objective connection between the two. Based on the summary and analysis of previous research works, this article expounded the research status and significance of early warning for human resource management risks, elaborated the development background, current status, and future challenges of the BP neural network, introduced the method and principle of the BP neural network’s connection weight calculation and learning training, performed the risk inducement analysis, index system establishment, and network node selection of human resource management, constructed an early warning model of human resource management risk based on the BP neural network, conducted the risk warning model training and detection based on the BP neural network, and finally carried out a simulation and its result analysis. The study results show that the early warning model of human resource management risk based on the BP network is effective, and this trained and tested BP network risk warning model can be used to conduct early warning empirical research on human resource risks to prevent human resource risks, ensure enterprise’s benign operation, and at the same time play a role in supervision and promotion of market order rectification. (shrink)

After coming into force of the Treaty of Lisbon it is acknowledged that better control and respect of the principle of subsidiarity is one of the most important and innovative goals of the Treaty. To achieve this goal, the Treaty introduces a mechanism which, apart from checking compliance of draft legislative acts with that principle, may eventually lead to a draft act to be deleted from the legislative agenda of the European Union on grounds of violation of subsidiarity. Within this (...) mechanism, crucial role is attributed to the national parliaments of the Member States. In this article, the reasons for overall inclusion of national parliaments in the European Union (hereinafter EU, the Union) activities are analysed. The role of national parliaments in the EU according to the specific provisions of the EU treaties is also discussed and the largest part of the work is devoted to the ex ante subsidiarity principle control mechanism (the Early Warning System), which gives the right for the national parliaments to influence the EU legislative process. (shrink)

As noted in Part 1 of this two-part review, school attendance is an important foundational competency for children and adolescents, and school absenteeism has been linked to myriad short- and long-term negative consequences, even into adulthood. Categorical and dimensional approaches for this population have been developed. This article (Part 2 of a two-part review) discusses compatibilities of categorical and dimensional approaches for school attendance and school absenteeism and how these approaches can inform one another. The article also poses a multidimensional (...) multi-tiered system of supports pyramid model as a mechanism for reconciling these approaches, promoting school attendance (and/or prevention of school absenteeism), establishing early warning systems for nimble response to school attendance problems, assisting with global policy review and dissemination and implementation, and adapting to future changes in education and technology. (shrink)

This study explores the education governance system to deal with major public crisis in China. Specifically, the literature review on the emergency system of national education, the school’s response to public crisis and public crisis education have been examined to analyze the comprehensive development of China’s education governance system historically. The macro background and situation analysis of the education system’s response to the major public crisis includes the analysis of organizational system, institutional system, operation (...) system, evaluation system, and guarantee system. In addition, this study also examines the major challenges and key issues for the education system to respond to major public crises. In the last, the pathways of the education system to deal with the major public crisis concentrate on establishing a multi-department coordination system for educational emergency response; establishing a permanent institution for educational emergency management; strengthening institutional building and formulate rules for crisis response; establishing a unified and flexible central and local coordinated response system; optimizing the construction of the operation system and improve the mechanism for crisis response; establishing a hierarchical response mechanism for education to respond to public crises, improving the security system and enhance the capability of comprehensive response, and establishing an early warning mechanism for education in response to public crises. (shrink)

To tackle zoonotic disease threats, a One Health approach is currently commonplace and generally understood as an integrated effort of multiple disciplines to promote the health of humans, animals and the environment. To implement One Health strategies in zoonotic disease control, many countries set up early warning systems, in which human and veterinary health professionals cooperate. These systems, like the Dutch Zoonoses Structure, can be successful to detect emerging disease threats. However, these systems are not well equipped to (...) handle moral dilemmas that can arise in zoonotic disease control, like the culling of healthy animals. This research studies the role of normative presuppositions of professionals involved in zoonotic disease control policies in the Netherlands. We found that these professionals in general adhered to a holistic view of the One Health concept, however, in practice an anthropocentric approach was dominant. Public health was identified as the trumping moral value, which reveals an inherent field of tension with the core of One Health thinking. The lack of ethical expertise in control systems for zoonotic diseases can lead to misconception of ethical principles, like the precautionary principle which is frequently evoked to justify disease control measures. (shrink)

