Segmentation of post-operative glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is essential for the planning of Tumor Treating Fields (TTFields) treatment and other clinical applications. Recent methods developed for pre-operative GBM segmentation perform poorly on post-operative GBM MRI scans. In this paper we present a method for the segmentation of GBM in post-operative patients. Our method incorporates an ensemble of segmentation networks and the Kullback–Leibler divergence agreement score in the objective function to estimate the prediction label uncertainty and cope with (...) noisy labels and inter-observer variability. Moreover, our method integrates the surgery type and computes non-tumorous tissue delineation to automatically segment the tumor. We trained and validated our method on a dataset of 340 enhanced T1 MRI scans of patients that were treated with TTFields (270 scans for train and 70 scans for test). For validation, we developed a tool that uses the uncertainty map along with the segmentation result. Our tool allows visualization and fast editing of the tissues to improve the results dependent on user preference. Three physicians reviewed and graded our segmentation and editing tool on 12 different MRI scans. The validation set average (SD) Dice scores were 0.81 (0.11), 0.71 (0.24), 0.64 (0.25), and 0.68 (0.19) for whole-tumor, resection, necrotic-core, and enhancing-tissue, respectively. The physicians rated 72% of the segmented GBMs acceptable for treatment planning or better. Another 22% can be edited manually in a reasonable time to achieve a clinically acceptable result. According to these results, the proposed method for GBM segmentation can be integrated into TTFields treatment planning software in order to shorten the planning process. To conclude, we have extended a state-of-the-art pre-operative GBM segmentation method with surgery-type, anatomical information, and uncertainty visualization to facilitate a clinically viable segmentation of post-operative GBM for TTFields treatment planning. (shrink)

Nowadays decision making is strongly supported by the high-confident point estimations produced by deep learning algorithms. In many activities, they are sufficient for the decision-making process. However, in some other cases, confidence intervals are required too for an appropriate decision-making process. In this work, a first attempt to generate point estimations with confidence intervals for the $^{222}$Rn radiation level time series at Canfranc Underground Laboratory is presented. To predict the low-radiation periods allows correctly scheduling the unshielded periods for maintenance operations (...) in the experiments hosted in this facility. This should minimize the deposition of radioactive dust on the exposed surfaces during these unshielded periods. An approach based on deep learning with stochastic regulation is evaluated in the forecasting of point estimations and confidence intervals of the $^{222}$Rn time series and compared with a second approach based on Gaussian processes. As a consequence of this work, an evaluation of the capacity of Gaussian process and deep learning with stochastic regularization for generating point estimations and their confidence intervals for this time series is stated. (shrink)

This article considers the methods used to estimate the number of abortions before the 1967 Abortion Act came into operation. It suggests that the registration of legal abortions has enabled a new method to be used to calculate the number of illegal operations. The article concludes that the major effect of the Act was to transfer abortions from the illegal to the legal sector and, using the new method of calculation, estimates a total number of abortions immediately before the Act (...) of just over 100,000 a year. (shrink)

We describe a dual-process theory of how individuals estimate the probabilities of unique events, such as Hillary Clinton becoming U.S. President. It postulates that uncertainty is a guide to improbability. In its computer implementation, an intuitive system 1 simulates evidence in mental models and forms analog non-numerical representations of the magnitude of degrees of belief. This system has minimal computational power and combines evidence using a small repertoire of primitive operations. It resolves the uncertainty of divergent evidence for single events, (...) for conjunctions of events, and for inclusive disjunctions of events, by taking a primitive average of non-numerical probabilities. It computes conditional probabilities in a tractable way, treating the given event as evidence that may be relevant to the probability of the dependent event. A deliberative system 2 maps the resulting representations into numerical probabilities. With access to working memory, it carries out arithmetical operations in combining numerical estimates. Experiments corroborated the theory's predictions. Participants concurred in estimates of real possibilities. They violated the complete joint probability distribution in the predicted ways, when they made estimates about conjunctions: P, P, P, disjunctions: P, P, P, and conditional probabilities P, P, P. They were faster to estimate the probabilities of compound propositions when they had already estimated the probabilities of each of their components. We discuss the implications of these results for theories of probabilistic reasoning. (shrink)

