Results for 'Forecasting'

221 found
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  1.  1
    Emotional Forecasting of Happiness.Hege Kristin Ringnes, Gry Stålsett, Harald Hegstad & Lars Johan Danbolt - forthcoming - Archive for the Psychology of Religion.
    _ Source: _Page Count 32 The aim of this study was to explore which group-based emotion regulation goals and strategies are offered in the group culture of Jehovah’s Witnesses. Based on interviews with 29 group-active JW s in Norway, a thematic analysis was conducted in which an overall pattern of cognition taking precedence over emotions was found. Due to end-time expectations and a long-term goal of eternal life in Paradise, future emotions were prioritized. The emotion regulation strategies identified among JW (...)
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  2.  1
    Emotional Forecasting of Happiness.Hege Kristin Ringnes, Gry Stålsett, Harald Hegstad & Lars Johan Danbolt - forthcoming - Archive for the Psychology of Religion.
    _ Source: _Page Count 32 The aim of this study was to explore which group-based emotion regulation goals and strategies are offered in the group culture of Jehovah’s Witnesses. Based on interviews with 29 group-active JW s in Norway, a thematic analysis was conducted in which an overall pattern of cognition taking precedence over emotions was found. Due to end-time expectations and a long-term goal of eternal life in Paradise, future emotions were prioritized. The emotion regulation strategies identified among JW (...)
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  3. Emotional Forecasting of Happiness.Hege Kristin Ringnes, Gry Stålsett, Harald Hegstad & Lars Johan Danbolt - forthcoming - New Content is Available for Archive for the Psychology of Religion.
    _ Source: _Page Count 32 The aim of this study was to explore which group-based emotion regulation goals and strategies are offered in the group culture of Jehovah’s Witnesses. Based on interviews with 29 group-active JW s in Norway, a thematic analysis was conducted in which an overall pattern of cognition taking precedence over emotions was found. Due to end-time expectations and a long-term goal of eternal life in Paradise, future emotions were prioritized. The emotion regulation strategies identified among JW (...)
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  4. Emotional Forecasting of Happiness.Hege Kristin Ringnes, Gry Stålsett, Harald Hegstad & Lars Johan Danbolt - forthcoming - Archive for the Psychology of Religion.
    _ Source: _Page Count 32 The aim of this study was to explore which group-based emotion regulation goals and strategies are offered in the group culture of Jehovah’s Witnesses. Based on interviews with 29 group-active JW s in Norway, a thematic analysis was conducted in which an overall pattern of cognition taking precedence over emotions was found. Due to end-time expectations and a long-term goal of eternal life in Paradise, future emotions were prioritized. The emotion regulation strategies identified among JW (...)
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  5.  18
    Retracted Article: Improving Case-Based Ethics Training: How Modeling Behaviors and Forecasting Influence Effectiveness.Lauren N. Harkrider, Alexandra E. MacDougall, Zhanna Bagdasarov, James F. Johnson, Michael D. Mumford, Shane Connelly & Lynn D. Devenport - 2014 - Science and Engineering Ethics 20 (1):299-299.
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  6. Scientific Forecasting and Human Needs: Trends, Methods, and Message: Proceedings of a Symposium Held in Tbilisi, Ussr, 6-11 December 1981. [REVIEW]Augusto Forti (ed.) - 1984 - Pergamon Press.
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  7. Methodology of Forecasting Complex Development Processes of the Scientific and Technological Revolution.Ota Sulc - 1977 - Centre for the Study of Science, Technology, and Develop[Ment], Council of Scientific and Industrial Research.
     
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  8.  5
    Improving Case-Based Ethics Training with Codes of Conduct and Forecasting Content.Lauren N. Harkrider, Chase E. Thiel, Zhanna Bagdasarov, Michael D. Mumford, James F. Johnson, Shane Connelly & Lynn D. Devenport - 2012 - Ethics and Behavior 22 (4):258 - 280.
    Although case-based training is popular for ethics education, little is known about how specific case content influences training effectiveness. Therefore, the effects of (a) codes of ethical conduct and (b) forecasting content were investigated. Results revealed richer cases, including both codes and forecasting content, led to increased knowledge acquisition, greater sensemaking strategy use, and better decision ethicality. With richer cases, a specific pattern emerged. Specifically, content describing codes alone was more effective when combined with short-term forecasts, whereas content (...)