This article addresses the value of information that affects the ambiguity faced by a decision maker. Our analysis is applied to the case of a farmer whose production can be damaged by a pest attack with unknown probability, this damage being reduced if the farmer decides to use a pesticide. Early warning systems have precisely been implemented in many countries to help farmers avoid inappropriate decisions in terms of pesticide use. We investigate, both theoretically and experimentally, how farmers (...) value these systems. We propose a two-state self-insurance model in which an α\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\alpha$$\end{document}-MaxMin Expected Utility farmer may use pesticides that reduce the loss in the accident state while incurring a cost in both states. Her decision to self-insure or not depends on risk and ambiguity attitudes. We compile and compare the value of two types of information leading to a reduction of ambiguity and analyze their properties with respect to ambiguity attitude. Both types of information are valued positively if the farmer is ambiguity averse. We conduct a framed field experiment in which farmers and agricultural students have to decide whether or not to apply pesticides depending on risk, ambiguity and the associated monetary gains resulting from pesticide cost. The experimental findings support the theory. The average value of information among all participants is between €0.9/ha and €3.3/ha depending on the information gain. (shrink)

Global health conditions are marked by inequities due mostly to poverty and lack of access to healthcare services. In a Pandemic setting, Mayan Communities in the Quintana Roo State in Mexico are a good example of how these disparities are exacerbated. First, they may have difficulty in adhering to directives to stay home from work because of the nature of their job, and the necessity to work, their living conditions are marked by crowding and sometimes lack of basic sanitation. Other (...) susceptibilities generally considered are the underlying host factors and medical conditions that may increase the risk of disease or of complications of disease. In general, our native communities experience a high degree of socio-economic marginalization and are at disproportionate risk in public health emergencies, becoming even more vulnerable during this global pandemic, owing to factors such as their lack of access to effective monitoring and early-warning systems, and adequate health and social services. (shrink)

This article analyzes experience of Ukraine-EU cooperation in crisis management and disaster risk reduction, in particular, experience of implementation of the early-warning and conflict prevention systems. Basing on above developments, the article discusses the necessity to implement a complex early warning and conflict prevention system with usage of modern Internet-based technologies of data collection.

This paper proposes that an important method for understanding the ethics of Japanese management is the systematic study of its Confucian traditions and the writings of Confucius. Inconsistencies and dysfunction in Japanese ethical and managerial behavior can be attributed to contradictions in Confucius' writings and inconsistencies between the Confucian code and modern realities. Attention needs to be directed to modern Confucian philosophy since, historically Confucian thought has been an early warning system for impending change.

Public policy and public opinion directly affect the image of the government, but due to the lack of appropriate monitoring and early warning tools, the government’s handling of credit changes is seriously lagging behind. In response to this problem, this paper integrates the internet, public information, market credit information, and other data, uses hidden Markov models and natural language processing technology, and establishes a modern government public policy and public opinion monitoring and early warning model to (...) evaluate government credit in real time; the government can formulate relevant policies based on the evaluation results to improve the government’s governance capabilities. Empirical analysis shows that, based on the dynamic scoring framework and Markov model, the government credit monitoring and early warning models established, respectively, have 90% of the reference value, and the analysis results have the same reference. This method can effectively predict the trend of hot online public opinion. The subsequent establishment of an online public opinion early warning system and an online public opinion guidance mechanism provided theoretical support. (shrink)

We present an algorithm that can anticipate tax evasion by modeling the co-evolution of tax schemes with auditing policies. Malicious tax non-compliance, or evasion, accounts for billions of lost revenue each year. Unfortunately when tax administrators change the tax laws or auditing procedures to eliminate known fraudulent schemes another potentially more profitable scheme takes it place. Modeling both the tax schemes and auditing policies within a single framework can therefore provide major advantages. In particular we can explore the likely forms (...) of tax schemes in response to changes in audit policies. This can serve as an early warning system to help focus enforcement efforts. In addition, the audit policies can be fine tuned to help improve tax scheme detection. We demonstrate our approach using the iBOB tax scheme and show it can capture the co-evolution between tax evasion and audit policy. Our experiments shows the expected oscillatory behavior of a biological co-evolving system. (shrink)