Doubly robust (DR) estimators are an important class of statistics derived from a theory of semiparametric efficiency. They have become a popular tool in causal inference, including applications to dynamic treatment regimes. The doubly robust estimators for the mean response to a dynamic treatment regime may be conceived through the augmented inverse probability weighted (AIPW) estimating function, defined as the sum of the inverse probability weighted (IPW) estimating function and an augmentation term. The IPW estimating function of the causal estimand (...) via marginal structural model is defined as the complete-case score function for those subjects whose treatment sequence is consistent with the dynamic regime in question divided by the probability of observing the treatment sequence given the subject's treatment and covariate histories. The augmentation term is derived by projecting the IPW estimating function onto the nuisance tangent space and has mean-zero under the truth. The IPW estimator of the causal estimand is consistent if (i) the treatment assignment mechanism is correctly modeled and the AIPW estimator is consistent if either (i) is true or (ii) nested functions of intermediate and final outcomes are correctly modeled.Hence, the AIPW estimator is doubly robust and, moreover, the AIPW is semiparametric efficient if both (i) and (ii) are true simultaneously. Unfortunately, DR estimators can be inferior when either (i) or (ii) is true and the other false. In this case, the misspecified parts of the model can have a detrimental effect on the variance of the DR estimator. We propose an improved DR estimator of causal estimand in dynamic treatment regimes through a technique originally developed by [4] which aims to mitigate the ill-effects of model misspecification through a constrained optimization.In addition to solving a doubly robust system of equations, the improved DR estimator simultaneously minimizes the asymptotic variance of the estimator under a correctly specified treatment assignment mechanism but misspecification of intermediate and final outcome models. We illustrate the desirable operating characteristics of the estimator through Monte Carlo studies and apply the methods to data from a randomized study of integrilin therapy for patients undergoing coronary stent implantation. The methods proposed here are new and may be used to further improve personalized medicine, in general. (shrink)

With the widespread application of electric vehicles, the study of the power lithium-ion battery has broad prospects and great academic significance. The state of charge is one of the key parts in battery management system, which is used to provide guarantee for the safe and efficient operation of LIB. To obtain the reliable SOC estimation result under the influence of simple model and measurement noise, a novel estimation method with adaptive feedback compensator is presented in this paper. The (...) simplified dynamic external electrical characteristic of LIB is represented by the one-order Thevenin equivalent circuit model and then the ECM parameters are identified by the forgetting factor recursive least squares method. Fully taking into account the feedback effect of terminal voltage innovation, the combination of adaptive extended Kalman filter and innovation vector-based proportional-integral-derivative feedback is proposed to estimate the LIB SOC. The common single proportional feedback of Kalman filter is replaced by the innovation vector-based PID feedback, which means that the multiple prior terminal voltage innovation is used in the measurement correction step of KF. The results reveal that the AEKF with PID feedback compensation strategy can improve the SOC estimation performance compared with the common AEKF, and it reveals good robust capability and rapid convergence speed for initial SOC errors. The maximum absolute error and average absolute error for SOC estimation are close to 4% and 2.6%, respectively. (shrink)

This study introduces visual cognition into Lithium-ion battery capacity estimation. The proposed method consists of four steps. First, the acquired charging current or discharge voltage data in each cycle are arranged to form a two-dimensional image. Second, the generated image is decomposed into multiple spatial-frequency channels with a set of orientation subbands by using non-subsampled contourlet transform. NSCT imitates the multichannel characteristic of the human visual system that provides multiresolution, localization, directionality, and shift invariance. Third, several time-domain indicators of (...) the NSCT coefficients are extracted to form an initial high-dimensional feature vector. Similarly, inspired by the HVS manifold sensing characteristic, the Laplacian eigenmap manifold learning method, which is considered to reveal the evolutionary law of battery performance degradation within a low-dimensional intrinsic manifold, is used to further obtain a low-dimensional feature vector. Finally, battery capacity degradation is estimated using the geodesic distance on the manifold between the initial and the most recent features. Verification experiments were conducted using data obtained under different operating and aging conditions. Results suggest that the proposed visual cognition approach provides a highly accurate means of estimating battery capacity and thus offers a promising method derived from the emerging field of cognitive computing. (shrink)

There has been increasing interest in recent years in the development of approaches to estimate causal effects when the number of potential confounders is prohibitively large. This growth in interest has led to a number of potential estimators one could use in this setting. Each of these estimators has different operating characteristics, and it is unlikely that one estimator will outperform all others across all possible scenarios. Coupling this with the fact that an analyst can never know which approach is (...) best for their particular data, we propose a synthetic estimator that averages over a set of candidate estimators. Averaging is widely used in statistics for problems such as prediction, where there are many possible models, and averaging can improve performance and increase robustness to using incorrect models. We show that these ideas carry over into the estimation of causal effects in high-dimensional scenarios. We show theoretically that averaging provides robustness against choosing a bad model, and show empirically via simulation that the averaging estimator performs quite well, and in most cases nearly as well as the best among all possible candidate estimators. Finally, we illustrate these ideas in an environmental wide association study and see that averaging provides the largest benefit in the more difficult scenarios that have large numbers of confounders. (shrink)

