Research in the fields of complex problem solving (CPS) and dynamic decision making using microworlds has been mainly conducted in Western industrialized countries. This study analyzes the CPS process by investigating thinking‐aloud protocols in five countries. Participants were 511 students from Brazil, Germany, India, the Philippines, and the United States who worked on two microworlds. On the basis of cultural‐psychological theories, specific cross‐national differences in CPS strategies were hypothesized. Following theories of situatedness of cognition, hypotheses about the specific frequency of (...) problem‐solving strategies in the two microworlds were developed. Results of the verbal protocols showed (a) modification of the theoretical CPS model, (b) task dependence of CPS strategies, and (c) cross‐national differences in CPS strategies. Participants’ CPS processes were particularly influenced by country‐specific problem‐solving strategies. (shrink)

The Role of Motivation in Complex Problem SolvingPrevious research on Complex Problem Solving (CPS) has primarily focused on cognitive factors as outlined below. The current paper discusses the role of motivation during CPS and argues that motivation, emotion, and cognition interact and cannot be studied in an isolated manner. Motivation is the process that determines the energization and direction of behavior (Heckhausen, 1991).Three motivation theories and their relation to CPS are examined: McClelland’s achievement motivation, Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, and Dörner’s (...) needs as outlined in PSI-theory. We chose these three theories for several reasons. First, space forces us to be selective. Second, the three theories are among the most prominent motivational theories. Finally, they are need theories postulating several motivations and not just one. A thinking-aloud protocol is provided to illustrate the role of motivational and cognitive dynamics in CPS. Problems are part of all the domains of human life. The field of CPS investigates problems that are complex, dynamic, and non-transparent (Dörner, 1996). Complex problems consist of many interactively interrelated variables. Dynamic ones change and develop further over time, regardless of whether the involved people take action. And non-transparent problems have many aspects of the problem situation that are unclear or unknown to the involved people. CPS researchers focus exactly on such kinds of problems. Under a narro... (shrink)

What political, economic, religious, and emotional factors are involved in a person's decision to kill civilians and military personnel through the sacrifice of his or her own life? Data for this research were secondary analyses of interviews with Islamic martyrs, as well as their leaders’ speeches. This investigation into the cultural-psychological explanations for Islamic martyrdom leads to a model explaining a person's decision to carry out the mission as resulting from a combination of four factors: the historical-cultural context, group processes, (...) immediate and anticipated rewards, and mechanisms to eradicate possible doubts and guilt regarding this decision. Compared to existing models, this model is more integrative and focused on the psychological processes involved. (shrink)

Thinking aloud is the concurrent verbalization of thoughts while performing a task. The study of thinking-aloud protocols has a long tradition in cognitive psychology, the field of education, and the industrial-organizational context. It has been used rarely in cultural and cross-cultural psychology. This paper will describe thinking aloud as a useful method in cultural and cross-cultural psychology referring to a few studies in general and one study in particular to show the wide applications of this method. Thinking-aloud protocols can be (...) applied for a) improving the validity of cross-cultural surveys, b) process analysis of thoughts and the analysis of changes over time, c) theory development across cultures, d) the study of cultural meaning systems, and e) individual as well as group level analyses allowing hypothesis testing cross-culturally. Limitations of the thinking-aloud method are also discussed. (shrink)

Given Van de Vliert's impressive dataset and prognoses, I will discuss three limitations. First, the evolutionary argument does not adequately take into account how political changes influence freedoms. Second, the operationalizations of needs and freedoms are limited and questionable. Third, a direct relationship between climate, monetary resources, and psychological variables is a simplification neglecting various intervening variables.

