Assessing the implementation of various instruments and solutions in a healthcare system, we cannot limit ourselves to examining their impact on the fulfillment of the criteria of justice and equity alone. Another important social objective is to maximize social welfare under the conditions of the scarcity of resources. The aim of the article is to analyze the impact on social welfare of the implementation of private insurance into the existing system of public security, with a view to the following factors: (...) the reasons for restrictions in the public system, the assumed forms of the aggregation of individual utilities into the social welfare function, and the assumed image of society. (shrink)

We report the results of a dual-task study in which participants performed a tracking and typing task under various experimental conditions. An objective payoff function was used to provide explicit feedback on how participants should trade off performance between the tasks. Results show that participants’ dual-task interleaving strategy was sensitive to changes in the difficulty of the tracking task and resulted in differences in overall task performance. To test the hypothesis that people select strategies that maximize payoff, a Cognitively Bounded (...) Rational Analysis model was developed. This analysis evaluated a variety of dual-task interleaving strategies to identify the optimal strategy for maximizing payoff in each condition. The model predicts that the region of optimum performance is different between experimental conditions. The correspondence between human data and the prediction of the optimal strategy is found to be remarkably high across a number of performance measures. This suggests that participants were honing their behavior to maximize payoff. Limitations are discussed. (shrink)

One of the important measures of quality of education is the performance of students in academic settings. Nowadays, abundant data is stored in educational institutions about students which can help to discover insight on how students are learning and to improve their performance ahead of time using data mining techniques. In this paper, we developed a student performance prediction model that predicts the performance of high school students for the next semester for five courses. We modeled our prediction system (...) as a multi-label classification task and used support vector machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), K-nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Multi-layer perceptron (MLP) as base-classifiers to train our model. We further improved the performance of the prediction model using a state-of-the-art partitioning scheme to divide the label space into smaller spaces and used Label Powerset (LP) transformation method to transform each labelset into a multi-class classification task. The proposed model achieved better performance in terms of different evaluation metrics when compared to other multi-label learning tasks such as binary relevance and classifier chains. (shrink)

Progress in automatic control, particularly in optimizing and self‐adaptive controls, is used to establish models in order to connect three horizons: knowledge, human activities and automatic controls. The guiding operation in all these horizons is recognished as the evolution. In the horizon of automatic controls, the evolutions can be said closed, since they are completely defined. In the horizon of human activities, they can be said open, because their over all direction depends both on the constituents and on the partial (...) accomplishment. In the horizon of the acquisition of the knowledge, there appear to be both evolutions in closed and open form; the problem is therefore to know whether these evolutions are teleological or homeostatic. There does not seem to be a ready answer; it could however probably be accelerated by better knowing the concept of matching the analogy. (shrink)

Overpopulation is often identified as one of the key drivers of climate change. Further, it is often thought that the mechanism behind this is obvious: 'more people means more greenhouse gas emissions'. However, in light of the fact that climate change depends most closely on cumulative emissions rather than on emissions rates, the relationship between population size and climate change is more subtle than this. Reducing the size of instantaneous populations can fruitfully be thought of as spreading out a fixed (...) number of people more thinly over time, and (in light of the significance of cumulative emissions) it is not immediately clear whether or how such a 'spreading' would help with climate change. To bring the point into sharp relief, I first set out a simple model according to which population reduction would not lead to any climate-change-related improvement. I then critically examine the assumptions of the model. If population reduction would lead to a significant climate-change-related improvement, this must be because (i) population reduction would significantly reduce even cumulative emissions, and/or (ii) climate damages are, to a significant extent, driven by the pace of climate change, and not only the eventual extent of the change. (shrink)

We describe the structure, operation, and experience of the Massachusetts General Hospital ethics committee, formally called the Edwin H. Cassem Optimum Care Committee, from January 2007 through December 2013. Founded in 1974 as one of the nation’s first hospital ethics committees, this committee has primarily focused on the optimum use of life-sustaining treatments. We outline specific sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of consult patients during this period, demographic differences between the adult inpatient population and patients for whom the ethics (...) committee was consulted, and salient features of the consults themselves. We include three case studies that illustrate important consult themes during this period. Our findings expand knowledge about the structure and workings of hospital ethics committees and illustrate how one ethics committee has developed and utilized policies on end-of-life care. More generally, we model a sociological approach to the study of clinical ethics consultation that could be utilized to contextualize institutional practices over time. (shrink)