This paper deals with various connections that are found to exist between statistical estimation methods for decision-making and rules of group choice in the social choice area. Initially the aggregation of individual opinions is formulated as a pattern recognition problem; firstly it is shown that individual preferences lead to a natural representation in terms of binary patterns. Then we proceed to show how the search for a group preference pattern can be conducted by classifying the input preference patterns into (...) various ‘pattern classes’ and using the resulting classification boundaries to define the area of mutual agreement over some of the available alternatives. This leads to a decision-theoretic problem which consists in defining a decision rule (for classification) that is least likely to lead to misrecognition of arbitrary preference patterns. A maximum likelihood solution is obtained and compared with some well-known rules of group decision-making. Other solutions are also possible, on the basis of different optimality criteria, and their social choice interpretation is suggested. Finally, a method using Coleman's linear model for attributes is applied to yield group decision rules by feature weighting of election issues. (shrink)

In this article, we investigated a deterministic model of pneumonia-meningitis coinfection. Employing the Atangana–Baleanu fractional derivative operator in the Caputo framework, we analyze a seven-component approach based on ordinary differential equations. Furthermore, the invariant domain, disease-free as well as endemic equilibria, and the validity of the model’s potential results are all investigated. According to controller design evaluation and modelling, the modulation technique devised is effective in diminishing the proportion of incidences in various compartments. A fundamental reproducing value is generated by (...) exploiting the next generation matrix to assess the properties of the equilibrium. The system’s reliability is further evaluated. Sensitivity analysis is used to classify the impact of each component on the spread or prevention of illness. Using simulation studies, the impacts of providing therapy have been determined. Additionally, modelling the appropriate configuration demonstrated that lowering the fractional order from 1 necessitates a rapid initiation of the specified control technique at the largest intensity achievable and retaining it for the bulk of the pandemic’s duration. (shrink)

Of all the different types of public buildings, hospitals are the biggest energy consumers. Cooling systems for air conditioning and healthcare uses are particularly energy intensive. Forecasting hospital thermal-cooling demand is a remarkable and innovative method capable of improving the overall energy efficiency of an entire cooling system. Predictive models allow users to forecast the activity of water-cooled generators and adapt power generation to the real demand expected for the day ahead, while avoiding inefficient subcooling. In addition, the maintenance costs (...) related to unnecessary starts and stops and power-generator breakdowns occurring over the long term can be reduced. This study is based on the operations of a real hospital facility and details the steps taken to develop an optimal and efficient model based on a genetic methodology that searches for low-complexity models through feature selection, parameter tuning and parsimonious model selection. The methodology, called GAparsimony, has been tested with neural networks, support vector machines and gradient boosting techniques. Finally, a weighted combination of the three best models was created. The new operational method employed herein can be replicated in similar buildings with similar water-cooled generators. (shrink)

Recent advances in wireless data transmission technology have the potential to revolutionize clinical neuroscience. Today sensing-capable electrical stimulators, known as “bidirectional devices”, are used to acquire chronic brain activity from humans in natural environments. However, with wireless transmission come potential failures in data transmission, and not all available devices correctly account for missing data or provide precise timing for when data losses occur. Our inability to precisely reconstruct time-domain neural signals makes it difficult to apply subsequent neural signal processing techniques (...) and analyses. Here, our goal was to accurately reconstruct time-domain neural signals impacted by data loss during wireless transmission. Towards this end, we developed a method termed Periodic Estimation of Lost Packets. PELP leverages the highly periodic nature of stimulation artifacts to precisely determine when data losses occur. Using simulated stimulation waveforms added to human EEG data, we show that PELP is robust to a range of stimulation waveforms and noise characteristics. Then, we applied PELP to local field potential recordings collected using an implantable, bidirectional DBS platform operating at various telemetry bandwidths. By effectively accounting for the timing of missing data, PELP enables the analysis of neural time series data collected via wireless transmission—a prerequisite for better understanding the brain-behavior relationships underlying neurological and psychiatric disorders. (shrink)