Plants have evolved systems analogous to animal innate immunity that recognise pathogen‐associated molecular patterns (PAMPs). PAMP detection is an important component of non‐host resistance in plants and serves as an early warning system for the presence of potential pathogens. Binding of a PAMP to the appropriate pattern recognition receptor leads to downstream signalling events and, ultimately, to the induction of basal defence systems. To overcome non‐host resistance, pathogens have evolved effectors that target specific regulatory components of the (...) basal defence system. In turn, this has led to the evolution in plants of cultivar‐specific resistance mediated by R proteins, which guard the targets of effectors against pathogen manipulation; the arms race continues. BioEssays 28: 880–889, 2006. © 2006 Wiley periodicals, Inc. (shrink)

This study aims to examine the main determinants of efficiency of both conventional and Islamic Saudi banks and then choose the best fit model among machine learning prediction models, Chi-squared automatic interaction detector, linear regression, and neural network ). The data were collected from the annual financial reports of Saudi banks from 2014 to 2018. The Saudi banking sector consists of 11 banks, 4 of which are Islamic. In this study, the major financial ratios are subgrouped into the profitability ratios, (...) managerial practices, asset and loans, capital adequacy ratios, and liquidity. First, regression analysis is implemented with efficiency ratio as a dependent variable and the proxies of banks’ profitability, liquidity, asset quality, management ratios, and capital adequacy ratios as independent variables. Next, the feature selection is applied for different prediction models. Subsequently, 4 prediction models were developed to choose the best fit. The performance metrics have also been evaluated. Regression results exhibit that the efficiency of both conventional and Islamic banks is highly affected by profitability, liquidity, and managerial practices. Finally, we choose the best prediction model with the highest R2 in the training and the testing phases with/out feature selection that is the CHAID model. The best predictors of cost efficiency for Saudi banks are the capital ratios, namely, CAR total and CAR tier 1. Findings are theoretically and practically important to academics, investors, and policymakers. Policymakers can benefit from the novelty of this study in building an early warning system using the CHAID model to predict different financial distress scenarios. (shrink)

With the rapid development of China's economy in recent decades, and the decentralization of the country's economic regulation and legal support, private financing has developed rapidly due to its simple, flexible and unique advantages. Some SMEs can solve it to some extent through private financing. The company's own financing issues have also helped the local financial market's effectiveness. Based on the “Yantai Private Financing Interest Rate Index,” this paper constructs a private financial risk index model from three perspectives of interest (...) rate risk, scale risk and credit risk, and conducts a case simulation analysis of the private financing risk index. The characteristic indicators of the early warning system are screened from the macro, micro and stability dimensions, and subjective and objective adjustment coefficients are set for each indicator from both subjective and objective perspectives. This article takes the Yantai Index as the representative of China's private financing interest rate index. Based on the term structure of Yantai's private lending rate, this paper studies its response to macroeconomic shocks and analyzes the information value it contains. And use the private financing interest rate index to build a financial risk monitoring model. Through the system transformation model, the article finds that there is a significant asymmetry in the response of private lending to macroeconomic shocks. When private lending rates are higher, inflation has a greater effect on interest rates; when private lending rates are lower, monetary policy has a stronger regulatory effect on private lending rates. In the data processing, the principal component analysis method and the Bayesian vector autoregressive model were established. Through the study of this article, it is concluded that the interest rate decreases with the increase of the term, and the risk comparison is performed for the 1-month period, 3-month period, June period, 1-year period, and more than 1-year. The risks in the previous period are greater, and the risks in the March and June periods are relatively small. This model can be used to calculate the comprehensive evaluation value and its fluctuation in the historical risk market and historical equilibrium market, so as to determine the risk range of the comprehensive evaluation value. Thus, the early warning system is verified to be feasible. (shrink)