ZusammenfassungDie rasanten technischen Fortschritte in der Genomforschung ermöglichen heute schon die Sequenzierung des einzelnen menschlichen Genoms in wenigen Tagen und zu vertretbaren Kosten. In der Krebsforschung ermöglicht die genetische Sequenzanalyse, zunehmend die Defekte zu identifizieren, die für das Tumorwachstum bei jedem einzelnen Patienten verantwortlich sind. Auf dieser Basis können zielgerichteter Therapien entwickelt werden. Diese Forschung wirft jedoch auch neue, ethische Fragen auf. Diesen normativen Fragen widmet sich in Heidelberg das interdisziplinäre EURAT Projekt mit dem Ziel, ethisch und rechtlich informierte Lösungen (...) zu formulieren und zu etablieren.Dieser Beitrag gibt zum einen einen Überblick über die ethischen und klinischen Fragen, die für den Aufklärungs- und Einwilligungsprozess in die biobankbasierte Genomforschung relevant sind. Zum anderen wird als organisationsethische Antwort auf die Frage, wie eine Forschungsinstitution den verantwortungsvollen Umgang mit genetischen Informationen in Biobanken über die verschiedenen Berufsgruppen und beteiligten Institute hinweg sichern kann, ein Verhaltenskodex vorgestellt. Eine gut begründete, informierte Zustimmung und ein Verhaltenskodex sind beides Elemente einer „Best Practice Leitlinie“ und sollen den verantwortlichen Umgang aller beteiligten Mitarbeiter mit sensiblen genetischen Daten prägen. (shrink)

Die rasanten technischen Fortschritte in der Genomforschung ermöglichen heute schon die Sequenzierung des einzelnen menschlichen Genoms in wenigen Tagen und zu vertretbaren Kosten. In der Krebsforschung ermöglicht die genetische Sequenzanalyse, zunehmend die Defekte zu identifizieren, die für das Tumorwachstum bei jedem einzelnen Patienten verantwortlich sind. Auf dieser Basis können zielgerichteter Therapien entwickelt werden. Diese Forschung wirft jedoch auch neue, ethische Fragen auf. Diesen normativen Fragen widmet sich in Heidelberg das interdisziplinäre EURAT Projekt mit dem Ziel, ethisch und rechtlich informierte Lösungen (...) zu formulieren und zu etablieren.Dieser Beitrag gibt zum einen einen Überblick über die ethischen und klinischen Fragen, die für den Aufklärungs- und Einwilligungsprozess in die biobankbasierte Genomforschung relevant sind. Zum anderen wird als organisationsethische Antwort auf die Frage, wie eine Forschungsinstitution den verantwortungsvollen Umgang mit genetischen Informationen in Biobanken über die verschiedenen Berufsgruppen und beteiligten Institute hinweg sichern kann, ein Verhaltenskodex vorgestellt. Eine gut begründete, informierte Zustimmung und ein Verhaltenskodex sind beides Elemente einer „Best Practice Leitlinie“ und sollen den verantwortlichen Umgang aller beteiligten Mitarbeiter mit sensiblen genetischen Daten prägen. (shrink)

ZusammenfassungIn einem Modellprojekt soll durch die Einführung einer persönlichen, einrichtungsübergreifenden, elektronischen Patientenakte nicht nur die Behandlungskontinuität verbessert, sondern auch das Recht auf informationelle Selbstbestimmung dahingehend realisiert werden, dass jeder Patient zum Administrator einer Datencloud gemacht wird, die alle seine Gesundheitsdaten enthält. Eine systematische Literaturrecherche zum Thema „elektronische Patientenakten “ soll mögliche ethische Herausforderungen in Verbindung mit der oben genannten PEPA antizipieren. Von initial 2487 Publikationen wurden 51 Publikationen ausgewertet: 30 empirische Studien, 10 medizinethische Analysen und 11 Meinungspapiere. In den empirischen (...) Studien wurden als erste Effekte einer EPA vor allem eine vollständigere medizinische Aktenlage beschrieben. Mit der Einsichtsmöglichkeit für den Patienten in die EPA konnten zusätzlich ein besseres Krankheitsverständnis und damit erhöhte Compliance des Patienten nachgewiesen werden. Eine Verbesserung der Behandlungsqualität wurde auf die Fehlervermeidung durch Patienteneinsicht, effektivere Nutzung der Arzt-Patienten-Besuche und das verbesserte Verständnis für das Therapiekonzept zurückgeführt. Ebenfalls wurde in den Studien eine Stärkung des Vertrauensverhältnisses von Arzt und Patient beschrieben. Bedenken gab es im Vorfeld vieler Studien hinsichtlich des Datenschutzes, eines möglichen Verlustes der persönlichen Arzt-Patienten-Beziehung und einer potentiellen Überforderung des Patienten. In der Beurteilung der EPA spielte die Abwägung zwischen ärztlicher Fürsorge und Patientenautonomie eine große Rolle. Die von medizinethischer Seite geäußerten Bedenken bezüglich eines Vertrauensverlustes oder einer Störung des Arzt-Patienten-Verhältnisses konnten in den empirischen Studien nicht bestätigt werden. Die befürchteten Risiken im Datenschutz wurden von den Betroffenen zugunsten des potentiellen Nutzens einer EPA abgewogen. Unter Wahrung des Datenschutzes hat daher die PEPA das Potential, durch die Mitbeteiligung des Patienten das Arzt-Patienten-Verhältnis positiv zu beeinflussen. Die spezifischen ethischen Herausforderungen, die mit der Co-Verwaltung der PEPA einhergehen, werden im Modellprojekt untersucht. (shrink)