The common view of the transition between subitizing and numerosity estimation regimes is that there is a hard bound on the subitizing range, and beyond this range, people estimate. However, this view does not adequately address the behavioral signatures of enumeration under conditions of attentional load or in the immediate post-subitizing range. The possibility that there might exist a numerosity range where both processes of subitizing and estimation operate in conjunction has so far been ignored. Here, we investigate (...) this new proposal, that people strategically combine the processes of subitizing and estimation to maximize accuracy and precision, given time or attentional constraints. We present a process-level account of how subitizing and estimation can be combined through strategic deployment of attention to maximize the precision of perceived numerosity given time constraints. We then describe a computational model of this account and apply it in two experimental simulations to demonstrate how it can explain key findings in prior enumeration research. While recent modeling work has argued that the behavioral signatures of enumeration can best be explained through a single numerosity system with a single form of representation, we argue that our model demonstrates how the traditional two-systems view of numerical representation accounts for behavioral data through coordination with a unified attentional mechanism, rather than a unified representation. (shrink)

Precise global solar radiation data are indispensable to the design, planning, operation, and management of solar radiation utilization equipment. Some examples prove that the uncertainty of the prediction of solar radiation provides more value than deterministic ones in the management of power systems. This study appraises the potential of random forest, V-support vector regression, and a resilient backpropagation artificial neural network for daily global solar radiation point prediction from average relative humidity, daily average temperature, and daily sunshine duration. To acquire (...) more accurate predictions of DGSR and examine the influence of historical DGSR on the performance of point prediction models, two different model inputs are considered: three meteorological variables and the lags of DGSR and three meteorological variables. Then, two interval prediction methods are developed by introducing the KDE to out-of-bag, introducing kernel density estimation to split conformal based on the three machine learning models. The two methods for interval prediction are denoted as OOB-KDE and SC-KDE. The mean absolute error, mean relative error, and Kendall rank correlation are used to assess the point prediction models. The performance of interval prediction methods is evaluated by the prediction interval coverage probability, prediction interval normalized average width, and coverage width criteria. The following conclusions are drawn from this study. First, the V-SVR model performs best with the lowest mean absolute error of 0.016 and mean relative error of 0.001. Second, the lags of DGSR improve the prediction accuracy by about 30%. Third, the OOB-KDE and SC-KDE methods improved the quality of the prediction interval. OOB-KDE improved CWC by 81%, and SC-KDE improved CWC by 99.99%. Fourth, the best interval prediction result is obtained using the SC-KDE method using the V-SVR model. The average difference between its PICP and prediction interval nominal coverage is only 3% of the PINC, and its PINAW is less than 0.007. (shrink)

Tautology is interpreted as a necessary condition for the workability of an operations system. This condition suggests the following possibilities: the stable solvability of balance equations between available resources and requests for them; the calculation of potential and kinetic of the system together with the estimation of the contribution of every operation to the kinetic of the system; the construction of a deadlockless infinite cyclic process for performance of some works.

. With an overall objective of establishing association between air pollutants and incidence of respiratory diseases, the environmental professionals and medical practitioners have made significant contribution, using statistical mechanics in modelling epidemiological data, population characteristics, and pollution parameters. Broadly speaking, the studies have shown that the increase in vehicular traffic has been one of the causes of respiratory diseases. However, the WHO Centre for Environment and Health, Europe in its 2005 document states: “There is little evidence for a causal relationship (...) between asthma prevalence/incidence and air pollution in general, though the evidence is suggestive of a causal association between the prevalence/incidence of asthma symptoms and living in close proximity to traffic”. Decision making process in a real world is invariably based on perceptions which are expressed in words or may be in numeric terms and not in probability terms. In the paper, we made an attempt to model the perceptions of experienced pulmonologists in arriving at their combined degree of belief/plausibility/ignorance for all the possible combinations of identified respiratory diseases, using evidence theory and fuzzy relational calculus without collecting sizeable parametric data accumulated over a period of years. Tightening pollution norms by the regulatory authorities is an overall objective of the global efforts on greenhouse gases reduction in general, and air pollution mitigation in particular. The concept of solar battery operated electric vehicles for road transport is advocated, initially for two/three wheelers, and extending it to four wheelers, especially in the developing countries. (shrink)

The purpose of the simultaneous measurement of noncommuting quantum observables can be viewed as the joint estimation of parameters of the density operator of the quantum system. Joint estimation involves the application of a multiply parameterized operator-valued measure. An example related to the simultaneous estimation of the position and velocity of a particle is given. Conceptual difficulties attending simultaneous measurement of noncommuting observables are avoided by this formation.

