Results for 'Philip E. Tetlock'

1000+ found
Order:
  1. Thinking the Unthinkable: Sacred Values and Taboo Cognitions.Philip E. Tetlock - 2003 - Trends in Cognitive Sciences 7 (7):320-324.
  2.  19
    Social Functionalist Frameworks for Judgment and Choice: Intuitive Politicians, Theologians, and Prosecutors.Philip E. Tetlock - 2002 - Psychological Review 109 (3):451-471.
  3.  2
    Impression Management Versus Intrapsychic Explanations in Social Psychology: A Useful Dichotomy?Philip E. Tetlock & Antony S. Manstead - 1985 - Psychological Review 92 (1):59-77.
    No categories
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   62 citations  
  4. Attributions of Implicit Prejudice, or "Would Jesse Jackson 'Fail' the Implicit Association Test?".Hal R. Arkes & Philip E. Tetlock - 2004 - Psychological Inquiry 15 (4):257-78.
  5.  21
    Should “Systems Thinkers” Accept the Limits on Political Forecasting or Push the Limits?Philip E. Tetlock, Michael C. Horowitz & Richard Herrmann - 2012 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 24 (3):375-391.
    Historical analysis and policy making often require counterfactual thought experiments that isolate hypothesized causes from a vast array of historical possibilities. However, a core precept of Jervis's ?systems thinking? is that causes are so interconnected that the historian can only with great difficulty imagine causation by subtracting all variables but one. Prediction, according to Jervis, is even more problematic: The more sensitive an event is to initial conditions (e.g., butterfly effects), the harder it is to derive accurate forecasts. Nevertheless, if (...)
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   2 citations  
  6.  37
    Second Thoughts About Expert Political Judgment: Reply to the Symposium.Philip E. Tetlock - 2010 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 22 (4):467-488.
  7.  9
    The Implicit Prejudice Exchange: Islands of Consensus in a Sea of Controversy.Philip E. Tetlock & Hal R. Arkes - 2004 - Psychological Inquiry 15 (4).
  8.  36
    Gauging the Heuristic Value of Heuristics.Philip E. Tetlock - 2005 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 28 (4):562-563.
    Heuristics are necessary but far from sufficient explanations for moral judgment. This commentary stresses: (a) the need to complement cold, cognitive-economizing functionalist accounts with hot, value-expressive, social-identity-affirming accounts; and (b) the importance of conducting reflective-equilibrium thought and laboratory experiments that explore the permeability of the boundaries people place on the “thinkable.”.
    Direct download (4 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   2 citations  
  9.  9
    The Selfishness-Altruism Debate: In Defense of Agnosticism.Philip E. Tetlock - 1989 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 12 (4):723-724.
  10.  68
    Political Diversity Will Improve Social Psychological Science.José L. Duarte, Jarret T. Crawford, Charlotta Stern, Jonathan Haidt, Lee Jussim & Philip E. Tetlock - 2015 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 38:1-54.
    Psychologists have demonstrated the value of diversity – particularly diversity of viewpoints – for enhancing creativity, discovery, and problem solving. But one key type of viewpoint diversity is lacking in academic psychology in general and social psychology in particular: political diversity. This article reviews the available evidence and finds support for four claims: Academic psychology once had considerable political diversity, but has lost nearly all of it in the last 50 years. This lack of political diversity can undermine the validity (...)
    Direct download (4 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   29 citations  
  11.  15
    The Ever‐Shifting Psychological Foundations of Democratic Theory: Do Citizens Have the Right Stuff?Philip E. Tetlock - 1998 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 12 (4):545-561.
    Abstract Timur Kuran's Private Truths, Public Lies makes a compelling case that people often misrepresent their private preferences in response to real or imagined social pressures, that the relative power of competing interest groups to punish opinion deviance and reward conformity determines the patterns and pervasiveness of preference falsification, and that preference falsifi?cation helps explain such diverse outcomes as the persistence and sudden collapse of communism and the precarious persistence of racial preferences in the United States and of the caste (...)
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   1 citation  
  12.  31
    Debunking the Myth of Value-Neutral Virginity: Toward Truth in Scientific Advertising.David R. Mandel & Philip E. Tetlock - 2016 - Frontiers in Psychology 7.