Data-sharing among genomic researchers is promoted for its potential to accelerate our understanding of the molecular basis of cancer. However, with genomic data sharing the risks of re-identifying study participants, revealing personal genomic information and data misuse might increase. This study aims at exploring perceptions of patients and physicians in Oncology regarding their assessment of the informational risks resulting from participating in whole genomic research studies in order to improve the informed consent process. For this purpose, we conducted a qualitative (...) focus group study at the National Center for Tumor Diseases. Patients and oncologists assessed the informational risks either as minimal or as greater than minimal, depending on the context factors of occupational status, age, and patients’ prognosis. Interestingly, even patients who assumed a greater risk did not refrain from participating in genomic research, provided that certain informational and institutional safeguards are implemented. Moreover, they expected comprehensive disclosure of the risks resulting from genomic data sharing. These results suggest comprehensive disclosure of the risks of genomic research to potential study participants in genomic research to facilitate risk assessment and sound decision making, establishing independent governance entities in order to minimize the informational risks of genomic research, and implementing data sharing policies which offer guidance for physicians and researchers involved in genomic research. (shrink)

Several commentators, among them R. Rorty, argue that Cartesian ideas are to be understood as internal objects or pictures that are presented to the mind on an 'inner arena'. In this paper I intend to show that such an interpretation is flawed if one takes into account Descartes' definition of ideas as mental a c t s having a representational content. I analyze this definition, paying particular attention to three crucial theses: intentionality is an intrinsic feature of all mental acts; (...) mental acts primarily represent the essence of an object, not the existing object; the object, insofar as it is presented to the mind, determines the socalled Objective reality' of an idea. I reach the conclusion that one ought to be careful in attributing a representational theory to Descartes. His theory may be called representational only if it is understood as a theory about representing mental acts that are immediately directed towards external objects. (shrink)

Vivarium (VIV) is an international journal dedicated to the history of philosophy and intellectual life from the early Middle Ages to the early modern era. It is widely recognized as an unrivalled resource for the history of logic, semantics, epistemology, and metaphysics. It welcomes articles on medieval, Renaissance and early-modern thinkers, their ideas, arguments, and writings, as well as the institutional and intellectual life of this period. -/- Editions of texts as brief appendices to the main articles may be added. (...) Articles on early-modern philosophy are welcome if they link it with the medieval and Renaissance traditions. Articles on Arabic and Jewish thought are welcome if there is a clear connection with the Latin tradition. Vivarium also publishes regularly special issues devoted to a particular theme or philosopher. (shrink)

This paper presents a calculus for mereotopological reasoning in which two-dimensional spatial regions are treated as primitive entities. A first order predicate language ℒ with a distinguished unary predicate c(x), function-symbols +, · and - and constants 0 and 1 is defined. An interpretation ℜ for ℒ is provided in which polygonal open subsets of the real plane serve as elements of the domain. Under this interpretation the predicate c(x) is read as 'region x is connected' and the function-symbols and (...) constants are given their meaning in terms of a Boolean algebra of polygons. We give an alternative interpretation ������ base on the real closed plane which turns out to be isomorphic to ℜ. A set of axioms and a rule of inference are introduced. We prove the soundness and completeness of the calculus with respect to the given interpretation. (shrink)

Sometimes it takes years of debate for philosophers to discover what it is they really disagree about. Sometimes they talk past each other in long series of books and articles, never guessing at the root disagreement that divides them. But occasionally a day comes when something happens to coax the cat out of the bag. "Aha!" one philosopher exclaims to another, "so that's why you've been disagreeing with me, misunderstanding me, resisting my conclusions, puzzling me all these years!".