In his renowned collection Philosophy as a Way of Life, Pierre Hadot suggests that the original trait of philosophy as a method by which one exercises themselves to achieve a new way of living and seeing the world fails with the rise of modernity. In that time, philosophy increasingly takes on a merely theoretical aspect, tending toward a system. However, Hadot himself glimpses at the dawn of modernity some instances of the original trait of philosophy still very much present, (...) and in his wake, Michel Foucault warns that between the late 16th and early 17th centuries the philosophical question of the reform of the mind attests to a still very close link between asceticism and truth. This book aims to develop just such an idea by thoroughly analyzing the most representative works of the reform of the mind in the early modern period: Francis Bacon's New Organon (1620), René Descartes' Discourse on the Method (1637), and Baruch Spinoza's Treatise on the Emendation of the Intellect (1677). From this analysis it will emerge that these modern works fully deserve to be counted among the tradition of philosophy as way of life. On closer inspection, the inquiries about method elaborated in these works are fully understandable only when read in the light of a broader and more complex philosophical need: to establish the spiritual conditions for accessing truth and aspiring to full self-realization. (shrink)

Drought is a creeping phenomenon that slowly holds an area over time and can be continued for many years. The impacts of drought occurrences can affect communities and environments worldwide in several ways. Thus, assessment and monitoring of drought occurrences in a region are crucial for reducing its vulnerability to the negative impacts of drought. Therefore, comprehensive drought assessment techniques and methods are required to develop adaptive strategies that a region can undertake to reduce its vulnerability to drought substantially. For (...) this purpose, this study proposes a new method known as a regional comprehensive assessment of meteorological drought. The Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and Standardized Precipitation and Temperature Index are jointly used for the development of the RCAMD. Further, the RCAMD employs Monte Carlo feature selection and steady-state probabilities to comprehensively collect information from various stations and drought indices. Moreover, the RCAMD is validated on the six selected stations in the northern areas of Pakistan. The outcomes associated with the RCAMD provide a comprehensive regional assessment of meteorological drought and become the initial source for bringing more considerations to drought monitoring and early warning systems. (shrink)

Why flawed logic puts us all at risk, and how critical thinking can save the world. It may seem a big claim, but knowing how to think clearly and critically has literally helped save the world. In September 1983, at the height of the Cold War, the Soviet Union's early warning system showed five US missiles heading towards the country. Stanislaw Petrov knew his duty: he was to inform Moscow that nuclear war had begun, so that they (...) could launch an immediate and devastating response. Instead, he made a call to say the system was faulty. He'd assessed the situation and reasoned that an error was more likely than such a limited attack. We may not have to save the planet from nuclear annihilation, of course, but our ability to think critically has never been more important. In a world where fake news, mistrust of experts, prejudice and ignorance all too often hold sway, we can all too easily be misled. We live in an era where access to all the knowledge in the world is at our fingertips, yet that also means misinformation and falsehoods can spread further and faster than ever before. In The Irrational Ape, David Robert Grimes shows how we can be lured into making critical mistakes or drawing false conclusions, and how to avoid such errors. Given the power of modern science and the way that movements can unite to protest a cause via social media, we are in dangerous times. But fortunately, we can learn from our mistakes, and by critical thinking and scientific method we can discover how to apply these techniques to everything from deciding what insurance to buy to averting global disaster. This book, packed with fascinating case studies and examples, helps ensure we are ready for the modern world. (shrink)

The legal risks associated with health research involving human subjects have been highlighted recently by a number of lawsuits launched against those involved in conducting and evaluating the research. Some of these cases have been fully addressed by the legal system, resulting in judgments that provide some guidance. The vast majority of cases have either settled before going to trial, or have not yet been addressed by the courts, leaving us to wonder what might have been and what guidance (...) future cases may bring. What is striking about the lawsuits that have been commenced is the broad range of individuals/institutions that are named as defendants and the broad range of allegations that are made. The research community should take this early experience as a warning and should reflect carefully on practices where research involving human subjects is concerned. (shrink)

In the late 1950s and early 1960s, emerging advances in the biomedical sciences raised insufficiently noticed ethical issues, prompting science reporters to serve as a sort of Early Warning System. As awareness of bioethical issues increased rapidly everywhere, and bioethics itself arrived as a recognized discipline, the need for this early-warning press role has clearly diminished. A secondary but important role for the science journalist is that of investigative reporter/whistleblower, as in the Tuskegee syphilis (...) trials and the government's secret plutonium experiments. Because the general public gets most of its information from the popular media, ways are suggested for journalists and bioethicists to work together. (shrink)

Mass-marketing frauds are on the increase. Given the amount of monies lost and the psychological impact of MMFs there is an urgent need to develop new and effective methods to prevent more of these crimes. This paper reports the early planning of automated methods our interdisciplinary team are developing to prevent and detect MMF. Importantly, the paper presents the ethical and social constraints involved in such a model and suggests concerns others might also consider when developing automated systems.