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   1 citation  
  13. Some Thoughts About Thought Systems.Philip E. Tetlock - 1991 - In R. Wyer & T. Srull (eds.), The Content, Structure, and Operation of Thought Systems. Lawrence Erlbaum. pp. 4--197.
  14.  27
    The Consequences of Taking Consequentialism Seriously.Philip E. Tetlock - 1994 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 17 (1):31-32.
    Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  15. Theory- Versus Imagination-Driven Thinking About Historical Counterfactuals: Are We Prisoners of Our Preconceptions?Philip E. Tetlock & Erika Henik - 2005 - In David R. Mandel, Denis J. Hilton & Patrizia Catellani (eds.), The Psychology of Counterfactual Thinking. Routledge.
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   3 citations  
  16.  27
    It May Be Harder Than We Thought, but Political Diversity Will Improve Social Psychological Science.Jarret T. Crawford, José L. Duarte, Jonathan Haidt, Lee Jussim, Charlotta Stern & Philip E. Tetlock - 2015 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 38.
    No categories
    Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   2 citations  
  17.  56
    Cognitive Appraisals and Emotional Experience: Further Evidence.A. S. R. Manstead, Philip E. Tetlock & Tony Manstead - 1989 - Cognition and Emotion 3 (3):225-239.
  18.  10
    Predicting Behavior in Economic Games by Looking Through the Eyes of the Players.Barbara A. Mellers, Michael P. Haselhuhn, Philip E. Tetlock, José C. Silva & Alice M. Isen - 2010 - Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 139 (4):743-755.
  19.  21
    Perceptual Dehumanization of Faces is Activated by Norm Violations and Facilitates Norm Enforcement.Katrina M. Fincher & Philip E. Tetlock - 2016 - Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 145 (2):131-146.
  20.  11
    Correcting Judgment Correctives in National Security Intelligence.David R. Mandel & Philip E. Tetlock - 2018 - Frontiers in Psychology 9.
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  21.  10
    Tetlock and Counterfactuals: Saving Methodological Ambition From Empirical Findings.Ian S. Lustick - 2010 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 22 (4):427-447.
    In five works spanning a decade, Philip E. Tetlock's interest in counterfactuals has changed. He began with an optimistic desire to make social science more rigorous by identifying best practices in the absence of non-imagined controls for experimentation. Soon, however, he adopted a more pessimistic analysis of the cognitive and psychological barriers facing experts. This shift was brought on by an awareness that experts are not rational Bayesians who continually update their theories to keep up with new information; (...)
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   1 citation  
  22.  52
    The Moral Basis of Vegetarianism: Philip E. Devine.Philip E. Devine - 1978 - Philosophy 53 (206):481-505.
    If someone abstains from meat-eating for reasons of taste or personal economics, no moral or philosophical question arises. But when a vegetarian attempts to persuade others that they, too, should adopt his diet, then what he says requires philosophical attention. While a vegetarian might argue in any number of ways, this essay will be concerned only with the argument for a vegetarian diet resting on a moral objection to the rearing and killing of animals for the human table. The vegetarian, (...)
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   11 citations  
  23.  15
    Homicide Revisited: Philip E. Devine.Philip E. Devine - 1980 - Philosophy 55 (213):329-347.
    Jonathan Glover and I, while not in such deep disagreement about the ethics of killing as to make all communication impossible, still disagree enough to make sustained confrontation worthwhile. At minimum, such confrontation should make it clear what are the most fundamental issues at stake in ethical arguments about various kinds of killing.
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   1 citation  
  24.  5
    Does St Anselm Beg the Question?: Philip E. Devine.Philip E. Devine - 1975 - Philosophy 50 (193):271-281.
    The following objection to the ‘ontological’ argument of St Anselm has a continuing importance. The argument begs the question by introducing into the first premise the name ‘God’. In order for something to be truly talked about, to have properties truly attributed to it—it has been said—it must exist; a statement containing a vacuous name must either be false, meaningless, or lacking in truth-value, if it is not a misleading formulation to be explained by paraphrase into other terms. In any (...)
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   2 citations  
  25.  7
    When and Why Do Hedgehogs and Foxes Differ?Frank C. Keil - 2010 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 22 (4):415-426.
    Philip E. Tetlock's finding that "hedgehog" experts are worse predictors than "foxes" offers fertile ground for future research. Are experts as likely to exhibit hedgehog- or fox-like tendencies in areas that call for explanatory, diagnostic, and skill-based expertise-as they did when Tetlock called on experts to make predictions? Do particular domains of expertise curtail or encourage different styles of expertise? Can we trace these different styles to childhood? Finally, can we nudge hedgehogs to be more like foxes? (...)