Conflicts have arisen between communities and operators of confined animal feeding as farms have become bigger in order to maintain their competitiveness. These conflicts have been difficult to resolve because measuring and allocating the benefits and costs of livestock production is difficult. This papers demonstrates a policy tool for promoting compromise whereby the community gets reduced negative impacts from livestock while at the same time continues to benefit from livestock jobs, taxes, and related economic activity. Public economic benefits and public (...) economic costs of confined animal feeding operations are estimated for every farm and affected house in Craven County, North Carolina. The results show public economic benefits of $5.7 million and public economic costs of $2.2 million, but that the ratio of benefits to costs for individual farm-house pairs varies in important ways across the 26 hog farms in Craven County. (shrink)

As moral injury is a still-emerging concept within the area of military mental health, prevalence estimates for moral injury and its precursor, potentially morally injurious events (PMIEs), remain unknown for many of the world’s militaries. The present study sought to estimate the prevalence of PMIEs in the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF), using data collected from CAF personnel deployed to Afghanistan, via logistic regressions controlling for relevant sociodemographic, military, and deployment characteristics. Analyses revealed that over 65% of CAF members reported exposure (...) to at least one event that would be considered a PMIE. The most commonly PMIEs individuals reported included seeing ill or injured women and children they were unable to help (48.4%), being unable to distinguish between combatants and non-combatants (43.6%), and finding themselves in a threatening situation where they were unable to respond due to the rules of engagement under which they were required to operate (35.4%). These findings provide support for both the presence of exposure to PMIEs in CAF members and the need for formal longitudinal data collection regarding PMIE exposure and moral injury development. (shrink)

?German warplanes fired on two hijacked military fuel trucks in the northern province of Kunduz killing an estimated 90 villagers?.? While the debate over what is now known as the Kunduz Air Strike in 2009 has by no means ended, it has ? or so I shall argue ? missed a key point. By allowing the media's witchlike hunt for a scapegoat to dominate the military debate, a critical consideration concerning the ethics of network-enabled operations has been overlooked. As such, (...) I take the tragedy of the Kunduz air strikes as a case study of the failure of network-enabled operations, focusing on the ethical questions that this raises. To do so, I will begin with a description of what happened before, during and after the air strike. Following this, I consider three ethical concerns that arise as a result of network-enabled operations. I end with a proposal to increase the possibility of ethically reflective decision-making in network-enabled operations, which calls for a relational type of thinking and a complementary form of training. (shrink)

Conflicts have arisen between communities and operators of confined animal feeding as farms have become bigger in order to maintain their competitiveness. These conflicts have been difficult to resolve because measuring and allocating the benefits and costs of livestock production is difficult. This papers demonstrates a policy tool for promoting compromise whereby the community gets reduced negative impacts from livestock while at the same time continues to benefit from livestock jobs, taxes, and related economic activity. Public economic benefits and public (...) economic costs of confined animal feeding operations are estimated for every farm and affected house in Craven County, North Carolina. The results show public economic benefits of $5.7 million and public economic costs of $2.2 million, but that the ratio of benefits to costs for individual farm-house pairs varies in important ways across the 26 hog farms in Craven County. (shrink)

Risk management is a well-known method to face technological challenges through a win–win combination of protective and proactive approaches, fostering the collaboration of operators, researchers, regulators, and industries for the exploitation of new markets. In the field of autonomous and unmanned aerial systems, or UAS, a considerable amount of work has been devoted to risk analysis, the generation of ground risk maps, and ground risk assessment by estimating the fatality rate. The paper aims to expand this approach with a tool (...) for managing data protection risks raised by drones through the design of flight maps. The tool should allow UAS operators choosing the best air corridor for their drones based on the so-called privacy by design principle pursuant to Article 25 of the EU data protection regulation, the GDPR. Among the manifold applications of this approach, the design of fly zones for drones can be tailored for public authorities in the phase of authorization of new operations, much as for national Data Protection authorities that have to control the lawfulness of personal data processing by UAS operations. The overall aim is to present the first win–win approach to data protection issues, aerospace engineering challenges, and risk management methods for the threats posed by this technology. (shrink)

Risk management is a well-known method to face technological challenges through a win–win combination of protective and proactive approaches, fostering the collaboration of operators, researchers, regulators, and industries for the exploitation of new markets. In the field of autonomous and unmanned aerial systems, or UAS, a considerable amount of work has been devoted to risk analysis, the generation of ground risk maps, and ground risk assessment by estimating the fatality rate. The paper aims to expand this approach with a tool (...) for managing data protection risks raised by drones through the design of flight maps. The tool should allow UAS operators choosing the best air corridor for their drones based on the so-called privacy by design principle pursuant to Article 25 of the EU data protection regulation, the GDPR. Among the manifold applications of this approach, the design of fly zones for drones can be tailored for public authorities in the phase of authorization of new operations, much as for national Data Protection authorities that have to control the lawfulness of personal data processing by UAS operations. The overall aim is to present the first win–win approach to data protection issues, aerospace engineering challenges, and risk management methods for the threats posed by this technology. (shrink)

