Switch to: References

Citations of:

Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

Cambridge University Press (1982)

Add citations

You must login to add citations.
  1. Between Turing and quantum mechanics there is body to be found.Francisco J. Varela - 1990 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 13 (4):687-688.
  • The Process of Ethical Decision-Making: Experts vs Novices.Thomas Van Valey, David Hartmann, Wayne Fuqua, Andrew Evans, Amy Day Ing, Amanda Meyer, Karolina Staros & Chris Walmsley - 2015 - Journal of Academic Ethics 13 (1):45-60.
    As one approach to examining the way ethical decisions are made, we asked experts and novices to review a set of scenarios that depict some important ethical tensions in research. The method employed was “protocol analysis,” a talk-aloud technique pioneered by cognitive scientists for the analysis of expert performance. The participants were asked to verbalize their normally unexpressed thought processes as they responded to the scenarios, and to make recommendations for courses of action. We found that experts spent more time (...)
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   4 citations  
  • The political philosophy of whistleblowing.Wim Vandekerckhove - 2022 - Philosophy of Management 21 (3):337-344.
    This article uses two recent books on whistleblowing authored by political philosophers, to suggest that what political philosophy can contribute to the whistleblowing debate are notions of public interest that can help to enable and delineate responsibilities and protection of different actors. Whilst it is acknowledged that these recent works on whistleblowing offer a welcome articulation of the business ethics scholarship into that of political philosophy, it fails to deliver on its potential contribution. The argumentation proceeds along three objections, (1) (...)
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   1 citation  
  • Toward a Computational Psycholinguistics of Reference Production.Kees van Deemter, Albert Gatt, Roger P. G. van Gompel & Emiel Krahmer - 2012 - Topics in Cognitive Science 4 (2):166-183.
    This article introduces the topic ‘‘Production of Referring Expressions: Bridging the Gap between Computational and Empirical Approaches to Reference’’ of the journal Topics in Cognitive Science. We argue that computational and psycholinguistic approaches to reference production can benefit from closer interaction, and that this is likely to result in the construction of algorithms that differ markedly from the ones currently known in the computational literature. We focus particularly on determinism, the feature of existing algorithms that is perhaps most clearly at (...)
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   12 citations  
  • Bridging psychology and game theory yields interdependence theory.Paul A. M. Van Lange & Marcello Gallucci - 2003 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 26 (2):177-178.
    This commentary focuses on the parts of psychological game theory dealing with preference, as illustrated by team reasoning, and supports the conclusion that these theoretical notions do not contribute above and beyond existing theory in understanding social interaction. In particular, psychology and games are already bridged by a comprehensive, formal, and inherently psychological theory, interdependence theory (Kelley & Thibaut 1978; Kelley et al. 2003), which has been demonstrated to account for a wide variety of social interaction phenomena.
    Direct download (8 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   1 citation  
  • What do people think they're doing? Action identification and human behavior.Robin R. Vallacher & Daniel M. Wegner - 1987 - Psychological Review 94 (1):3-15.
  • Is Economic Rationality in the Head?Kevin Vallier - 2015 - Minds and Machines 25 (4):339-360.
    Many economic theorists hold that social institutions can lead otherwise irrational agents to approximate the predictions of traditional rational choice theory. But there is little consensus on how institutions do so. I defend an economic internalist account of the institution-actor relationship by explaining economic rationality as a feature of individuals whose decision-making is aided by institutional structures. This approach, known as the subjective transaction costs theory, represents apparently irrational behavior as a rational response to high subjective transaction costs of thinking (...)
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  • Psi, statistics, and society.Jessica Utts - 1987 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 10 (4):615.
  • Freedom for the Future: The Independent Value of Freedom in Light of Uncertainty.S. Phineas Upham - 2009 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 21 (4):437-446.
    ABSTRACT Both classical and modern liberals tend to treat freedom of choice as if it is intrinsically valuable—regardless of what is chosen. They fear that treating freedom as, instead, instrumental only to good choices might open the door to paternalism if a polity were to decide that people were making bad choices. A middle course would be to treat freedom as independently valuable. On the one hand, the independent value of freedom does not treat all choices as good as long (...)