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  9.  48
    Strategies in Forecasting Outcomes in Ethical Decision-Making: Identifying and Analyzing the Causes of the Problem.Michael D. Mumford, Chase E. Thiel, Jared J. Caughron, Xiaoqian Wang, Alison L. Antes & Cheryl K. Stenmark - 2010 - Ethics and Behavior 20 (2):110-127.
    This study examined the role of key causal analysis strategies in forecasting and ethical decision-making. Undergraduate participants took on the role of the key actor in several ethical problems and were asked to identify and analyze the causes, forecast potential outcomes, and make a decision about each problem. Time pressure and analytic mindset were manipulated while participants worked through these problems. The results indicated that forecast quality was associated with decision ethicality, and the identification of the critical causes of (...)
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  10.  6
    Forecasting in Light of Big Data.Hosni Hykel & Vulpiani Angelo - forthcoming - Philosophy and Technology:1-13.
    Predicting the future state of a system has always been a natural motivation for science and practical applications. Such a topic, beyond its obvious technical and societal relevance, is also interesting from a conceptual point of view. This owes to the fact that forecasting lends itself to two equally radical, yet opposite methodologies. A reductionist one, based on first principles, and the naïve-inductivist one, based only on data. This latter view has recently gained some attention in response to the (...)
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  11.  7
    Forecasting and Ethical Decision Making: What Matters?Cheryl Stenmark - 2013 - Ethics and Behavior 23 (6):445-462.
    This study examined how the number and types of consequences considered are related to forecasting and ethical decision making. Undergraduate participants took on the role of the key actor in several ethical problems and were asked to forecast potential outcomes and make a decision about each problem. Performance pressure was manipulated by ostensibly making rewards contingent on good problem-solving performance. The results indicated that forecast quality was associated with decision ethicality, and the identification of the critical consequences of the (...)
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  12.  16
    Social Networks and Private Spaces in Economic Forecasting.Robert Evans - 2007 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 38 (4):686-697.
    The outputs of economic forecasting—predictions for national economic indicators such as GDP, unemployment rates and inflation—are all highly visible. The production of these forecasts is a much more private affair, however, typically being thought of as the work of individual forecasters or forecast teams using their economic model to produce a forecast that is then made public. This conception over-emphasises the individual and the technical whilst silencing the broader social context through which economic forecasters develop the expertise that is (...)
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  13.  14
    Forecasting, Prediction and Precision: A Commentary.Jamie Morgan - 2012 - Economic Thought 1 (2).
    Forecasting involves an underlying conceptualization of probability. It is this that gives sense to the notion of precision in number that makes us think of economic forecasting as more than simply complicated guesswork. We think of it as well-founded statement, a science and not an art of numbers. However, this understanding is at odds with the nature of social reality and the attributes of the forecaster. We should think differently about how we both anticipate and make the future (...)
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  14.  37
    Use of Heuristics: Insights From Forecasting Research.Nigel Harvey - 2007 - Thinking and Reasoning 13 (1):5 – 24.
    Tversky and Kahneman (1974) originally discussed three main heuristics: availability, representativeness, and anchoring-and-adjustment. Research on judgemental forecasting suggests that the type of information on which forecasts are based is the primary factor determining the type of heuristic that people use to make their predictions. Specifically, availability is used when forecasts are based on information held in memory; representativeness is important when the value of one variable is forecast from explicit information about the value of another variable; and anchoring-and-adjustment is (...)
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  15.  9
    Methodological Issues in Forecasting: Insights From the Egregious Business Forecast Errors of Late 1930.Robert S. Goldfarb, H. O. Stekler & Joel David - 2005 - Journal of Economic Methodology 12 (4):517-542.
    This paper examines some economic forecasts made in late 1930 that were intended to predict economic activity in the United States in order to shed light on several methodological issues. We document that these forecasts were extremely optimistic, predicting that the recession in the US would soon end, and that 1931 would show a recovery. These forecasts displayed egregious errors, because 1931 witnessed the largest negative growth rate for the US economy in any year in the twentieth century. A specific (...)