Many political theorists and philosophers use Condorcet's Jury Theorem to defend democracy. This paper illustrates an uncomfortable implication of Condorcet's Jury Theorem. Realistically, when the conditions of Condorcet’s Jury Theorem hold, even in very high stakes elections, having more than 100,000 citizens vote does no significant good in securing good political outcomes. On the Condorcet model, unless voters enjoy voting, or unless they produce some other value by voting, then the cost to most voters of voting exceeds the expected (...) epistemic benefits to the common good of their casting a vote. Anyone who is committed to democracy on the basis of the Jury Theorem ought also to hold that widespread voting is wasteful, at least unless she can provide some further justification of mass democratic participation. (shrink)

Dit artikel tracht de grondslagen te leggen voor een aannemelijke theorie van organisatie. Het zet uiteen, dat het vermogen van iedere bevolkingsgroep, de hulpmiddelen effectief aan te wenden, in de eerste plaats afhankelijk is van de voorschriften en regelingen, die zij aanneemt voor de contrôle van haar natuurlijke hulpbronnen en productiemiddelen en de distributie van inkomen. Deze regels en voorschriften vormen tezamen hetgeen een georganiseerd proces wordt genoemd. De voornaamste stelling van het artikel is deze, dat een organisatie een groeiend (...) model is van relaties tusschen volken en de materialen in hun omgeving. Er zijn bepaalde relatie-beginselen, die een organisatie tot een levend geheel, haar endogenetisch, maken, d.w.z. haar uit zichzelf de energie doen voortbrengen om haar eigen levensprocessen te onderhouden. Een schending van deze principes -- zoo zet de schrijver uiteen -- veroorzaakt een vermindering van de levensvatbaarheid der organisatie, zoodat de energie, die noodig is om haar geraamte bijeen te houden van buiten-af moet worden aangevuld, d.w.z. uitwendig moet zijn ten opzichte van haar eigen activiteiten. Het schema van zulk een organisatie wordt exogenetisch genoemd. Een aantal voorbeelden wordt gegeven, om deze stelling te ondersteunen en de principes worden met een aantal gevallen geïllustreerd. De stelling toont aan, dat het sociale organisme de tendentie heeft exogenetisch te worden, wanneer het er niet in slaagt, de eischen van den mensch behoorlijk met die van zijn technologie in overeenstemming te brengen. De basis van deze verhouding, zoo toont de schrijver aan, ligt in drie integratiepunten, namelijk: 1. Het punt, waarin de relaties van individuen en groepen tot de natuurlijke hulpbronnen zijn bepaald. 2. Het punt, waarin de relaties van individuen en groepen tot de productiemiddelen zijn bepaald. 3. Het punt, waarin de betrekkelijke rechten van kapitaal en arbeid ten opzichte van de geproduceerde goederen zijn bepaald. Het artikel eindigt met een voorgesteld schema van organisatie van de sociale en economische krachten, die samenkomen in deze punten. (shrink)

A model predictive control method based on recursive backpropagation neural network and genetic algorithm is proposed for a class of nonlinear systems with time delays and uncertainties. In the offline modeling stage, a multistep-ahead predictor with GA-RBP neural network is designed, where GA-BP neural network is used as a one-step prediction model and GA is employed to train the initial weights and bias of the BP neural network. The incorporation of GA into RBP can reduce the possibility of (...) the BP neural network falling into a local optimum instead of reaching global optimization. In the online optimizing stage, a multistep-ahead GA-RBP neural network predictor and an improved gradient descent method are proposed to efficiently solve the online optimization problem of nonlinear MPC by minimizing a modified quadratic criterion. The designed MPC strategy can avoid information loss while linearizing the controlled system and computing the Hessian matrix and its inverse matrix. Experimental results show that the proposed approach can reduce the computational burden and improve the performance of MPC for the solution of nonlinear controlled systems. (shrink)

The unreasonable shift point will cause a large shift impact, which will affect the engine fuel economy and the service life of the wet clutch. To decrease shift impact on agricultural tractors with HMCVT and find the best working point, the following methods are proposed in this paper: firstly, conducting all-factor method and response surface method to design and carry out bench test of shift impact; secondly, using the basic linear fitting, RSM, and stepwise regression analysis to establish comprehensive mathematical (...) models and selecting models with high prediction accuracy; thirdly, putting forward the method of determining the weight of variance to match parameters of three quality evaluation indexes with inconsistent correlation; finally, establishing the total shift quality evaluation index and obtaining the optimal shift working point. It is found that oil filling pressure has a significant effect on speed drop, while the engine speed has a significance on the dynamic load and sliding friction. To make the transmission section of the best quality, the oil pressure at this time is 1 MPa and the engine speed is 1040 r/min. The results show that the proposed method can determine the optimal shift point and provide a reference for developing the control strategy. (shrink)