    Direct download (4 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  • Conscious and unconscious representation of aspectual shape in cognitive science.Geoffrey Underwood - 1990 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 13 (4):628-629.
  • Unintended thought and nonconscious inferences exist.James S. Uleman & Jennifer K. Uleman - 1990 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 13 (4):627-628.
  • Chairman's action: The importance of executive decisions in peer review.Peter Tyrer - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (1):164-165.
  • Psychology and the foundations of rational belief.Ryan D. Tweney, Michael E. Doherty & Clifford R. Mynatt - 1983 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 6 (2):262-263.
  • L. J. Cohen, again: On the evaluation of inductive intuitions.Amos Tversky - 1981 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 4 (3):354-356.
  • Perception of Interannual Covariation and Strategies for Risk Reduction among Mikea of Madagascar.Bram Tucker - 2007 - Human Nature 18 (2):162-180.
    This paper begins with the hypothesis that Mikea, participants in a mixed foraging–fishing–farming–herding economy of southwestern Madagascar, may attempt to reduce interannual variance in food supply caused by unpredictable rainfall by following a simple rule-of-thumb: Practice an even mix of activities that covary positively with rainfall and activities that covary negatively with rainfall. Results from a historical matrix participatory exercise confirm that Mikea perceive that foraging and farming outcomes covary positively or negatively with rainfall. This paper further considers whether Mikea (...)
    Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   2 citations  
  • Applying Behavioral Ecology and Behavioral Economics to Conservation and Development Planning: An Example from the Mikea Forest, Madagascar. [REVIEW]Bram Tucker - 2007 - Human Nature 18 (3):190-208.
    Governments and non-govermental organizations (NGOs) that plan projects to conserve the environment and alleviate poverty often attempt to modify rural livelihoods by halting activities they judge to be destructive or inefficient and encouraging alternatives. Project planners typically do so without understanding how rural people themselves judge the value of their activities. When the alternatives planners recommend do not replace the value of banned activities, alternatives are unlikely to be adopted, and local people will refuse to participate. Human behavioral ecology and (...)
    Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   1 citation  
  • Exactly which emperor is Penrose talking about?John K. Tsotsos - 1990 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 13 (4):686-687.
  • Computational resources do constrain behavior.John K. Tsotsos - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (3):506-507.
  • Anomaly versus artifact, or anomalous artifact?Marcello Truzzi - 1987 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 10 (4):614.
  • Understanding Schizophrenic Delusion: The Role of Some Primary Alterations of Subjective Experience. [REVIEW]Sarah Troubé - 2012 - Medicine Studies 3 (4):233-248.
    This paper explores the possibility of understanding schizophrenic delusion through the role of a primary alteration of subjective experience. Two approaches are contrasted: the first defines schizophrenic delusion as a primary symptom resisting any attempt to understand, whereas the second describes delusion as a secondary symptom, to be understood as a rational reaction of the self. The paper discusses the possibility of applying this second approach to schizophrenic delusion. This leads us to raise the issue of the specificity of psychotic (...)
    Direct download (6 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  • Democracy and scientific expertise: illusions of political and epistemic inclusion.J. D. Trout - 2013 - Synthese 190 (7):1267-1291.
    Realizing the ideal of democracy requires political inclusion for citizens. A legitimate democracy must give citizens the opportunity to express their attitudes about the relative attractions of different policies, and access to political mechanisms through which they can be counted and heard. Actual governance often aims not at accurate belief, but at nonepistemic factors like achieving and maintaining institutional stability, creating the feeling of government legitimacy among citizens, or managing access to influence on policy decision-making. I examine the traditional relationship (...)
    Direct download (8 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   2 citations  
  • An Evolutionary Perspective on Information Processing.Peter C. Trimmer & Alasdair I. Houston - 2014 - Topics in Cognitive Science 6 (2):312-330.