In this paper, the model is constructed by measuring the psychological stress condition of employees; the psychological stress condition measurement model analyzes and tests the reasons for reducing human resource turnover in enterprises. In this paper, through the research related to the problem of talent loss in enterprises, we found that enterprises of other ownership often use the talent loss early warning model, to measure the possibility of talent loss in enterprises and issue an early warning, (...) which enables enterprises to solve the talent loss crisis in time and minimize the negative impact of talent loss on enterprises. In this paper, we analyze the causes of human resource attrition risk from a theoretical point of view, construct a system of human resource attrition risk indicators for enterprises, and explain the content of each technical indicator and its measurement method. The PLS structural equation of the HR attrition risk evaluation model is established based on the constructed risk index system. In addition, the analysis of the causes of human resources turnover risk in the company also proposes strategies to avoid and prevent the threat. The PLS structural equation evaluation model of HR turnover risk is applied to various situations of human resource management to analyze the case of the comprehensive evaluation of HR turnover risk to guide the practical application of the model. Therefore, the research results of this paper have significant reference value for enterprises to solve similar human resource attrition problems. At the same time, it will provide a reference for enterprises to improve their human resource diagnostic capability and promote the development of human resource management. (shrink)

High levels of police corruption have been a persistent historical tendency in police services throughout the world. While the general area of concern in this book is with police corruption and anti-corruption, the focus is on certain key philosophical and ethical issues that arise for police organisations confronting corruption. On the normative account proffered in this book the principal institutional purpose of policing is the protection of legally enshrined moral rights and the principal institutional anti-corruption arrangement is what is referred (...) to as an integrity system. The latter includes oversight bodies with investigative powers and internal affairs departments as well as specific devices such as early warning indicators, professional reporting mechanisms and integrity tests. Key concepts analysed in the book include corruption, noble cause corruption and collective moral responsibility. The key ethical issues analysed include investigative independence, professional reporting, covert operations and integrity tests. (shrink)

Critical phenomena in stock exchange are regularly occurring and difficult to predict events, often leading to disastrous consequences. The presented paper is devoted to the search and research of early warning signals of critical transitions in stock exchange based on the results of a multifractal analysis of a series of transactions in shares of public companies. We have proposed and justified the use of certain features of behavior of multifractal spectrum shape parameters such as signals. As model time (...) series, on which methods of multifractal analysis were tested, we used a series of the number of unstable sites of the sandpile automaton on the random Erdős–Rényi graph, self-organizing into critical and bistable states. It was found that the early warning signals for both cellular automata and stock exchanges are an increase in the magnitude of the maximum position, a decrease in the width, and a decrease, followed by a sharp increase, in the value of the spectrum asymmetry parameter. (shrink)

The business environment is increasingly uncertain due to the rapid development of disruptive information technologies, the changing global economy, and the COVID-19 pandemic. This brings great uncertainties to investors to predict the performance changes and risks of companies. This research proposes a sequential data-based framework that aggregates data from multiple sources including both structured and unstructured data to predict the performance changes. It leverages data generated from the early risk warning system in China stock market to measure (...) and predict organization performance changes based on the risk warning status changes of public companies. Different from the models in existing literature that focus on the prediction of risk warning of companies, our framework predicts a portfolio of organization performance changes, including business decline and recovery, thus helping investors to not only predict public company risks, but also discover investment opportunities. By incorporating sequential data, our framework achieves 92.3% macro-F1 value on real-world data from listed companies in China, outperforming other static models. (shrink)

