In this paper, we propose the model averaging estimation method for multiplicative error model and construct the corresponding weight choosing criterion based on the Kullback–Leibler divergence with a hyperparameter to avoid the problem of overfitting. The resulting model average estimator is proved to be asymptotically optimal. It is shown that the Kullback–Leibler model averaging estimator asymptotically minimizes the in-sample Kullback–Leibler divergence and improves the forecast accuracy of out-of-sample even under different loss functions. In simulations, we show that the KLMA estimator (...) compares favorably with smooth-AIC estimator, smooth-BIC estimator, and Mallows model averaging estimator, especially when some nonlinear noise is added to the data generation process. The empirical applications in the daily range of S&P500 and price duration of IBM show that the out-of-sample forecasting capacity of the KLMA estimator is better than that of other methods. (shrink)

Heritability estimates obtained from genome-wide association studies are much lower than those of traditional quantitative methods. This phenomenon has been called the “missing heritability problem.” By analyzing and comparing GWAS and traditional quantitative methods, we first show that the estimates obtained from the latter involve some terms other than additive genetic variance, while the estimates from the former do not. Second, GWAS, when used to estimate heritability, do not take into account additive epigenetic factors transmitted across generations, while traditional quantitative (...) methods do. Given these two points we show that the missing heritability problem can largely be dissolved. (shrink)

Business Ethics, the Environment &Responsibility, EarlyView.

This volume explores the cross-linguistic diversity, and possibly inconsistency, of the span of linguistic means that signal reported speech and thought. The integration of broad linguistic (viewpoint in conversation and narrative) and cognitive (theory of mind and understanding the inner life and thought of others) strategies for handling mixed points of view will be considered.

This work is developed to improve the current quality of e-commerce logistics services. From the perspective of multiple consumer psychology, based on e-commerce, consumer psychology, and other related theories, vegetable e-commerce B is selected as the research object. The commodity quality, accuracy, and timeliness of commodity distribution and other factors of e-commerce B are discussed through questionnaire survey. Then, according to customers’ opinions about “e-commerce B’s distribution and professional aspects that need to be improved,” the research is conducted. Finally, the (...) direction of follow-up optimization is proposed from four different perspectives of multiple consumption psychology. The research results show that more than 89% of the surveyed customers believe that e-commerce B does a good job in terms of commodity quality, accuracy, and timeliness of commodity distribution, and has a high level of logistics service. However, 26.34% of customers hope that e-commerce B can strengthen the protection of personal privacy, 24.97% hope that the platform can add “delay insurance” for goods, and 39.54% hope that the logistics information of purchased goods can be updated in real time. Therefore, e-commerce B needs to be optimized and improved continuously in the future development. Therefore, research on the optimization of logistics service quality of e-commerce is performed under multiple consumption psychology, which provides certain help for the rapid development of subsequent e-commerce. (shrink)

This paper presents social data and knowledge collective intelligence platform for TRaining Ethical AI Models (STREAM) to address the challenge of aligning AI models with human moral values, and to provide ethics datasets and knowledge bases to help promote AI models “follow good advice as naturally as a stream follows its course”. By creating a comprehensive and representative platform that accurately mirrors the moral judgments of diverse groups including humans and AIs, we hope to effectively portray cultural and group variations, (...) and capture the dynamic evolution of moral judgments over time, which in turn will facilitate the Establishment, Evaluation, Embedding, Embodiment, Ensemble, and Evolvement (6Es) of the moral capabilities of AI models. Currently, STREAM has already furnished a comprehensive collection of ethical scenarios, and amassed substantial moral judgment data annotated by volunteers and various popular Large Language Models, collectively portraying the moral preferences and performances of both humans and AIs across a range of moral contexts. This paper will outline the current structure and construction of STREAM, explore its potential applications, and discuss its future prospects. (shrink)