    Behavioral ecologists often assume that natural selection will produce organisms that make optimal decisions. In the context of information processing, this means that the behavior of animals will be consistent with models from fields such as signal detection theory and Bayesian decision theory. We discuss work that applies such models to animal behavior and use the case of Bayesian updating to make the distinction between a description of behavior at the level of optimal decisions and a mechanistic account of how (...)
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   1 citation  
  • Toward an Integrated Neuroscience of Morality: The Contribution of Neuroeconomics to Moral Cognition.Trevor Kvaran & Alan G. Sanfey - 2010 - Topics in Cognitive Science 2 (3):579-595.
    Interest in the neural processes underlying decision making has led to a flurry of recent research in the fields of both moral psychology and neuroeconomics. In this paper, we first review some important findings from both disciplines, and then argue that the two fields can mutually benefit each other. A more explicit recognition of the role of values and norms will likely lead to more accurate models of decision making for neuroeconomists, whereas the tasks, insights into neural mechanisms, and mathematical (...)
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   1 citation  
  • The human being as a bumbling optimalist: A psychologist's viewpoint.Masanao Toda - 1991 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 14 (2):235-235.
  • Building the Theory of Ecological Rationality.Peter M. Todd & Henry Brighton - 2016 - Minds and Machines 26 (1-2):9-30.
    While theories of rationality and decision making typically adopt either a single-powertool perspective or a bag-of-tricks mentality, the research program of ecological rationality bridges these with a theoretically-driven account of when different heuristic decision mechanisms will work well. Here we described two ways to study how heuristics match their ecological setting: The bottom-up approach starts with psychologically plausible building blocks that are combined to create simple heuristics that fit specific environments. The top-down approach starts from the statistical problem facing the (...)
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   15 citations  
  • The psi controversy as a crystallization of the conflict between the mechanistic and the transcendental worldviews.Jerome J. Tobacyk - 1987 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 10 (4):613.
  • The Global Moral Compass for Business Leaders.Lindsay J. Thompson - 2010 - Journal of Business Ethics 93 (S1):15 - 32.
    Globalization, with its undisputed benefits, also presents complex moral challenges that business leaders cannot ignore. Some of this moral complexity is attributable to the scope and nature of specific issues like climate change, intellectual property rights, economic inequity, and human rights. More difficult aspects of moral complexity are the structure and dynamics of human moral judgment and the amplified universe of global stakeholders with competing value claims and value systems whose interests must be considered and often included in the decision-making (...)
    Direct download (4 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   5 citations  
  • The Art of the Unseen: Three challenges for Racial Profiling.Frej Klem Thomsen - 2011 - The Journal of Ethics 15 (1-2):89 - 117.
    This article analyses the moral status of racial profiling from a consequentialist perspective and argues that, contrary to what proponents of racial profiling might assume, there is a prima facie case against racial profiling on consequentialist grounds. To do so it establishes general definitions of police practices and profiling, sketches out the costs and benefits involved in racial profiling in particular and presents three challenges. The foundation challenge suggests that the shifting of burdens onto marginalized minorities may, even when profiling (...)
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   4 citations  
  • Science policy and moral purity: The case of animal biotechnology.Paul B. Thompson - 1997 - Agriculture and Human Values 14 (1):11-27.
    Public controversy over animalbiotechnology is analyzed as a case that illustratestwo broad theoretical approaches for linking science,political or ethical theory, and public policy. Moralpurification proceeds by isolating the social,environmental, animal, and human health impacts ofbiotechnology from each other in terms of discretecategories of moral significance. Each of thesecategories can also be isolated from the sense inwhich biotechnology raises religious or metaphysicalissues. Moral purification yields a comprehensive andsystematic account of normative issues raised bycontroversial science. Hybridization proceeds bytaking concern for all these (...)
    Direct download (4 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   7 citations  
  • Leader Ethical Decision-Making in Organizations: Strategies for Sensemaking. [REVIEW]Chase E. Thiel, Zhanna Bagdasarov, Lauren Harkrider, James F. Johnson & Michael D. Mumford - 2012 - Journal of Business Ethics 107 (1):49-64.