The idea that simplicity matters in science is as old as science itself, with the much cited example of Ockham's Razor, 'entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem': entities are not to be multiplied beyond necessity. A problem with Ockham's razor is that nearly everybody seems to accept it, but few are able to define its exact meaning and to make it operational in a non-arbitrary way. Using a multidisciplinary perspective including philosophers, mathematicians, econometricians and economists, this 2002 monograph examines simplicity (...) by asking six questions: what is meant by simplicity? How is simplicity measured? Is there an optimum trade-off between simplicity and goodness-of-fit? What is the relation between simplicity and empirical modelling? What is the relation between simplicity and prediction? What is the connection between simplicity and convenience? The book concludes with reflections on simplicity by Nobel Laureates in Economics. (shrink)

Leibniz frequently argued that reasons are to be weighed against each other as in a pair of scales, as Professor Marcelo Dascal has shown in his article "The Balance of Reason." In this kind of weighing it is not necessary to reach demonstrative certainty – one need only judge whether the reasons weigh more on behalf of one or the other option However, a different kind of account about rational decision-making can be found in some of Leibniz's writings. In his (...) article "Was Leibniz's Deity an Akrates?" Professor Jaakko Hintikka has argued that Leibniz developed a new vectorial model for rational decisions which is better suited to complicated decisions, where values are complementary to each other. This model, related closely to his work in metaphysics and the philosophy of mind, is a heuristic device which helps in finding rational combinations - and in an ideal case an optimum - between plural inclinations to the good. I shall argue that Leibniz applies more or less implicitly both of these models in his practical rationality. In simple situations he applied the pair of scales model and in more complicated situations he applied the vectorial model. (shrink)

The idea that simplicity matters in science is as old as science itself, with the much cited example of Ockham's Razor, 'entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessitatem': entities are not to be multiplied beyond necessity. A problem with Ockham's razor is that nearly everybody seems to accept it, but few are able to define its exact meaning and to make it operational in a non-arbitrary way. Using a multidisciplinary perspective including philosophers, mathematicians, econometricians and economists, this 2002 monograph examines simplicity (...) by asking six questions: what is meant by simplicity? How is simplicity measured? Is there an optimum trade-off between simplicity and goodness-of-fit? What is the relation between simplicity and empirical modelling? What is the relation between simplicity and prediction? What is the connection between simplicity and convenience? The book concludes with reflections on simplicity by Nobel Laureates in Economics. (shrink)

Celem artykułu jest skonstruowanie pewnego eksperymentu myślowego polegającego na zastosowaniu koncepcji neo-monadyzmu Gabriela Tarde’a do przemyślenia podstaw liberalnej oikodycei. Przez liberalną oikodyceę rozumiem koncepcję ładu społecznego opartą o idee racjonalnej, autonomicznej jednostki działającej w warunkach wymiany ekonomicznej. Zaproponowana przez Tardea rekapitulacja leibnizjańskiej koncepcji monadyzmu w świetle współczesnej mu wiedzy i zastosowanie jej do świata społecznego pozwala na stwierdzenie, że taki model podmiotowości jest niewystarczający do wytłumaczenia wielu - z pozoru nieracjonalnych - zjawisk jak ruchy populistyczne czy spekulacje (...) finansowe, charakterystycznych dla ekonomii politycznej XXI wieku. (shrink)

In the evaluation of teaching quality, aiming at the shortcomings of slow convergence of BP neural network and easy to fall into local optimum, an online teaching quality evaluation model based on analytic hierarchy process and particle swarm optimization BP neural network is proposed. Firstly, an online teaching quality evaluation system was established by using the analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of each subsystem and each index in the online teaching quality evaluation system and then combined (...) with actual experience, the risk value of each index was constructed according to safety regulations. The regression model is established through BP neural network, and the weight and threshold of the model are optimized by the particle swarm algorithm. Based on the online teaching quality evaluation model of BP neural network, the parameters of the model are constantly adjusted, the appropriate function is selected, and the particle swarm algorithm which is used in the training and learning process of the neural network is optimized. The scientificity of the questionnaire was verified by reliability and validity test. According to the scoring results and combined with the weight coefficient of each indicator in the online course quality evaluation index system, the key factors affecting the quality of online courses were obtained. Based on the survey data, descriptive statistics, analysis of variance, and Pearson’s correlation coefficient method are used to verify the research hypothesis and obtain valuable empirical results. By comparing the model with the standard BP model, the results show that the accuracy of the PSO-BP model is higher than that of the standard BP model and PSO-BP effectively overcomes the shortcomings of the BP neural network. (shrink)