A region-based model of physical space is one in which the primitive spatial entities are regions, rather than points, and in which the primitive spatial relations take regions, rather than points, as their relata. Historically, the most intensively investigated region-based models are those whose primitive relations are topological in character; and the study of the topology of physical space from a region-based perspective has come to be called mereotopology. This paper concentrates on a mereotopological formalism originally introduced by Whitehead, which (...) employs a single primitive binary relation C(x, y) (read: "x is in contact with y"). Thus, in this formalism, all topological facts supervene on facts about contact. Because of its potential application to theories of qualitative spatial reasoning, Whitehead's primitive has recently been the subject of scrutiny from within the Artificial Intelligence community. Various results regarding the mereotopology of the Euclidean plane have been obtained, settling such issues as expressive power, axiomatization and the existence of alternative models. The contribution of the present paper is to extend some of these results to the mereotopology of three-dimensional Euclidean space. Specifically, we show that, in a first-order setting where variables range over tame subsets of ℝ³, Whitehead's primitive is maximally expressive for topological relations; and we deduce a corollary constraining the possible region-based models of the space we inhabit. (shrink)

Die Frage, wie sich Aussagen uber Fahigkeiten von Personen zu Aussagen uber Moglichkeiten von Zustanden in der Welt verhalten, ist fur unser menschliches Selbstverstandnis zentral. Der vorliegende Band versammelt unter dieser Frage durchweg Originalbeitrage in historisch-systematischer Absicht; sie behandeln die Geschichte der Metaphysik und Ontologie von Parmenides bis Heidegger.INHALT: VORWORT - Klaus Jacobi: Das Konnen und die Moglichkeiten. Potentialitat und Possibilitat - Mischa von Perger: Moglichkeit, Parmenideisch - Ulrich Nortmann: 'Das Saatkorn ist dem Vermogen nach eine Pflanze'. Uber ontologische und (...) logische Aspekte Aristotelischer Moglichkeitssatze - Sang-Jin Kang: Anselm und die modallogische Betrachtung der gottlichen Notwendigkeit - Michael Astroh: Petrus Abaelardus on Modalities de re and de dicto - Christopher Martin: Peter Abaelard on Modality. Some Possibilities and Some Puzzles - Allan Back: Avicenna and Averroes: Modality and Theology - Seung-Chan (Elias) Park: Die Differenz von personlicher und unpersonlicher Moglichkeit bei Thomas von Aquin - Charles Lohr: 'Art' and Possibility: The Rule Concerning Possibility in the Ars lulliana - Peter King: Duns Scotus on Possibilities, Powers, and the Possible - Matthias Kaufmann: Gottes Allmacht und die Wahrheit modaler Satze. Potentialitat und Possibilitat bei Wilhelm von Ockham - Simo Knuuttila: On the History of Theory of Modality as Alternativeness - Stephan Meier-Oeser: Potentia versus Possibilitas? Posse! Zur cusanischen Konzeption der Moglichkeit - Dominik Perler: Cartesische Moglichkeiten - Hans Poser: Leibniz'sche Handlungsmodi zwischen Ontologie und Deontologie - Wilhelm Metz: Der transzendentale Moglichkeitsbegriff bei Kant und Fichte - Rainer Marten: Heidegger: Die eigenste eigentliche Moglichkeit - Tilman Borsche: Moglichkeiten des Seins, Moglichkeiten des Denkens - Thomas Buchheim: Zwischen Antinomie und Kompatibilitat: Versuch uber die naturliche Einbettung unserer Handlungsfreiheit - Kuno Lorenz: Dynamis und Energeia. Zur Aktualitat eines begrifflichen Werkzeugs von Aristoteles. (shrink)

This book, first published in 1962, is based on a series of lectures first given at Cambridge University in 1959 and 1960, dealing with 'psychical research' - i.e. the scientific investigation of ostensibly paranormal phenomena. Split into three sections, Professor Broad's study examines numerous issues relating to psychical theory, including guessing, hallucinatory quasi-perception and trance-mediumship.

This book, first published in 1962, is based on a series of lectures first given at Cambridge University in 1959 and 1960, dealing with 'psychical research' - i.e. the scientific investigation of ostensibly paranormal phenomena. Split into three sections, Professor Broad's study examines numerous issues relating to psychical theory, including guessing, hallucinatory quasi-perception and trance-mediumship.