Writing in 2007, French social philosopher André Gorz was remarkably prophetic, foretelling the international economic meltdown of 2008: “The real economy is becoming an appendage of the speculative bubbles sustained by the finance industry—until that inevitable point when the bubbles burst, leading to serial bank crashes and threatening the global system of credit with collapse and the real economy with a severe, prolonged depression.” This prescient article is collected in _Ecologica _alongside many of Gorz’s final writings and interviews, which (...) together offer practical and often path-breaking set of solutions to our current economic and political problems. In his writings Gorz condemns the speculative global economic system and anatomizes its terminal crisis. Advocating an exit from capitalism through the self-limitation of needs and the networked use of the latest technologies, he outlines a practical, democratically based solution to our current predicament. Compiled by Gorz, _Ecologica_ is intended as a final distillation of his work and thought, a guide to the survival of our planet. It is a work of _political, _rather than scientific ecology—Gorz aruges that the key to planetary survival is not a surrender to environmental experts and eco-technocrats, but a switch to non-consumerist modes of living that would amount to a type of cultural revolution. Praise for André Gorz “To my mind the greatest of modern French social thinkers.”—Herbert Gintis, author of _Schooling in Capitalist America_ “Gorz’s work was always within the Utopian tradition—a label he welcomed but which was used pejoratively by his opponents.... Many of his derided early warnings about globalization and environmental degradation have become commonplace discourses in political debates today. Ultimately, Gorz’s Utopianism was expressed in a very practical sense—we never know how far along the road we are if we have no idea of the destination.”—_Independent _ __. (shrink)

From the late 1960s to the early 1980s, a team of U.S. political scientists and computer specialists designed an automated, computerized information system that could ostensibly forecast conflict earlier and more accurately than human analysts. Named the Crisis Early Warning and Monitoring System (EWAMS), it sought to bring international relations scholarship and U.S. national security policy—traditionally qualitative and interpretive domains—under the jurisdiction of a man–machine system. Drawing together the histories of social science, computing, and (...) foreign policy, this essay argues that deep epistemic insecurities led social scientists to apply information technology to the production of policy knowledge. Computers, they hoped, could overcome the innate cognitive limitations that imperiled human decision making. By showing how social scientists’ computational zeal overshadowed their commitment to human agency, this essay also demonstrates that the history of science has an important role to play in contemporary debates about the implications of big data projects for knowledge and policy. (shrink)

With the advent of the Big Data era, information and data are growing in spurts, fueling the deep application of information technology in all levels of society. It is especially important to use data mining technology to study the industry trends behind the data and to explore the information value contained in the massive data. As teaching and learning in higher education continue to advance, student academic and administrative data are growing at a rapid pace. In this paper, we make (...) full use of student academic data and campus behavior data to analyze the data inherent patterns and correlations and use these patterns rationally to provide guidance for teaching activities and teaching management, thus further improving the quality of teaching management. The establishment of a data-mining-technology-based college repetition warning system can help student management departments to strengthen supervision, provide timely warning information for college teaching management as well as leaders and counselors’ decision-making, and thus provide early help to students with repetition warnings. In this paper, we use the global search advantage of genetic algorithm to build a GABP hybrid prediction model to solve the local minimum problem of BP neural network algorithm. The data validation results show that Recall reaches 95% and F1 result is about 86%, and the accuracy of the algorithm prediction results is improved significantly. It can provide a solid data support basis for college administrators to predict retention. Finally, the problems in the application of the retention prediction model are analyzed and corresponding suggestions are given. (shrink)

Floods are one of the most common natural disasters in the world that affect all aspects of life, including human beings, agriculture, industry, and education. Research for developing models of flood predictions has been ongoing for the past few years. These models are proposed and built-in proportion for risk reduction, policy proposition, loss of human lives, and property damages associated with floods. However, flood status prediction is a complex process and demands extensive analyses on the factors leading to the occurrence (...) of flooding. Consequently, this research proposes an Internet of Things-based flood status prediction (IoT-FSP) model that is used to facilitate the prediction of the rivers flood situation. The IoT-FSP model applies the Internet of Things architecture to facilitate the flood data acquisition process and three machine learning (ML) algorithms, which are Decision Tree (DT), Decision Jungle, and Random Forest, for the flood prediction process. The IoT-FSP model is implemented in MATLAB and Simulink as development platforms. The results show that the IoT-FSP model successfully performs the data acquisition and prediction tasks and achieves an average accuracy of 85.72% for the three-fold cross-validation results. The research finding shows that the DT scores the highest accuracy of 93.22%, precision of 92.85, and recall of 92.81 among the three ML algorithms. The ability of the ML algorithm to handle multivariate outputs of 13 different flood textual statuses provides the means of manifesting explainable artificial intelligence and enables the IoT-FSP model to act as an early warning and flood monitoring system. (shrink)