Risk management is a well-known method to face technological challenges through a win–win combination of protective and proactive approaches, fostering the collaboration of operators, researchers, regulators, and industries for the exploitation of new markets. In the field of autonomous and unmanned aerial systems, or UAS, a considerable amount of work has been devoted to risk analysis, the generation of ground risk maps, and ground risk assessment by estimating the fatality rate. The paper aims to expand this approach with a tool (...) for managing data protection risks raised by drones through the design of flight maps. The tool should allow UAS operators choosing the best air corridor for their drones based on the so-called privacy by design principle pursuant to Article 25 of the EU data protection regulation, the GDPR. Among the manifold applications of this approach, the design of fly zones for drones can be tailored for public authorities in the phase of authorization of new operations, much as for national Data Protection authorities that have to control the lawfulness of personal data processing by UAS operations. The overall aim is to present the first win–win approach to data protection issues, aerospace engineering challenges, and risk management methods for the threats posed by this technology. (shrink)

Corrupt regulatory environment encourages firms to deploy middlemen for speedy and assured acquisition of different services from regulatory agencies. Using a World Bank dataset of 2210 Indian manufacturing firms, this article examines how firms with middlemen deal with corrupt governmental agencies for its operational efficiency. Our results demonstrate that deployment of middlemen by the firms is often accompanied by a substantial increase in operational delay, relatively trigger more consumption of senior management’s time on regulatory disentanglement, enhance the likelihood/tendency to pay (...) bribe, and likely to face more court cases as a means of restitution of legal rights. As firm-specific attributes may contaminate our preliminary results, we utilized the propensity score framework to examine relationships among variables of interests. Our study contributes to the inconspicuous part of the corruption literature by attempting to present a comprehensive but indirect assessment of the functions of middlemen that predominantly remained unattended except some scattered descriptive, case-based anecdotal presentations. (shrink)

Nowadays, many countries are promoting entrepreneurial education or the “innovation, entrepreneurship, and creativity” education. Entrepreneurial education can enhance a nation’s economic competitiveness and give rise to new business. At the moment, entrepreneurial courses are mostly designed by school teachers; however, while school teachers may possess business experience, they lack in entrepreneurial experience. Hence, entrepreneurial education courses call for experts with entrepreneurial experience to contribute to course designs and assist with course teachings. Entrepreneurial education not only improves a student’s entrepreneurial skills, (...) but also enables each student to explore their personal characteristics in order to advance the collaboration efficacy of the team as a whole. This study asked six experts with entrepreneurial experience in the information industry to work with school teachers in course design as well as teaching collaboration. The course design starts with three talk sessions given by professionals who share with students their thoughts and experiences in entrepreneurial products, team organization, fund raising, and profit calculation. Following that, each student is asked to share their own thoughts on entrepreneurial products and start searching for team members and planning their project. During the course, each team receives six individual advising sessions from the professionals, with topics ranging from product modeling, feasibility, product market estimation, fundraising methods, and profit calculation. The experts also provide each team member with personal trait analysis. Last but not least, the course invites five management-level industry professionals to play the role of venture capital investor and evaluate each team’s product modeling based on their presentation. This study reviews the grades given by the experts as well as the evaluations given by the three industry managers to assess whether the entrepreneurial education course’s student entrepreneur teams satisfy the industry’s expectations. (shrink)

This month the American Journal of Bioethics examines the intersectionality of medicine, ethics, and race. In “Race, Power, and COVID-19: A Call for Advocacy Within Bioethics,” Mithani and colleagu...

The current study sought to assess the mediating role of green market orientation dimensions in the relationship between social risk and new product performance among European Multinational Enterprises (EMNEs). We also assessed the moderating role of entrepreneurial orientation in the relationship between green market orientation and new product performance. The study was based on primary data gathered from 317 EMNEs in Ghana. After various validity and reliability checks, ordinary least squares (OLS) analysis was performed to estimate the various relationships hypothesized (...) in the study. The study finds that social risk has a negative effect on the success of EMNEs' new products. This negative effect is however nullified by the positive mediating effects of strategic green market orientation, tactical green market orientation and internal green market orientation. Entrepreneurial orientation also played a significant moderating effect in the relationship between green market orientation dimensions and EMNEs' new product performance. Based on this, theoretical and managerial contributions were made. (shrink)