This book would be very important indeed if Mr. Spencer Brown had substantiated his claims “that the concept of probability used in statistical science is meaningless in its own terms” , and that confirming this is the only significance of experiments in psychical research. The six short introductory chapters need not be discussed here. It is in Chapters VII to IX that the author develops his thesis that the concept of randomness is self–contradictory, and the statistician's concept of probability consequently (...) meaningless. I shall examine what I take to be the central argument leading to this conclusion. This is developed from a distinction between “primary chance or randomness” and “secondary chance or randomness” . The former concept is to be applicable only to individual events and is to depend upon their “unexpectedness or unpredictability”; the latter concept, applicable only to a series as such, is denned as “possessing no discernible pattern” . The definition of “primary randomness” is amplified, but not clarified, on page 49: “An event is primarily random in so far as... one cannot be sure of its occurrence... The only relevant criterion is that we are able to guess ”. We are then told that primary randomness “admits of analysis in subjective terms”, since the same event may be predictable by one person but unpredictable by another; whereas secondary randomness is “a more objective concept”. (shrink)

We address some concerns related to the use of post-trial attribution judgments, originally developed for artificial grammar learning , during the version of the serial reaction time task used by Fu, Dienes, and Fu . In particular, intuition attributions, which are central to Fu et al.’s arguments, seem problematic: This attribution is likely to be made when stimuli contain several competing sources of information to which subjective feelings could be attributed. The interpretation of intuition attributions in Fu et al.’s SRT (...) generation task is problematic because the procedure involved a 2-element sequence where items varied only in position. In our view, responses categorised as intuitions might have been a variety of guess response where neither judgement knowledge nor structural knowledge were conscious. The results would then be compatible with previous findings showing that people can control the use of unconscious structural knowledge even when judgement knowledge is unconscious. (shrink)

A review of the 1st edition of Lepore's Meaning and Argument, in which the reviewer (me), on the one hand, says that the text contains no proof theory and, on the other, subsequently notes that Lepore makes use of the truth tree method. I guess, at the time, I thought that only axiomatic systems and natural deduction systems fell under the rubric "proof theory". Sorry. Other than that I suppose the review is mildly informative.

In attempting to determine the text of Sophocles in the places presently to be discussed, it is notmy purpose to put forward a series of novelties which, though more or less plausible, are essentially incapableof proof. I seek rather to plead for the reception of certain ascertained but neglected variants, and to establish their claims by a survey of the relevant evidence. After a somewhat prolonged study of the data, I am convinced that the chief hope of progress— apart from (...) the discovery of fresh material—lies in a more methodical use of the ancient scholia and lexicographers. Although their value has long been acknowledged, they have been employed unintelligently or at haphazard, largely because the character of their information and its sources have been imperfectly understood. One of the chief aids which they afford is in passages where the genuine reading has been displaced by an explanatory gloss. This is a possibility which critics have always recognized, but, while ready enough to suggest that the word selected for expulsion is a gloss on some other, they frequently fail to demonstrate that it is used as a gloss at all. Leaving such guess–work aside, we shall still find various grades of probability. It should be a minimum requirement that the word removed from the text is, either itself or as one of a class, a well-attested gloss of the proposed substitute. Thus in El. 800, where LA with most other MSS. have καταξως but four of the recentiores κατ' ξιαν, I think that Bothe and Monk were right in preferring κατάξι' ν. (shrink)

Summary Meteorology, a scientific discipline almost exclusively associated with weather forecasting in the first half of the twentieth century in the USA, was viewed with disdain by more mathematically based scientific communities. A descriptive science lacking in physical and mathematical rigor, meteorology was typically without an academic home in US colleges and universities. This stood in sharp contrast to the meteorological communities across the Atlantic which were supported by dedicated geophysical institutes. Four factors kept US meteorologists, unlike their European colleagues, (...) on the fringes of the scientific mainstream: a lack of ?rigor?, a lack of academic presence, a lack of patronage (governmental or private), and a pervasive public view that meteorological information was ?free? and yet should be tailored to a variety of users. The symbiotic relationship of these factors created an almost insurmountable hurdle to disciplinary advancement. That hurdle was effectively overcome in mid-century when the military demands of the Second World War presented meteorology with the opportunity to leave behind its legacy as a ?guessing science? and assume its place as a mathematically and physically based theoretical scientific discipline. (shrink)