The purpose is to minimize the substantial losses caused by public health emergencies to people’s health and daily life and the national economy. The tuberculosis data from June 2017 to 2019 in a city are collected. The Structural Equation Model is constructed to determine the relationship between hidden and explicit variables by determining the relevant indicators and parameter estimation. The prediction model based on Artificial Neural Network and Convolutional Neural Network is constructed. The method’s effectiveness is verified by comparing the (...) prediction model’s loss value and accuracy in training and testing. Meanwhile, 50 pieces of actual cases are tested, and the warning level is determined according to the T-value. The results show that comparing and analyzing ANN, CNN, and the hybrid network of ANN and CNN, the hybrid network’s accuracy is higher than the other two algorithms, 89.1 and 90.1%. Also, the hybrid network has sound prediction effects and accuracy when predicting actual cases. Therefore, the early warning method based on ANN in deep learning has better performance in public health emergencies’ early warning, which is significant for improving early warning capabilities. (shrink)

The precautionary principle is a widely accepted policy norm for decision making under uncertainty in environmental management, However, some of the traditional ways of ensuring trustworthy results used in environmental science and of communicating them work contrary to the general goal of providing the political system and the public with as good an input as possible in the decision making process. For example, it is widely accepted that scientists should only communicate results fulfilling the traditional scientific standard for hypothesis (...) testing. The need for introducing complementary norms in environmental science is illustrated by a recent discussion among scientists on how the precautionary principle should be used in the context of marine biological studies. This discussion highlights the importance of the use of statistical power in communicating scientific results to decision makers and to the general public as well as to the scientific peers. We argue that it would be unethical to report only certainties—because of the need of early warnings—and it would in the same way be unethical to hide the uncertainties. Environmental science can make a better contribution to environmental decision making, if the available knowledge is communicated in a manner which allows for insight on how strong the evidence is. (shrink)

Given the abrupt global disruption caused by SARS-CoV-2, one might think that the COVID pandemic was an unpredictable event. But in the years leading up to the emergence of the COVID pandemic, several documents had already been warning of the increasing occurrences of new disease outbreaks with pandemic potential and lack of corresponding policies to promote pandemic preparedness and response. In this article, we call these documents “early warnings”. We argue that a survey of early warnings can (...) help science communicators to promote the public understanding of evidence-based pandemic preparedness and response policies at local or international level. Our proposal differs from other approaches to pandemic preparedness and response in that it highlights the relevance of documents published before the COVID outbreak. We show that the early warnings did not become outdated after the COVID outbreak, but, rather, that they are even more pressing now. (shrink)

Sports injury is a common problem in athletes’ training. The sports injury assessment model is a physical method to determine the sports injury attributes of specific parts by predicting and evaluating the risk of sports injury. In this paper, we use a neural network to realize big data analysis of sports injury data. Big data network is a method of capturing Internet information by means of cloud computing, which is usually used in the construction of Wan and LAN. This paper (...) analyzes the source of sports risk and the main injury factors, designs the sports injury estimation model based on big data analysis, establishes a new assessment model based on RBF neural network, and builds the big data network environment required for the model operation by improving the topological structure, combining big data and deep neural network. In the built environment, the risk assessment of sports injury can be completed by determining the risk source and identifying the risk factors. The realization of the model can be constrained by the uncertainty conditions so that it can achieve a good operation state. (shrink)

With the improvement of citizens’ risk perception ability and environmental protection awareness, social conflicts caused by environmental problems in large-scale construction projects are becoming more and more frequent. Traditional social risk prevention management has some defects in obtaining risk data, such as limited coverage, poor availability, and insufficient timeliness, which makes it impossible to realize effective early warning of social risks in the era of big data. This paper focuses on the three environments of diversification of stakeholders, risk (...) media, and big data era. The evolution characteristics of the social risk of environmental damage of large-scale construction projects are analyzed from the four stages of incubation, outbreak, mitigation, and regression in essence. On this basis, a social risk early warning model is constructed， and the multicenter network governance mode of social risk of environmental damage in large-scale construction projects and practical social risk prevention strategies in different stages are put forward. Experiments show that the long short-term memory neural network model is effective and feasible for predicting the social risk trend of environmental damage of large-scale construction projects. Compared with other classical models, the long short-term memory model has the advantages of strong processing capability and high early warning accuracy for time-sensitive data and will have broad application prospects in the field of risk control research. By using the network governance framework and long short-term memory model, this paper studies the environmental mass events of large-scale construction projects on the risk early warning method, providing reference for the government to effectively prevent and control social risk of environmental damage of large-scale construction project in China. (shrink)

