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Carl G. Wagner [17]Carl Wagner [16]Carlos G. Wagner [1]
  1. Carl Wagner & Mark Shattuck (2014). An Impossibility Theorem for Allocation Aggregation. Journal of Philosophical Logic 43 (6):1173-1186.
    Among the many sorts of problems encountered in decision theory, allocation problems occupy a central position. Such problems call for the assignment of a nonnegative real number to each member of a finite (more generally, countable) set of entities, in such a way that the values so assigned sum to some fixed positive real number s. Familiar cases include the problem of specifying a probability mass function on a countable set of possible states of the world (s=1), and the distribution (...)
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  2. Carl Wagner (2013). An Introduction to the Philosophy of Mathematics, by Mark Colyvan. Teaching Philosophy 36 (3):316-320.
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  3. Carl Wagner (2013). Is Conditioning Really Incompatible with Holism? Journal of Philosophical Logic 42 (2):409-414.
    Jonathan Weisberg claims that certain probability assessments constructed by Jeffrey conditioning resist subsequent revision by a certain type of after-the-fact defeater of the reasons supporting those assessments, and that such conditioning is thus “inherently anti-holistic.” His analysis founders, however, in applying Jeffrey conditioning to a partition for which an essential rigidity condition clearly fails. Applied to an appropriate partition, Jeffrey conditioning is amenable to revision by the sort of after-the-fact defeaters considered by Weisberg in precisely the way that he demands.
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  4. Carl G. Wagner (2013). The Corroboration Paradox. Synthese 190 (8):1455-1469.
    Evidentiary propositions E 1 and E 2, each p-positively relevant to some hypothesis H, are mutually corroborating if p(H|E 1 ∩ E 2) > p(H|E i ), i = 1, 2. Failures of such mutual corroboration are instances of what may be called the corroboration paradox. This paper assesses two rather different analyses of the corroboration paradox due, respectively, to John Pollock and Jonathan Cohen. Pollock invokes a particular embodiment of the principle of insufficient reason to argue that instances of (...)
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  5. Carl Wagner (2011). Peer Disagreement and Independence Preservation. Erkenntnis 74 (2):277-288.
    It has often been recommended that the differing probability distributions of a group of experts should be reconciled in such a way as to preserve each instance of independence common to all of their distributions. When probability pooling is subject to a universal domain condition, along with state-wise aggregation, there are severe limitations on implementing this recommendation. In particular, when the individuals are epistemic peers whose probability assessments are to be accorded equal weight, universal preservation of independence is, with a (...)
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  6. Carlos G. Wagner (2010). Sobre inciensos, trances y (algunas) diosas. Una perspectiva etnobotánica. 'Ilu. Revista de Ciencias de Las Religiones 15:91-103.
    The incense used in some cults and oracles in antiquity seems to have possessed the power to induce visions and prophecies. a study of its components, from an ethnobotanical perspective, reveals us their psychoactive power.
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  7. Carl Wagner, Allocation Aggregation for a Finite Valuation Domain.
    A decision problem in which the values of the decision variables must sum to a fixed positive real number s is called an "allocation problem," and the problem of aggregating the allocations of n experts the "allocation aggregation problem." Under two simple axiomatic restrictions on aggregation, the only acceptable allocation aggregation method is based on weighted arithmetic averaging (Lehrer and Wagner, Rational Consensus in Science and Society, 1981). In this note it is demonstrated that when the values assigned to the (...)
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  8. Carl Wagner, Jeffrey Conditioning and External Bayesianity.
    Abstract. Suppose that several individuals who have separately assessed prior probability distributions over a set of possible states of the world wish to pool their individual distributions into a single group distribution, while taking into account jointly perceived new evidence. They have the option of (i) first updating their individual priors and then pooling the resulting posteriors or (ii) first pooling their priors and then updating the resulting group prior. If the pooling method that they employ is such that they (...)