    Organizational leaders face environmental challenges and pressures that put them under ethical risk. Navigating this ethical risk is demanding given the dynamics of contemporary organizations. Traditional models of ethical decision-making (EDM) are an inadequate framework for understanding how leaders respond to ethical dilemmas under conditions of uncertainty and equivocality. Sensemaking models more accurately illustrate leader EDM and account for individual, social, and environmental constraints. Using the sensemaking approach as a foundation, previous EDM models are revised and extended to comprise a (...)
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   33 citations  
  • What is Doubt and When is it Reasonable?Paul Thagard - 2004 - Canadian Journal of Philosophy 34 (sup1):391-406.
    No categories
    Direct download (4 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   7 citations  
  • Why wasn't O.J. convicted? Emotional coherence in legal inference.Paul Thagard - 2003 - Cognition and Emotion 17 (3):361-383.
    This paper evaluates four competing psychological explanations for why the jury in the O.J. Simpson murder trial reached the verdict they did: explanatory coherence, Bayesian probability theory, wishful thinking, and emotional coherence. It describes computational models that provide detailed simulations of juror reasoning for explanatory coherence, Bayesian networks, and emotional coherence, and argues that the latter account provides the most plausible explanation of the jury's decision.
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   22 citations  
  • Ulcers and bacteria I: discovery and acceptance.Paul Thagard - 1998 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part C: Studies in History and Philosophy of Biological and Biomedical Sciences 29 (1):107-136.
    No categories
    Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   22 citations  
  • Ulcers and bacteria I: discovery and acceptance.Paul Thagard - 1998 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part C: Studies in History and Philosophy of Biological and Biomedical Sciences 29 (1):107-136.
    In 1983, Dr. J. Robin Warren and Dr. Barry Marshall reported finding a new kind of bacteria in the stomachs of people with gastritis. Warren and Marshall were soon led to the hypothesis that peptic ulcers are generally caused, not by excess acidity or stress, but by a bacterial infection. Initially, this hypothesis was viewed as preposterous, and it is still somewhat controversial. In 1994, however, a U. S. National Institutes of Health Consensus Development Panel concluded that infection appears to (...)
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   25 citations  
  • Testimony, Credibility, and Explanatory Coherence.Paul Thagard - 2005 - Erkenntnis 63 (3):295-316.
    This paper develops a descriptive and normative account of how people respond to testimony. It postulates a default pathway in which people more or less automatically respond to a claim by accepting it, as long as the claim made is consistent with their beliefs and the source is credible. Otherwise, people enter a reflective pathway in which they evaluate the claim based on its explanatory coherence with everything else they believe. Computer simulations show how explanatory coherence can be maximized in (...)
    Direct download (5 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   22 citations  
  • The consequences of taking consequentialism seriously.Philip E. Tetlock - 1994 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 17 (1):31-32.
    Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  • Theory-based Bayesian models of inductive learning and reasoning.Joshua B. Tenenbaum, Thomas L. Griffiths & Charles Kemp - 2006 - Trends in Cognitive Sciences 10 (7):309-318.
  • Judging the Probability of Hypotheses Versus the Impact of Evidence: Which Form of Inductive Inference Is More Accurate and Time‐Consistent?Katya Tentori, Nick Chater & Vincenzo Crupi - 2016 - Cognitive Science 40 (3):758-778.
    Inductive reasoning requires exploiting links between evidence and hypotheses. This can be done focusing either on the posterior probability of the hypothesis when updated on the new evidence or on the impact of the new evidence on the credibility of the hypothesis. But are these two cognitive representations equally reliable? This study investigates this question by comparing probability and impact judgments on the same experimental materials. The results indicate that impact judgments are more consistent in time and more accurate than (...)
    No categories
    Direct download (4 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   7 citations  
  • How the conjunction fallacy is tied to probabilistic confirmation: Some remarks on Schupbach (2009).Katya Tentori & Vincenzo Crupi - 2012 - Synthese 184 (1):3-12.