The method of evaluation of technical and economic indicators for the development of gas condensate field tested in the branch system of enterprises of PJSC "Ukrgazvydobuvannya" is considered, which is supplemented and simplified for obtaining approximate estimates in the case of annual natural or artificial changes in the gas condensate factor and thermobaric states of the extracted fluid during the operational period of the late stage. Targeted changes in the algorithms of calculations of basic technical and economic indicators, especially for (...) partially exhausted deposits, which have become permanent in operation with compressed compressor stations and fixed pressure on the wells, are used, dry gas is used for returning to the formation or dehumidification of the hinterland. The main factors of influence on the final results of the technical and economic evaluation are determined. Improvement of the technique of an approximate estimation of technical and economic indicators of the development of the gas condensate deposit facility for the possibility of adaptation of calculations at the late stage, which usually involves the operation of the SCS, the use of PPE technologies, the drying of the faces by high-pressure gas, and artificial adjustment of the working pressures of wells. The changes in the results of technical and economical calculations are taken into account when taking into account the parameters of the DKS, PPD, thermobaric intensification for the possibility of use in production and in the educational process. (shrink)

Intelligence estimates based on models keyed to frequency and recency of past occurrences make people less secure even if they predict most harmful events. The U.S. presidential commission on WMDs, the 9/11 commission, and Spain's comisión 11-M have condemned the status quo mentality of the intelligence community, which they see as being preoccupied with today's “current operations” and tactical requirements, and inattentive to tomorrow's far-ranging problems and strategic solutions. But the overriding emphasis in these commissions' recommendations is on further vertically (...) integrating intelligence collection, analysis, and operations. Such proposals to further centralize intelligence and unify command and control are not promising given recent transformations in Jihadist networks to a somewhat “leaderless resistance” in the wake of Al Qaeda's operational demise. To defeat terrorist networks requires grasping novel relations between an englobing messianic moral framework, the rootless intellectual and physical mobility of immigrant and diaspora communities, and the overarching conceptual, emotional, and logistical afford- ances of the Internet. Britain's WWII experience provides salutary lessons for think- ing creatively with decentralized expertise and partially autonomous approaches. (shrink)

Background and Objective: Understanding how trauma impacts the self-structure of individuals suffering from the Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) symptoms is a complex matter and despite several attempts to explain the relationship between trauma and the “Self”, this issue still lacks clarity. Therefore, adopting a new theoretical perspective may help understand PTSD deeper and to shed light on the underlying psychophysiological mechanisms. Methods: In this study, we employed the “three-dimensional construct model of the experiential selfhood” where three major components of selfhood (...) (phenomenal first-person agency, embodiment, and reflection/narration) are related to three Operational Modules (OMs) of the self-referential brain network. These modules can be reliably estimated through operational synchrony analysis of the Electroencephalogram (EEG). Six individuals with PTSD symptoms and twenty-nine sex-, age- and demographic- (race, education, marital status) matched healthy controls underwent resting state EEG signal acquisition with the following estimation of the synchrony strength within every OM. Results: Our results indicate that subjects with PTSD symptoms had significantly stronger EEG operational synchrony within anterior and right posterior OMs as well as significantly weaker EEG operational synchrony within left posterior OM compared to healthy controls. Moreover, increased the functional integrity of the anterior OM was positively associated with hyperactivity symptoms, reduced synchrony of the left posterior OM was associated with greater avoidance, and increased right posterior OM integrity was positively correlated with intrusion and mood symptoms. Conclusion: The results are interpreted in light of the triad model of selfhood and its theoretical and clinical implications (including a new treatment approach) are discussed. (shrink)

Making decisions can be hard, but it can also be facilitated. Simple heuristics are fast and frugal but nevertheless fairly accurate decision rules that people can use to compensate for their limitations in computational capacity, time, and knowledge when they make decisions [Gigerenzer, G., Todd, P. M., & the ABC Research Group (1999). Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart. New York: Oxford University Press.]. These heuristics are effective to the extent that they can exploit the structure of information in the (...) environment in which they operate. Specifically, they require knowledge about the predictive value of probabilistic cues. However, it is often difficult to keep track of all the available cues in the environment and how they relate to any relevant criterion. This problem becomes even more critical if compound cues are considered. We submit that knowledge about the causal structure of the environment helps decision makers focus on a manageable subset of cues, thus effectively reducing the potential computational complexity inherent in even relatively simple decision-making tasks. We review experimental evidence that tested this hypothesis and report the results of a simulation study. We conclude that causal knowledge can act as a meta-cue for identifying highly valid cues, either individual or compound, and helps in the estimation of their validities. (shrink)