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  9. Carl G. Wagner (2007). The Smith-Walley Interpretation of Subjective Probability: An Appreciation. Studia Logica 86 (2):343 - 350.
    The right interpretation of subjective probability is implicit in the theories of upper and lower odds, and upper and lower previsions, developed, respectively, by Cedric Smith (1961) and Peter Walley (1991). On this interpretation you are free to assign contingent events the probability 1 (and thus to employ conditionalization as a method of probability revision) without becoming vulnerable to a weak Dutch book.
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  10. Carl G. Wagner (2004). Modus Tollens Probabilized. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 55 (4):747-753.
    We establish a probabilized version of modus tollens, deriving from p(E|H)=a and p()=b the best possible bounds on p(). In particular, we show that p() 1 as a, b 1, and also as a, b 0. Introduction Probabilities of conditionals Conditional probabilities 3.1 Adams' thesis 3.2 Modus ponens for conditional probabilities 3.3 Modus tollens for conditional probabilities.
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  11. Carl G. Wagner (2003). Commuting Probability Revisions: The Uniformity Rule. [REVIEW] Erkenntnis 59 (3):349-364.
    A simple rule of probability revision ensures that the final result ofa sequence of probability revisions is undisturbed by an alterationin the temporal order of the learning prompting those revisions.This Uniformity Rule dictates that identical learning be reflectedin identical ratios of certain new-to-old odds, and is grounded in the oldBayesian idea that such ratios represent what is learned from new experiencealone, with prior probabilities factored out. The main theorem of this paperincludes as special cases (i) Field's theorem on commuting probability-kinematical (...)
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  12. Carl G. Wagner (2003). Commuting Probability Revisions: The Uniformity Rule: In Memoriam Richard Jeffrey, 1926-2002. Erkenntnis 59 (3):349 - 364.
    A simple rule of probability revision ensures that the final result of a sequence of probability revisions is undisturbed by an alteration in the temporal order of the learning prompting those revisions. This Uniformity Rule dictates that identical learning be reflected in identical ratios of certain new-to-old odds, and is grounded in the old Bayesian idea that such ratios represent what is learned from new experience alone, with prior probabilities factored out. The main theorem of this paper includes as special (...)
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  13. Carl G. Wagner (2003). Two Dogmas of Probabilism. In Olsson Erik (ed.), The Epistemology of Keith Lehrer. Kluwer. 143--152.
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  14. Michael Friedman, Robert DiSalle, J. D. Trout, Shaun Nichols, Maralee Harrell, Clark Glymour, Carl G. Wagner, Kent W. Staley, Jesús P. Zamora Bonilla & Frederick M. Kronz (2002). 10. Interpreting Quantum Field Theory Interpreting Quantum Field Theory (Pp. 348-378). Philosophy of Science 69 (2).
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  15. Carl G. Wagner (2002). Probability Kinematics and Commutativity. Philosophy of Science 69 (2):266-278.
    The so-called "non-commutativity" of probability kinematics has caused much unjustified concern. When identical learning is properly represented, namely, by identical Bayes factors rather than identical posterior probabilities, then sequential probability-kinematical revisions behave just as they should. Our analysis is based on a variant of Field's reformulation of probability kinematics, divested of its (inessential) physicalist gloss.
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  16. Carl G. Wagner (2001). Old Evidence and New Explanation III. Philosophy of Science 68 (3):S165 - S175.
    Garber (1983) and Jeffrey (1991, 1995) have both proposed solutions to the old evidence problem. Jeffrey's solution, based on a new probability revision method called reparation, has been generalized to the case of uncertain old evidence and probabilistic new explanation in Wagner 1997, 1999. The present paper reformulates some of the latter work, highlighting the central role of Bayes factors and their associated uniformity principle, and extending the analysis to the case in which an hypothesis bears on a countable family (...)
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  17. Carl G. Wagner (1999). Misadventures in Conditional Expectation: The Two-Envelope Problem. [REVIEW] Erkenntnis 51 (2-3):233-241.