    Crupi et al. (Think Reason 14:182–199, 2008) have recently advocated and partially worked out an account of the conjunction fallacy phenomenon based on the Bayesian notion of confirmation. In response, Schupbach (2009) presented a critical discussion as following from some novel experimental results. After providing a brief restatement and clarification of the meaning and scope of our original proposal, we will outline Schupbach’s results and discuss his interpretation thereof arguing that they do not actually undermine our point of view if (...)
    Direct download (6 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   9 citations  
  • Surprises: low probabilities or high contrasts?Karl Halvor Teigen & Gideon Keren - 2003 - Cognition 87 (2):55-71.
  • Actions, inactions and the temporal dimension.Karl Halvor Teigen - 1994 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 17 (1):30-31.
  • Deontology and doxastic control.Nicholas Tebben - 2014 - Synthese 191 (12):2835-2847.
    Matthias Steup has developed a compatibilist account of doxastic control, according to which one’s beliefs are under one’s control if and only if they have a “good” causal history. Paradigmatically good causal histories include being caused to believe what one’s evidence indicates, whereas bad ones include those that indicate that the believer is blatantly irrational or mentally ill. I argue that if this is the only kind of control that we have over our beliefs, then our beliefs are not properly (...)
    Direct download (2 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   2 citations  
  • What In Nature Is The Compulsion Of Reason?Kenneth A. Taylor - 2000 - Synthese 122 (1-2):209-244.
    If reason is a real causal force,operative in some, but not all ofour cognition and conation, then itought to be possible to tell anaturalistic story that distinguishes themind which is moved byreason from the mind which is movedby forces other than reason.This essay proposes some steps towardthat end. I proceed by showingthat it is possible to reconcile certainemerging psychological ideasabout the causal powers of themind/brain with a venerablephilosophical vision of reason as the facultyof norms. My accountof reason is psychologistic, social, (...)
    No categories
    Direct download (4 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   3 citations  
  • The thinker dreams of being an emperor.M. M. Taylor - 1990 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 13 (4):685-686.
  • The possibility of irreducible intentionality.Charles Taylor - 1990 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 13 (4):626-626.
  • L'interprétation de la preuve scientifique : Les juristes, les scientifiques et les probabilités.Franco Taroni & Patrice Mangin - 1998 - Médecine et Droit 1998 (30):6-15.
    No categories
    Direct download (3 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark  
  • Is searching for a soul inherently unscientific?Charles T. Tart - 1987 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 10 (4):612.
  • Reliability Theories of Justified Credence.Weng Hong Tang - 2016 - Mind 125 (497):63-94.
    Reliabilists hold that a belief is doxastically justified if and only if it is caused by a reliable process. But since such a process is one that tends to produce a high ratio of true to false beliefs, reliabilism is on the face of it applicable to binary beliefs, but not to degrees of confidence or credences. For while beliefs admit of truth or falsity, the same cannot be said of credences in general. A natural question now arises: Can reliability (...)
    Direct download (4 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   21 citations  
  • Rhetorical Heuristics: Probabilistic Strategies in Complex Oratorical Arguments. [REVIEW]Gabor Tahin - 2011 - Argumentation 25 (1):1-21.
    The study describes a method created for the analysis of persuasive strategies, called rhetorical heuristics, which can be applied in speeches where the argument focuses primarily on questions of fact. First, the author explains how the concept emerged from the study of classical oratory. Then the theoretical background of rhetorical heuristics is outlined through briefly discussing relevant aspects of the psychology of decision-making. Finally, an exposition of how one could find these persuasive strategies introduces rhetorical heuristics in more detail.
    No categories
    Direct download (4 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   1 citation  
  • Intuition and philosophical methodology.John Symons - 2008 - Axiomathes 18 (1):67-89.
    Intuition serves a variety of roles in contemporary philosophy. This paper provides a historical discussion of the revival of intuition in the 1970s, untangling some of the ways that intuition has been used and offering some suggestions concerning its proper place in philosophical investigation. Contrary to some interpretations of the results of experimental philosophy, it is argued that generalized skepticism with respect to intuition is unwarranted. Intuition can continue to play an important role as part of a methodologically conservative stance (...)
    Direct download (4 more)  
     
    Export citation  
     
    Bookmark   15 citations