After accounting for the festival as a philosophical theme across Heidegger’s early to later writings, this article summarizes the 1943 “Andenken” essay on Hölderlin’s “wedding festival” and 1959 “Hölderlin’s Earth and Heaven” essay on the “round dance.” It then explores how these motifs of the wedding festival and its round dance are in play in the 1936–1937 Contributions to Philosophy: Of the Event manuscript, especially in its philosophy of attunement, and notion of the “celebration of the last god.”.

It remains a standing problem how and why the first nervous systems evolved. Molecular and genomic information is now rapidly accumulating but the macroscopic organization and functioning of early nervous systems remains unclear. To explore potential evolutionary options, a coordination centered view is discussed that diverges from a standard input–output view on early nervous systems. The scenario involved, the skin brain thesis, stresses the need to coordinate muscle-based motility at a very early stage. This paper addresses how (...) this scenario with its focus on coordination also deals with sensory aspects. It will be argued that the neural structure required to coordinate extensive sheets of contractile tissue for motility provides the starting point for a new multicellular organized form of sensing. Moving a body by muscle contraction provides the basis for a multicellular organization that is sensitive to external surface structure at the scale of the animal body. Instead of thinking about early nervous systems as being connected to the environment merely through input and output, the implication developed here is that early nervous systems provide the foundation for a highly specific animal sensorimotor organization in which neural activity directly reflects bodily and environmental spatiotemporal structure. While the SBT diverges from the input–output view, it is closely linked to and supported by ongoing work on embodied approaches to intelligence to which it adds a new interpretation of animal embodiment and sensorimotor organization. (shrink)

Paulin and Cahill‐Lane explore the origins of event processing and event prediction in animal evolution. They propose that the evolutionary benefit of being able to predict and thus to quickly react to anticipated events may have triggered the evolution of the earliest nervous systems.

With age might come a decline in crucial driving skills. The effect of a collision warning system on older drivers' head movements behavior at intersections was examined.Methods: Twenty-six old-adults, between 55 and 64 years of age, and 16 Older drivers between 65 and 83 years of age, participated in the study. A CWS and a front-back in-vehicle camera were installed in each of the participants' own vehicles for 6 months. The CWS was utilized to identify unsafe events during (...) naturalistic driving situations, and the IVC was used to capture head direction at intersections. The experimental design was conducted in three phases, 2 months each. Unsafe events were recorded by the CWS during all phases of the study. In the second phase, the CWS feedback was activated to examine its effect on drivers' head movement' behavior at intersections.Results: Older drivers drove significantly more hours in total during the intervention phase than the baseline phase and the carryover phase. The study revealed no significant differences between the head movements of older and old-adult drivers at intersections. For intersection on the left direction, a significant improvement in drivers' head movements' behavior was found at T-junctions, turns and four-way intersections from phase 1 to phase 3, however, two intersection types presented a decrease along the study phases. The head movements' behavior at roundabouts and merges was better at phase 1 compared to phase 3. There was no significant reduction of the mean number of CWS unsafe events across the study phases.Conclusions: The immediate feedback provided by the CWS was effective in terms of participants' head movements at certain intersections but was harmful in others. However, older drivers drove many more hours during the active feedback phase, implying that they trusted the system. Therefore, in the light of this complex picture, using the technological feedback with older drivers should be followed with an additional mediation or follow-up to ensure safety. (shrink)

Summary The aim of this paper is to explore relations between science and the public. Specifically, Swedish meteorology around 1900 and the rôle of media relations in the construction of a storm-warning system will be discussed. It is argued that science–public interaction can be a factor in the process of establishing priorities in science.