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   2 citations  
  26.  59
    Creation and Evolution: PHILIP E. DEVINE.Philip E. Devine - 1996 - Religious Studies 32 (3):325-337.
    Despite the bad reputation of the legal profession, law remains king in America. A highly diverse society relies on the laws to maintain a working sense of the dignity and inviability of each individual. And a persistent element in contemporary debates is the fear that naturalistic theories of the human person will erode our belief that we have a dignity greater than that of other natural objects. Thus the endurance of the creation vs. evolution debate is due less to the (...)
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  27.  15
    Judging Judgment.Bruce Bueno de Mesquita - 2010 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 22 (4):355-388.
    Philip E. Tetlock and I agree that forecasting tools are best evaluated in peer-reviewed settings and in comparison not only to expert judgments, but also to alternative modeling strategies. Applying his suggested standards of assessment, however, certain forecasting models not only outperform expert judgments, but also have gone head-to-head with alternative models and outperformed them. This track record demonstrates the capability to make significant, reliable predictions of difficult, complex events. The record has unfolded, contrary to Tetlock's contention, (...)
    No categories
    Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   1 citation  
  28.  5
    The Religious Significance of the Ontological Argument: PHILIP E.DEVINE.Philip E. Devine - 1975 - Religious Studies 11 (1):97-116.
    It seems clear that the ontological argument can no longer be dismissed as a silly fallacy. The dogma of the impossibility of necessary existence is seriously threatened by the case of necessary existential truths in mathematics, and as for the claim that the ontological argument must beg the question, since by mentioning God in the premise his existence is presupposed, it is undermined by the fact that we often refer to things—Hamlet for instance— we do not for a moment think (...)
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  29.  46
    The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics (1964).Philip E. Converse - 2006 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 18 (1-3):1-74.
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   98 citations  
  30.  6
    Judging Judgment.Bruce de Mesquita - 2010 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 22 (4):355-388.
    Philip E. Tetlock and I agree that forecasting tools are best evaluated in peer-reviewed settings and in comparison not only to expert judgments, but also to alternative modeling strategies. Applying his suggested standards of assessment, however, certain forecasting models not only outperform expert judgments, but also have gone head-to-head with alternative models and outperformed them. This track record demonstrates the capability to make significant, reliable predictions of difficult, complex events. The record has unfolded, contrary to Tetlock's contention, (...)
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  31. Generous or Parsimonious Cognitive Architecture? Cognitive Neuroscience and Theory of Mind: Articles.Philip Gerrans & Valerie E. Stone - 2008 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 59 (2):121-141.
    Recent work in cognitive neuroscience on the child's Theory of Mind has pursued the idea that the ability to metarepresent mental states depends on a domain-specific cognitive subystem implemented in specific neural circuitry: a Theory of Mind Module. We argue that the interaction of several domain-general mechanisms and lower-level domain-specific mechanisms accounts for the flexibility and sophistication of behavior, which has been taken to be evidence for a domain-specific ToM module. This finding is of more general interest since it suggests (...)
    Direct download (13 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   6 citations  
  32.  6
    When And Why Do Hedgehogs And Foxes Differ?Frank Keil - 2010 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 22 (4):415-426.
    Philip E. Tetlock's finding that "hedgehog" experts are worse predictors than "foxes" offers fertile ground for future research. Are experts as likely to exhibit hedgehog- or fox-like tendencies in areas that call for explanatory, diagnostic, and skill-based expertise-as they did when Tetlock called on experts to make predictions? Do particular domains of expertise curtail or encourage different styles of expertise? Can we trace these different styles to childhood? Finally, can we nudge hedgehogs to be more like foxes? (...)
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  33.  10
    On Slippery Slopes.Philip E. Devine - 2018 - Philosophy 93 (3):375-393.
    No categories
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   2 citations  
  34.  10
    The Symbolic Worldview: Reply to Vera and Simon.Philip E. Agre - 1993 - Cognitive Science 17 (1):61-69.
    No categories
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   7 citations  
  35.  17
    The Ethics of Homicide.Ethical Issues Relating to Life & Death.Philip E. Devine & John Ladd - 1981 - Philosophical Review 90 (4):633-637.
    Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   3 citations  
  36.  14
    Democratic Theory and Electoral Reality.Philip E. Converse - 2006 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 18 (1-3):297-329.
    In response to the dozen essays published here, which relate my 1964 paper on ?The Nature of Belief Systems in the Mass Publics? to normative requirements of democratic theory, I note, inter alia, a major misinterpretation of my old argument, as well as needed revisions of that argument in the light of intervening data. Then I address the degree to which there may be some long?term secular change in the parameters that I originally laid out. In the final section, I (...)
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   6 citations  
  37.  8
    Revolutionary Semiotics. [REVIEW]Philip E. Lewis - 1974 - Diacritics 4 (3):28.
    No categories
    Direct download (2 more)  
    Translate
     
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   5 citations  
  38. Relativism, Nihilism, and God.Philip E. Devine - 1989
    No categories
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   4 citations  
  39.  1
    Natural Law Ethics.Philip E. Devine - 1999 - Greenwood Press.
    Presents a contemporary version of the natural law tradition as a valid approach to ethical problems.
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   2 citations  
  40.  5
    Modern Logic in the Service of Law.Philip E. Davis - 1981 - Ethics 91 (4):671-672.
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   4 citations  
  41.  43
    Kitcher, Philip., The Ethical Project.Philip E. Devine - 2013 - Review of Metaphysics 66 (3):579-581.
  42.  7
    Putting Political Experts To The Test.Zeljka Buturovic - 2010 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 22 (4):389-396.
    In his remarkably meticulous and even-handed 2005 book, Expert Political Judgment, Philip E. Tetlock establishes that the only thing we can count on in the political experts' predictions is that they will underperform-in some cases significantly-the predictions made by mechanical statistical procedures, including random chance. Experts have many uses and Tetlock does not claim that they have no value. However, Tetlock zeroes in on experts' important political role-as prognosticators. Tetlock does not attempt the impossible by (...)
    Direct download  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   3 citations  
  43.  36
    Computation and Embodied Agency.Philip E. Agre - 1995 - Informatica 19:527-35.
  44.  52
    The Principle of Least Action: Remarks on Some Passages in Mach’s “Mechanics”).Philip E. B. Jourdain - 1912 - The Monist 22 (2):285-304.
  45.  5
    Putting Political Experts to the Test.Zeljka Buturovic - 2010 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 22 (4):389-396.
    In his remarkably meticulous and even-handed 2005 book, Expert Political Judgment, Philip E. Tetlock establishes that the only thing we can count on in the political experts' predictions is that they will underperform-in some cases significantly-the predictions made by mechanical statistical procedures, including random chance. Experts have many uses and Tetlock does not claim that they have no value. However, Tetlock zeroes in on experts' important political role-as prognosticators. Tetlock does not attempt the impossible by (...)
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   3 citations  
  46.  23
    The Perfect Island, the Devil, and Existent Unicorns.Philip E. Devine - 1975 - American Philosophical Quarterly 12 (3):255 - 260.
    No categories
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   3 citations  
  47.  5
    Intergenerational Discontinuities in Nigeria.Philip E. Leis & Marida Hollos - 1995 - Ethos: Journal of the Society for Psychological Anthropology 23 (1):103-118.
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   2 citations  
  48.  9
    The Trouble with Experts.Paul J. Quirk - 2010 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 22 (4):449-465.
    In his justly celebrated Expert Political Judgment, Philip E. Tetlock evaluates the judgment of economic and political experts by rigorously testing their ability to make accurate predictions. He finds that ability profoundly limited, implying that expert judgment is virtually useless, if not worse. He concludes by proposing a project that would seek to improve experts' performance by holding them publicly accountable for their claims. But Tetlock's methods severely underestimate the value of expert opinion. Despite their notorious disagreements, (...)
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   2 citations  
  49.  5
    Alienation and Authenticity in Parkinson's Disease and Its Treatment.Philip E. Mosley, Wayne Hall, Cynthia Forlini & Adrian Carter - 2014 - American Journal of Bioethics Neuroscience 5 (4):54-56.
  50.  97
    Capital Punishment and the Sanctity of Life.Philip E. Devine - 2000 - Midwest Studies in Philosophy 24 (1):229–243.
    Direct download (6 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   2 citations  
1 — 50 / 1000