This study aimed to reveal the characteristics of multi-circuit brain synergy between elite tai chi chuan athletes in resting and exercise states and to provide neuroimaging evidence of improvements in brain function by motor skill training. Functional near-infrared spectroscopy was used to compare the brain activity of professional tai chi chuan athletes and beginners in resting and exercise states, and to assess functional connectivity between the prefrontal lobe and the sensorimotor zone. In the resting state, the FC between the left (...) prefrontal lobe and the right sensorimotor area in the expert group was significantly lower than that in the novice group. In the exercise state, the patterns of FC between the left prefrontal lobe and right sensorimotor area, the right prefrontal lobe and left sensorimotor area, and the left and right sensorimotor areas in the expert group were significantly lower than that in the novice group. From the resting state to the locomotor state, the expert group experienced a greater absolute value of functional connection increment between the left prefrontal cortex and right sensorimotor area, and between the left sensorimotor area and right sensorimotor area. This was positively correlated with the self-evaluation results of motor performance behavior. Under sports conditions, professional athletes’ multi-circuit brain FC strength is significantly reduced, and their elite motor skill performance supports the neural efficiency hypothesis. This may be related to the high adaptation of the brain to specific tasks and the improvement of the integration of somatic perception processing and motor function. (shrink)

Lun Xun's collected anti-Confucianist writings.

As an important view in the epistemology of perception, dogmatism proposes that for any experience, if it has a distinctive kind of phenomenal character, then it thereby provides us with immediate justification for beliefs about the external world. This paper rejects dogmatism by looking into the epistemology of imagining. In particular, this paper first appeals to some empirical studies on perceptual experiences and imaginings to show that it is possible for imaginings to have the distinctive phenomenal character dogmatists have in (...) mind. Then this paper argues that some of these imaginings fail to provide us with immediate justification for beliefs about the external world at least partly due to their inappropriate etiology. Such imaginings constitute counterexamples to dogmatism. (shrink)

According to phenomenal conservatism or dogmatism, perceptual experiences can give us immediate justification for beliefs about the external world in virtue of having a distinctive kind of phenomenal character—namely phenomenal force. I present three cases to show that phenomenal force is neither pervasive among nor exclusive to perceptual experiences. The plausibility of such cases calls out for explanation. I argue that contrary to a long-held assumption, phenomenal force is a separate, non-perceptual state generated by some metacognitive mechanisms that monitor one’s (...) first-order mental processes and states. This new account advances our understanding of the nature of phenomenal force. (shrink)

ABSTRACT Cognitive penetrability refers to the possibility that perceptual experiences are influenced by our beliefs, expectations, emotions, or other personal-level mental states. In this paper, I focus on the epistemological implication of cognitive penetration, and examine how, exactly, aetiologies matter to the justificatory power of perceptual experiences. I examine a prominent theory, according to which some cognitively penetrated perceptual experiences are like conclusions of bad inferences. Whereas one version of this theory is psychologically implausible, the other version has sceptical consequences. (...) In the second half of the paper, I suggest an alternative theory, drawing on recent empirical research on imagining-perception interaction and the epistemology of imagining. (shrink)

Lu Jia's New Discourses: A Political Manifesto from the Early Han Dynasty is a readable yet accurate translation by Paul R. Goldin and Elisa Levi Sabattini. Celebrated as "a man-of-service with a mouth [skilled] at persuasion", Lu Jia (c. 228-140 BCE) became one of the leading figures of the early Han dynasty, serving as a statesman and diplomat from the very beginning of the Han empire. This book is a translation of Lu Jia's New Discourses, which laid out the reasons (...) for rise and fall of empires. Challenged by the new Emperor to produce a book explaining why a realm that was conquered on horseback cannot also be ruled on horseback, Lu Jia produced New Discourses, to great acclaim. (shrink)

Despite the prevalent role of guanxi in conducting business in Chinese, it is unclear whether interpersonal guanxi fosters interfirm trust. Taking a contingency approach, this study examines how institutional (government–market relationship and Buddhism influence) and individual (relative role performance and the span of partner control) factors moderate the association between interpersonal guanxi and interfirm trust. Based on a paired survey between salespersons and sales managers and two secondary datasets, this study finds that interpersonal guanxi is positively associated with interfirm trust. (...) Moreover, this positive effect is stronger when firms operate in regions with strong government–market relationships and strong Buddhism influence. In addition, the positive relationship is weaker when guanxi resides in boundary spanners who have relatively high role performance, but becomes stronger when boundary spanners have a broad span of partner control. These findings highlight the situations in which guanxi at an interpersonal level is more or less likely to foster interfirm trust. (shrink)