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  16.  16
    Affective Forecasting and Its Implications for Medical Ethics.Rosamond Rhodes & James J. Strain - 2007 - Cambridge Quarterly of Healthcare Ethics 17 (1):54-65.
    Through a number of studies recently published in the psychology literature, T.D. Wilson, D.T. Gilbert, and others have demonstrated that our judgments about what our future mental states will be are contaminated by various distortions. Their studies distinguish a variety of different distortions, but they refer to them all with the generic term “affective forecasting.” The findings of their studies on normal volunteers are remarkably robust and, therefore, demonstrate that we are all vulnerable to the distortions of affective (...). a. (shrink)
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  17. Social Networks And Private Spaces In Economic Forecasting.Robert Evans - 2007 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 38 (4):686-697.
    The outputs of economic forecasting—predictions for national economic indicators such as GDP, unemployment rates and inflation—are all highly visible. The production of these forecasts is a much more private affair, however, typically being thought of as the work of individual forecasters or forecast teams using their economic model to produce a forecast that is then made public. This conception over-emphasises the individual and the technical whilst silencing the broader social context through which economic forecasters develop the expertise that is (...)
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  18. Epistemology of Technology Assessment: Collingridge, Forecasting Methodologies, and Technological Control.Cassandra L. Pinnick - 1996 - Philosophy in the Contemporary World 3 (1):14-18.
    This paper criticizes Coliingridge’s arguments against an epistemology of technological control. Collingridge claims that because prediction mechanisms are inadequate, his “dilemma of control” demonstrates that the sociopolitical impact of new technologies cannot be forecasted, and that, consequently, policy makers must concentrate their control measures on minimizing the costs required to alter entrenched technologies. I argue that Collingridge does not show on either horn that forecasting is impossible, and that his criticisms of forecasting methods are self-defeating for they undercut (...)
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  19. Forecasting of the Influence of Financial Institutions Loan Portfolio Change for the Economic Sectors of the Country.Laura Pupelyte & Daiva Jureviciene - 2013 - Creative and Knowledge Society 3 (1):1-16.
    Purpose of the article is to predict the interrelationship between the change of financial institutions loan portfolio and activities of the main economic sectors in Lithuania. Coherence between financial intermediation and economic growth cause a great interest of economists during the late decade. Prevailed opinion that banking sector is the reflection of economic growth and expansion and that its role - to intermediate in the saving and investing needs, reallocating funds between economic activities, was replaced by sentiment that strong and (...)
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  20. Affective Forecasting and Its Implications for Medical Ethics.Rosamond Rhodes & James Strain - 2008 - Cambridge Quarterly of Healthcare Ethics 17 (1):54-65.
    Through a number of studies recently published in the psychology literature, T.D. Wilson, D.T. Gilbert, and others have demonstrated that our judgments about what our future mental states will be are contaminated by various distortions. Their studies distinguish a variety of different distortions, but they refer to them all with the generic term “affective forecasting.” The findings of their studies on normal volunteers are remarkably robust and, therefore, demonstrate that we are all vulnerable to the distortions of affective (...). a. (shrink)
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  21.  1
    Day-Ahead Price Forecasting Based on Hybrid Prediction Model.Javad Olamaee, Mohsen Mohammadi, Alireza Noruzi & Seyed Mohammad Hassan Hosseini - 2016 - Complexity 21 (S2):156-164.
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  22.  5
    Examining the Effects of Incremental Case Presentation and Forecasting Outcomes on Case-Based Ethics Instruction.Alexandra E. MacDougall, Lauren N. Harkrider, Zhanna Bagdasarov, James F. Johnson, Chase E. Thiel, Juandre Peacock, Michael D. Mumford, Lynn D. Devenport & Shane Connelly - 2014 - Ethics and Behavior 24 (2):126-150.
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  23. Affective Forecasting and Self-Rated Symptoms of Depression, Anxiety, and Hypomania: Evidence for a Dysphoric Forecasting Bias.Michael Hoerger, Stuart W. Quirk, Benjamin P. Chapman & Paul R. Duberstein - 2012 - Cognition and Emotion 26 (6):1098-1106.