Smart lighting systems utilize advanced data, control, and communication technologies and allow users to control lights in new ways. However, achieving user comfort, which should be the focus of smart lighting research, is challenging. One cause is the passive infrared sensor that inaccurately detects human presence to control artificial lighting. We propose a novel classification-integrated moving average model method to solve the problem. The moving average increases the Pearson correlation coefficient of motion sensor features to human presence. The classification (...) model is for a smart lighting intelligent control based on these features. Several classification models are proposed and compared, namely, k-nearest neighbor, support vector machine, decision tree, näive Bayes, and ensemble voting. We build an Internet of things system to collect movement data. It consists of a PIR sensor, a NodeMCU microcontroller, a Raspberry Pi-based platform, a relay, and LED lighting. With a sampling rate of 10 seconds and a collection period of 7 days, the system achieved 56852 data records. In the PC test, movement data from the PIR sensor has a correlation coefficient of 0.36 to attendance, while the MA correlation to attendance can reach 0.56. In an exhaustive search of an optimum classification model, KNN has the best and the most robust performance, with an accuracy of 99.8%. It is more accurate than direct light control decisions based on motion sensors, which are 67.6%. Our proposed method can increase the correlation value of movement features on attendance. At the same time, an accurate and robust KNN classification model is applicable for human presence-based smart lighting control. (shrink)

In presence of predator population, the prey population may significantly change their behavior. Fear for predator population enhances the survival probability of prey population, and it can greatly reduce the reproduction of prey population. In this study, we propose a predator-prey fishery model introducing the cost of fear into prey reproduction with Holling type-II functional response and prey-dependent harvesting and investigate the global dynamics of the proposed model. For the system without harvest, it is shown that the level (...) of fear may alter the stability of the positive equilibrium, and an expression of fear critical level is characterized. For the harvest system, the existence of the semitrivial order-1 periodic solution and positive order- q periodic solution is discussed by the construction of a Poincaré map on the phase set, and the threshold conditions are given, which can not only transform state-dependent harvesting into a cycle one but also provide a possibility to determine the harvest frequency. In addition, to ensure a certain robustness of the adopted harvest policy, the threshold condition for the stability of the order- q periodic solution is given. Meanwhile, to achieve a good economic profit, an optimization problem is formulated and the optimum harvest level is obtained. Mathematical findings have been validated in numerical simulation by MATLAB. Different effects of different harvest levels and different fear levels have been demonstrated by depicting figures in numerical simulation using MATLAB. (shrink)

Appeals to judicial intuition have increased as a result of open norms, a high workload and a greater variety of values. This calls for a critical theory of judicial intuition. Not much has happened in this field of research in the Netherlands since the paradigmatic work of professor Paul Scholten . Scholten decisively overcame the notion of subsumption, emphasizing the individual responsibility of judges in adjudication. Judicial activity is not only a matter of subsuming cases under statutes, but also of (...) carefully qualifying the case and the selecting the appropriate statute. This hermeneutical activity is externally bound by law, statute, tradition, constitutionality et cetera, and internally by the judge’s conscience, or the judge’s ‘intuition’. The final decision should integrate all these aspects. His notion of intuition, albeit praiseworthy, is unclear in some respects: Why is it irrational in nature? Can it be verified? May it lead to arbitrariness towards the parties involved? Does it allow for a quasi-religious derivation for judicial activity? An apposite complement to Scholten can be found in Aristotle’s Nicomachean Ethics. According to Aristotle, the rational process of decision-making is imbedded in intuition, which is both the ‘first term’ and the ‘last term’ of phronetical activity. Intuition is the ‘first term’in the sense that the judge has received moral formation through knowledge of laws, education in the family and by teachers, experience and habituation. As a result of this formation, the judge is spontaneously disposed to envisage specific cases. There is thus a spontaneous and hermeneutical relation between the judge’s general knowledge and the legal qualification of the case at hand. The ‘rational’ process of judging then aims to find the ‘middle,’ the decision that optimally meets the requirements of the concrete situation, the happiness of the polis, and the judge’s knowledge of law and ethics. To this effect, the judge will deploy some elements of his intuition and reject others. The hermeneutical relation between general knowledge and the specific case is thus repeated time and time again in order to reach an optimum. The final judgment of the judge is an act that also rests on intuition. An intuitive moment lies between the decision and the act. The decision functions as intuitive foreknowledge by means of which the judge views the situation anew. If the decision optimally meets the requirements of the situation, the judge will move to act, write and deliver his judgment. As such, intuition is also the ‘last term’ of the judge’s phronetical activity. (shrink)

" In Imagination and the Meaningful Brain, psychoanalyst Arnold Modell claims that subjective human experience must be included in any scientific...