In the preceding article, Buchner and Wippich used a guessing-corrected, multinomial process-dissociation analysis to test whether a gender bias in fame judgments reported by Banaji and Greenwald was unconscious. In their two experiments, Buchner and Wippich found no evidence for unconscious mediation of this gender bias. Their conclusion can be questioned by noting that the gender difference in familiarity of previously seen names that Buchner and Wippich modeled was different from the gender difference in criterion for fame judgments reported by (...) Banaji and Greenwald, the assumptions of Buchner and Wippich's multinomial model excluded processes that are plausibly involved in the fame judgment task, and the constructs of Buchner and Wippich's model that corresponded most closely to Banaji and Greenwald's gender-bias interpretation were formulated so as to preclude the possibility of modeling that interpretation. Perhaps a more complex multinomial model can model the Banaji and Greenwald interpretation. (shrink)

We studied how people attribute action outcomes to their own actions under conditions of uncertainty. Participants chose between left and right keypresses to produce an action effect , while a computer player made a simultaneous keypress decision. In each trial, a random generator determined which of the players controlled the action effect at varying probabilities, and participants then judged which player had produced it. Participants’ effect control ranged from 20% to 80%, varied blockwise, and they could use trial-by-trial feedback to (...) optimize the accuracy of their agency judgments. Participants tended to attribute action effects to themselves , probably reflecting a rational guessing strategy of always naming the more likely player. However, participants systematically neglected information favoring the computer player as the agent, even under conditions where this bias could only harm judgment accuracy. We conclude that agency biases have both rational and irrational components. (shrink)

This study examined possible ways to ensure that participants provide fully informed consent for online surveys. Participants were randomly assigned to read either a traditional informed consent or one of three modified versions: enhanced, consent for each key element, or a combination of these two. Those who read the combination version scored higher on a comprehension quiz, guessed at fewer questions, and were more likely to read all of the informed consent than those who received the traditional version. These findings (...) suggest that comprehension can be improved by adopting alternatives to the traditional informed consent. (shrink)

“Scientific research faces up with an open and unknown world”Within the work of C. S. Peirce, the most fundamental and contentious form of inference is that of abduction. According to Peirce, abduction is the only type of inference from which new ideas are created (CP 5.171, 1903). He wrote, “every single item of scientific theory which stands established today has been due to Abduction” (CP 5.172, 1903). Similarly, “All that makes knowledge applicable comes to us viâ abduction. […] Not the (...) smallest advance can be made in knowledge beyond the stage of vacant staring, without making an abduction at every step” (HP 2:899–900, 1901). It is little wonder that so much attention has been paid to this particular type of.. (shrink)

We investigate the interaction between compactness principles and guessing principles in the Radin forcing extensions. In particular, we show that in any Radin forcing extension with respect to a measure sequence on [Formula: see text], if [Formula: see text] is weakly compact, then [Formula: see text] holds. This provides contrast with a well-known theorem of Woodin, who showed that in a certain Radin extension over a suitably prepared ground model relative to the existence of large cardinals, the diamond principle fails (...) at a strongly inaccessible Mahlo cardinal. Refining the analysis of the Radin extensions, we consistently demonstrate a scenario where a compactness principle, stronger than the diagonal stationary reflection principle, holds yet the diamond principle fails at a strongly inaccessible cardinal, improving a result from [O. B. -Neria, Diamonds, compactness, and measure sequences, J. Math. Log. 19(1) (2019) 1950002]. (shrink)