  24.  7
    Forecasting with Imprecise Probabilities.Teddy Seidenfeld, Mark J. Schervish & Joseph B. Kadane - unknown
    We review de Finetti’s two coherence criteria for determinate probabilities: coherence1defined in terms of previsions for a set of events that are undominated by the status quo – previsions immune to a sure-loss – and coherence2 defined in terms of forecasts for events undominated in Brier score by a rival forecast. We propose a criterion of IP-coherence2 based on a generalization of Brier score for IP-forecasts that uses 1-sided, lower and upper, probability forecasts. However, whereas Brier score is a strictly (...)
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  25.  8
    Should “Systems Thinkers” Accept the Limits on Political Forecasting or Push the Limits?Philip E. Tetlock, Michael C. Horowitz & Richard Herrmann - 2012 - Critical Review 24 (3):375-391.
    Historical analysis and policy making often require counterfactual thought experiments that isolate hypothesized causes from a vast array of historical possibilities. However, a core precept of Jervis's ?systems thinking? is that causes are so interconnected that the historian can only with great difficulty imagine causation by subtracting all variables but one. Prediction, according to Jervis, is even more problematic: The more sensitive an event is to initial conditions (e.g., butterfly effects), the harder it is to derive accurate forecasts. Nevertheless, if (...)
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  26. Stock-Market Forecasting as Cosmography.F. Mobio - 2000 - Diogenes 48 (190):43-57.
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  27.  4
    Age Differences in Affective Forecasting and Experienced Emotion Surrounding the 2008 US Presidential Election.Susanne Scheibe, Rui Mata & Laura L. Carstensen - 2011 - Cognition and Emotion 25 (6):1029-1044.
  28.  17
    Probabilistic Forecasting: Why Model Imperfection is a Poison Pill.Roman Frigg, Seamus Bradley, Reason L. Machete & Leonard A. Smith - unknown
    This volume is a serious attempt to open up the subject of European philosophy of science to real thought, and provide the structural basis for the interdisciplinary development of its specialist fields, but also to provoke reflection on the idea of ‘European philosophy of science’. This efforts should foster a contemporaneous reflection on what might be meant by philosophy of science in Europe and European philosophy of science, and how in fact awareness of it could assist philosophers interpret and motivate (...)
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  29.  31
    Social Vision: Functional Forecasting and the Integration of Compound Social Cues.Reginald B. Adams & Kestutis Kveraga - 2015 - Review of Philosophy and Psychology 6 (4):591-610.
    For decades the study of social perception was largely compartmentalized by type of social cue: race, gender, emotion, eye gaze, body language, facial expression etc. This was partly due to good scientific practice, and partly due to assumptions that each type of social cue was functionally distinct from others. Herein, we present a functional forecast approach to understanding compound social cue processing that emphasizes the importance of shared social affordances across various cues. We review the traditional theories of emotion and (...)
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  30. Reconsidering the Impact of Affective Forecasting.Nada Gligorov - 2009 - Cambridge Quarterly of Healthcare Ethics 18 (2):166.
  31.  11
    Affect Regulation and Affective Forecasting.George Loewenstein - 2007 - In James J. Gross (ed.), Handbook of Emotion Regulation. Guilford Press. pp. 180--203.
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  32.  42
    D-Separation, Forecasting, and Economic Science: A Conjecture. [REVIEW]David A. Bessler & Zijun Wang - 2012 - Theory and Decision 73 (2):295-314.
    The paper considers the conjecture that forecasts from preferred economic models or theories d-separate forecasts from less preferred models or theories from the Actual realization of the variable for which a scientific explanation is sought. D-separation provides a succinct notion to represent forecast dominance of one set of forecasts over another; it provides, as well, a criterion for model preference as a fundamental device for progress in economic science. We demonstrate these ideas with examples from three areas of economic modeling.
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  33.  25
    Forecasting Modelling by Means of the KPM Method.Vladimir Faifr, Fedor Gal, Martin Potucek & Milos Zeman - 1984 - World Futures 20 (1):105-133.