Abstract.Since the gene splicing debates of the 1980s, the public has been exposed to an ongoing sequence of genetic and reproductive technologies. Many issue areas have outcomes that lose track of people's inner values or engender opposing religious viewpoints defying final resolution. This essay relocates the discussion of what is an acceptable application from the individual to the societal level, examining technologies that stand to address large numbers of people and thus call for policy resolution, rather than individual fiat, in (...) their application. A major source of guidance is the “Genetic Frontiers” series of professional dialogues and conferences held by the National Conference for Community and Justice from 2002 to 2004. Genetic testing, human gene therapy, genetic engineering of plants and animals, and stem cell technology are examined. While differences in perspective on the beginning of life persist, a stepwise approach to the examination of genetic testing reveals areas of general agreement. Stewardship of life, human co‐creativity with the divine, and social justice help define the bounds of application of genetic engineering and therapy; compassionate care plays a major role in establishing stem cell policy. Active, sustained dialogue is a useful resource for enabling sharing of religious values and crystallization of policies. (shrink)

Aristotle is oftentimes viewed through a strictly philosophical lens as heir to Plato and has having introduced logical rigor where an emphasis on the theory of Forms formerly prevailed. It must be appreciated that Aristotle was the son of a physician, and that his inculcation of the thought of other Greek philosophers addressing health and the natural elements led to an extremely broad set of biologically- and medically-related writings. As this article proposes, Aristotle deepened the fourfold theory of the elements (...) with anatomic and physiologic observations. In books like History of Animals, Parts of Animals, and the lost Anatomai, he actively dissected organisms and recorded his findings. The corpus of medically-related literature Aristotle developed had a direct influence on subsequent Greek thinkers, including Galen, and on Medieval Islamic and modern Western practitioners such as William Harvey. Aristotle's ideas continue to influence modern medical thinkers in Europe and America through both his interpretation by European philosophers gaining the attention of medical humanists, and his writings' enduring impact on medical researchers balancing scientific with more personalistic approaches to medicine. (shrink)

The estrangement between genetic scientists and theologians originating in the 1960s is reflected in novel combinations of human thought (subject) and genes (investigational object), paralleling each other through the universal process known in chaos theory as self-similarity. The clash and recombination of genes and knowledge captures what Philip Hefner refers to as irony, one of four voices he suggests transmit the knowledge and arguments of the religion-and-science debate. When viewed along a tangent connecting irony to leadership, journal dissemination, and the (...) activities of the "public intellectual" and the public at large, the sequence of voices is shown to resemble the passage of genetic information from DNA to mRNA, tRNA, and protein, and from cell nucleus to surrounding environment. In this light, Hefner's inquiry into the voices of Zygon is bound up with the very subject matter Zygon covers. (shrink)

Coherence and correspondence are classical contenders as theories of truth. In this paper we examine them instead as interacting factors in the dynamics of belief across epistemic networks. We construct an agent-based model of network contact in which agents are characterized not in terms of single beliefs but in terms of internal belief suites. Individuals update elements of their belief suites on input from other agents in order both to maximize internal belief coherence and to incorporate ‘trickled in’ elements (...) of truth as correspondence. Results, though often intuitive, prove more complex than in simpler models (Hegselmann & Krause 2002, 2006; Grim, Singer, Reade & Fisher 2015). The optimistic finding is that pressures toward internal coherence can exploit and expand on small elements of truth as correspondence is introduced into epistemic networks. Less optimistic results show that pressures for coherence can also work directly against the incorporation of truth, particularly when coherence is established first and new data is introduced later. (shrink)

This paper outlines the demographic characteristics of the Baiga tribe, one of the most primitive of the aboriginal tribal groups of Central India. The Baiga population has grown steadily since the first anthropological study of the tribe in the 1930s. Age at menarche, age at marriage, breast-feeding, and time interval between marriage and first conception are natural. There are more females than males. Sub-tribe endogamy is common; consanguineous marriage is favoured (34% of marriages are between first cousins) and marital distance (...) is low (mean 7·1 km). Though the mean menarcheal age is high (15·2 years), mean age at first marriage is low (16·6 years), giving a long reproductive period. (shrink)