    Several fallacies of conditionalization are illustrated, using the two-envelope problem as a case in point.
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  18. Carl G. Wagner (1999). Old Evidence and New Explanation II. Philosophy of Science 66 (2):283-288.
    Additional results are reported on the author's earlier generalization of Richard Jeffrey's solution to the problem of old evidence and new explanation.
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  19. Keith Lehrer & Carl Wagner (1998). Reid, Hume and Common Sense. Reid Studies 2 (1):15-26.
     
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  20. Carl G. Wagner (1997). Old Evidence and New Explanation. Philosophy of Science 64 (4):677-691.
    Jeffrey has devised a probability revision method that increases the probability of hypothesis H when it is discovered that H implies previously known evidence E. A natural extension of Jeffrey's method likewise increases the probability of H when E has been established with sufficiently high probability and it is then discovered, quite apart from this, that H confers sufficiently higher probability on E than does its logical negation H̄.
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  21. Carl G. Wagner (1992). Generalized Probability Kinematics. Erkenntnis 36 (2):245 - 257.
    Jeffrey conditionalization is generalized to the case in which new evidence bounds the possible revisions of a prior below by a Dempsterian lower probability. Classical probability kinematics arises within this generalization as the special case in which the evidentiary focal elements of the bounding lower probability are pairwise disjoint.
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  22. Carl G. Wagner (1991). Corroboration and Conditional Positive Relevance. Philosophical Studies 61 (3):295 - 300.
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  23. Carl G. Wagner (1991). Simpson's Paradox and the Fisher-Newcomb Problem. Grazer Philosophische Studien 40:185-194.
    It is shown that the Fisher smoking problem and Newcomb's problem are decisiontheoretically identical, each having at its core an identical case of Simpson's paradox for certain probabilities. From this perspective, incorrect solutions to these problems arise from treating them as cases of decisionmaking under risk, while adopting certain global empirical conditional probabilities as the relevant subjective probabihties. The most natural correct solutions employ the methodology of decisionmaking under uncertainty with lottery acts, with certain local empirical conditional probabilities adopted as (...)
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  24. Carl G. Wagner (1989). Consensus for Belief Functions and Related Uncertainty Measures. Theory and Decision 26 (3):295-304.
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  25. Keith Lehrer & Carl Wagner (1985). Intransitive Indifference: The Semi-Order Problem. Synthese 65 (2):249 - 256.
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  26. Carl Wagner (1985). On the Formal Properties of Weighted Averaging as a Method of Aggregation. Synthese 62 (1):97 - 108.
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  27. Carl Wagner (1984). Aggregating Subjective Probabilities: Some Limitative Theorems. Notre Dame Journal of Formal Logic 25 (3):233-240.
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  28. Carl Wagner (1984). Avoiding Anscombe's Paradox. Theory and Decision 16 (3):233-238.
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  29. Keith Lehrer & Carl Wagner (1983). Probability Amalgamation and the Independence Issue: A Reply to Laddaga. Synthese 55 (3):339 - 346.
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  30. Carl Wagner (1983). Anscombe's Paradox and the Rule of Three-Fourths. Theory and Decision 15 (3):303-308.
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  31. Carl Wagner (1982). Allocation, Lehrer Models, and the Consensus of Probabilities. Theory and Decision 14 (2):207-220.
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  32. Keith Lehrer & Carl Wagner (1981). Rational Consensus in Science and Society. Boston: D. Reidel.
    CONSENSUS AND PHILOSOPHICAL ISSUES Various atomistic and individualistic theories of knowledge, language, ethics and politics have dominated philosophical ...
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  33. Carl Wagner (1978). Consensus Through Respect: A Model of Rational Group Decision-Making. Philosophical Studies 34 (4):335 - 349.
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  34. Thomas M. Hearne & Carl G. Wagner (1974). Boolean Subtractive Algebras. Notre Dame Journal of Formal Logic 15 (2):317-324.
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