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  34.  28
    Long-Range Weather Forecasting.Hugh Duncan Grant - 1937 - Thought: A Journal of Philosophy 12 (2):265-282.
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  35.  73
    Affective Forecasting: Why Can't People Predict Their Emotions?Peter Ayton, Alice Pott & Najat Elwakili - 2007 - Thinking and Reasoning 13 (1):62 – 80.
    Two studies explore the frequently reported finding that affective forecasts are too extreme. In the first study, driving test candidates forecast the emotional consequences of failing. Test failers overestimated the duration of their disappointment. Greater previous experience of this emotional event did not lead to any greater accuracy of the forecasts, suggesting that learning about one's own emotions is difficult. Failers' self-assessed chances of passing were lower a week after the test than immediately prior to the test; this difference correlated (...)
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  36.  10
    Predicting the Future: An Introduction to the Theory of Forecasting.Nicholas Rescher - 1997 - State University of New York Press.
    Develops a general theory of prediction that encompasses its fundamental principles, methodology, and practice and gives an overview of its promises and problems.
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  37.  15
    Seweryn Żurawicki, Problemy Prognozowania Ekonomicznego (Problems of Economic Forecasting).Seweryn Żurawicki - 1975 - Dialectics and Humanism 2 (4):173-175.
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  38.  34
    Ethics and Advocacy in Forecasting for Public Policy.Martin Wachs - 1990 - Business and Professional Ethics Journal 9 (1/2):141-157.
  39.  1
    Forecasting Reservoir Performance by Mapping Seismic Emissions.Charles Sicking, Jan Vermilye & Ashley Yaner - forthcoming - Interpretation:1-29.
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  40.  19
    Dynamic Models as Tools for Forecasting and Planning: A Presentation and Some Methodological Aspects.Peter Gärdenfors - 1982 - Theory and Decision 14 (3):237-273.
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  41.  17
    Empathic Forecasting: How Do We Predict Other People's Feelings?Monique Mh Pollmann & Catrin Finkenauer - 2009 - Cognition and Emotion 23 (5):978-1001.
  42. Forecasting with Imprecise/Indeterminate Probabilities [IP] – Some Preliminary Findings.Teddy Seidenfeld, Mark Schervish & Jay Kadane - unknown
    Part 1 Background on de Finetti’s twin criteria of coherence: Coherence1: 2-sided previsions free from dominance through a Book. Coherence2: Forecasts free from dominance under Brier (squared error) score. Part 2 IP theory based on a scoring rule.
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  43. Gödel Incompleteness in Analysis, with an Application to the Forecasting Problem in the Social Sciences.Newton C. A. da Costa & FranciscoAntonio Doria - 1994 - Philosophia Naturalis 31 (1):1-24.
     
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  44. On Forecasting Validity and Finessing Reliability.J. Barnard Gilmore - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (1):148-149.
  45. Actor-Observer Differences in Judgmental Probability Forecasting of Control Response Efficacy.N. Harvey & P. Ayton - 1990 - Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society 28 (6):523-523.
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  46.  15
    Further Thoughts About Affective Forecasting Biases in Medicine: A Response to Nada Gligorov.Rosamond Rhodes & James J. Strain - 2009 - Cambridge Quarterly of Healthcare Ethics 18 (2):174.
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  47.  5
    Realistic Affective Forecasting: The Role of Personality.Michael Hoerger, Ben Chapman & Paul Duberstein - 2016 - Cognition and Emotion 30 (7).
  48.  5
    Genetic Counseling in Historical Perspective: Understanding Our Hereditary Past and Forecasting Our Genomic Future.Devon Stillwell - 2013 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 44 (4):618-622.
  49.  4
    The Epistemologies of Non-Forecasting Simulations, Part I: Industrial Dynamics and Management Pedagogy at MIT.William Thomas & Lambert Williams - 2009 - Science in Context 22 (2):245.
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  50.  3
    Forecasting Theory: Problems and Exemplars in the Twenty-First Century.Stanley R. Barrett - 1999 - In E. L. Cerroni-Long (ed.), Anthropological Theory in North America. Bergin & Garvey. pp. 255.
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