In lieu of an abstract, here is a brief excerpt of the content:164. HUME'S MISTAKE — ANOTHER GUESS Richard Price's first biographer reports that David Hume once "candidly acknowledged that on one point Mr. Price had succeeded in convincing him that his arguments were inconclusive; but it does not appear that Mr. Hume, in consequence of this conviction, made any alteration in the subsequent edition of his Essays." It has 2 been suggested that Hume's avowed mistake is to be found (...) in his 'Of Miracles', a section of An Inquiry Concerning Human Understanding which is severely criticized in the 3 fourth of Price's Four Dissertations. This suggestion receives some support from Hume's generous response to Price's criticism: I own to you, that the Light in which you have put this Controversy, is new and plausible and ingenious, and perhaps solid. But I must have some more time to weigh it, before I can pronounce this Judgment with Satisfaction to myself. My present Occupations shall not deprive me of the Leizure requisite for that Purpose; as no Object can possibly have equal Importance. However, there is no evidence that after studying Price's arguments Hume came to regard them as "solid" and his own as inconclusive or mistaken. The fact that Hume never revised his essay on miracles in order to accommodate Price's criticisms seems good evidence that that work does not contain Hume's mistake. Most fortunately there is another plausible candidate. In A Review of the Principal Questions in Morals Price criticized several of Hume's philosophical conclusions and arguments, including the central argument of A Treatise of Human Nature, Book I Part IV Section I ('Of scepticism with regard to reason'). This very complicated argument is a novel application of John Craig's "celebrated argument against the Christian Religion." Price summarizes and then criticizes Hume's argument as follows: 165. In every judgment we can form, besides the uncertainty attending the original consideration of the subject itself; there is another derived from the consideration of the fallibility of our faculties, and the past instances in which we have been mistaken; to which must be added a third uncertainty, derived from the possibility of error in this estimation we make of the fidelity of our faculties; and to this a fourth of the same kind, and so on in infinitum; till at last the first evidence, by a constant diminution of it, must be reduced to nothing. See Mr. Hume's Treatise of Human Nature, Vol. I. p. 315, & c. As much of this strange reasoning as is not above my comprehension, proves just the reverse of what was intended by it. For let it be acknowledged, that the consideration of the fallibility of our understandings, and the instances in which they have deceived us, necessarily diminishes our assurance of the rectitude of our sentiments ; the subsequent reflection on the uncertainty attending this judgment which we make of our faculties, diminishes not, but contributes to restore to its first strength, our original assurance; because the more precarious a judgment or probability unfavourable to another appears, the less must be its effect in weakening it. Hume's argument has been described as "one of the worst arguments ever to impose itself on a man of genius." Moreover, Hume himself may have become dissatisfied with it, 166. for it appears to be the only major argument of Treatise I_ which he did not recast in some form in his post-Treatise 0 writings. If Price's criticism is telling, then Hume probably would have readily acknowledged that his juvenile argument in 'Of scepticism with regard to reason' was mistaken. David Raynor Mount Allison University 1.William Morgan, Memoirs of the Life of The Rev. Richard Price, D.D., F. R. S. (London, 1815) 16f. 2.Bernard Peach, "Hume's Mistake", Journal of the History of Ideas XLI (1980), 331-334. See also Price-Priestly Newsletter, No. 2 (1978), 76-81. 3.Four Dissertations. (London, 1767). For a brief account of Price's Bayesian critique of Hume's views on miracles see Bernard Peach, "Miracles, Methodology, and Metaphysical Rationalism", International Journal for Philosophy of Religion IX (1978), 69-74. 4.Hume to Price, 18 March 1767: New Letters of David... (shrink)

Many have claimed that epistemic rationality sometimes requires us to have imprecise credal states (i.e. credal states representable only by sets of credence functions) rather than precise ones (i.e. credal states representable by single credence functions). Some writers have recently argued that this claim conflicts with accuracy-centered epistemology, i.e., the project of justifying epistemic norms by appealing solely to the overall accuracy of the doxastic states they recommend. But these arguments are far from decisive. In this essay, we prove some (...) new results, which show that there is little hope for reconciling the rationality of credal imprecision with accuracy-centered epistemology. (shrink)

This paper addresses the ongoing debate over the relation between belief and credence. A proposal is made to reverse the currently predominant order of analysis, by taking belief as conceptually basic and credence as the phenomenon to be clarified. In brief, the proposal is to explicate an agent’s credence in a proposition P as the agent’s tendency toward believing P. Platitudinous as this reduction may seem, it runs counter to all of the major positions in the debate, including the Threshold (...) View, the Certainty View as conventionally understood, Dualism, Eliminativism, as well as Credence Primitivism. Section 1 gives an overview on the current state of the debate. Section 2 considers unsuccessful predecessors of the proposed belief-first approach to credence. Section 3 motivates and lays out the basics of a conceptual framework for thinking about doxastic states that characterizes such states in terms of two formally independent dimensions, one pertaining to the agent’s tendency toward believing P, the other to the level of resilience with which the agent manifests that tendency. Against this backdrop, it is argued in Sect. 4 that the present reduction satisfies a set of standard, theoretically neutral criteria of adequacy for theories of credence, at least once they are purged of a quite common conflation of tendency and resilience. Section 5 argues against all of the above competing accounts. (shrink)