On estime souvent que les Grecs avaient des phénomènes économiques une approche triviale et non scientifique. Ce point de vue est en partie motivé par ce que l’économiste et historien de la pensée économique J.A. Schumpeter et l’historien de la Grèce antique M.I. Finley considèrent être l’excessive préoccupation des penseurs grecs pour les « vaines » considérations domestiques de nature matérielle, au détriment de l’analyse scientifique des phénomènes économiques. Contre une telle interprétation, l’hypothèse présentée ici est que cette préoccupation répond (...) au souci de la conservation des biens qui, avec leur acquisition et leur bon usage, est l’une des trois activités principales de l’art économique ou oikonomique. L’examen détaillé des deux opérations de conservation que sont le rangement et la gestion, en lien avec les divers aspects du Bien économique qui leur sont associés, permet de le montrer. (shrink)

This paper presents a kernel density estimation method by means of real-coded crossovers. Functions of real-coded crossover operators are composed of probabilistic density estimation from parental populations and sampling from estimated models. Real-coded Genetic Algorithm (RCGA) does not explicitly estimate probabilistic distributions, however, probabilistic model estimation is implicitly included in algorithms of real-coded crossovers. Based on this understanding, we exploit the implicit estimation of probabilistic distribution of crossovers as a kernel density estimator. We also propose an (...) application of crossover kernels to Expectation-Maximization estimation (EM) of Gaussian mixtures. (shrink)

Virtue reliabilists argue that an agent can only gain knowledge if she responsibly employs a reliable belief-forming process. This in turn demands that she is either aware that her process is reliable or is sensitive to her process’s reliability in some other way. According to a recent argument in the philosophy of mind, sometimes a cognitive mechanism (i.e. precision estimation) can ensure that a belief-forming process is only employed when it’s reliable. If this is correct, epistemic responsibility can sometimes (...) be explained entirely on the subpersonal level. In this paper, I argue that the mechanism of precision estimation–the alleged new variety of epistemic responsibility–is a more ubiquitous phenomenon than epistemic responsibility. I show that precision estimation operates at levels that are not always concerned with the epistemic domain. Lastly, I broaden this argument to explain how all subpersonal epistemologies are likely to fall prey to the problem of demarcating cognitive agency and the problem of attributing beliefs. (shrink)

We present strategies how to reconstruct (estimate) properties of a quantum channel described by the map E based on incomplete measurements. In a particular case of a qubit channel a complete reconstruction of the map E can be performed via complete tomography of four output states E[ρj] that originate from a set of four linearly independent “test” states ρj (j = 1,2,3,4) at the input of the channel. We study the situation when less than four linearly independent states are transmitted (...) via the channel and measured at the output. We present strategies how to reconstruct the channel when just one, two or three states are transmitted via the channel. In particular, we show that if just one state is transmitted via the channel then the best reconstruction can be achieved when this state is a total mixture described by the density operator ρ = I/2. To improve the reconstruction procedure one has to send via the channel more states. The best strategy is to complement the total mixture with pure states that are mutually orthogonal in the sense of the Bloch-sphere representation. We show that unitary transformations (channels) can be uniquely reconstructed (determined) based on the information of how three properly chosen input states are transformed under the action of the channel. (shrink)

Dr. Vukov analyzing patients with disorders of consciousness, proposed that medical well-regarded policy recommendations cannot be justified by looking solely to patients’ actual levels of consciousness (minimally conscious state – MCS versus vegetative state – VS), but that they can be justified by looking to patients’ potential for consciousness. One objective way to estimate this potential (actual physical possibility) is to consider a neurophysiologically informed strategy. Ideally such strategy would utilize objective brain activity markers of consciousness/unconsciousness. The Operational Architectonics (OA) (...) theory of brain-mind functioning is an example of such a strategy. Besides being mathematically simple, neurophysiologically accurate, and compatible with the cognitive/phenomenal perspectives on consciousness, application of OA strategy to quantitative EEG analysis of patients in VS and MCS revealed that the absence of consciousness in VS is paralleled by impairment of overall EEG operational architecture. Specifically, neuronal assemblies become smaller, their life span shortened, and they became highly unstable and functionally disconnected (desynchronized). At the same time, fluctuating (minimal) awareness in patients in MCS was paralleled by partial restoration of EEG operational architecture (increased size, life span, and stability of neuronal assemblies, together with an increased number and strength of functional connections among them), approaching the level found in healthy fully conscious participants. Moreover OA strategy to EEG analysis allowed predicting the emergence of consciousness in VS patients after six years following the brain trauma. Therefore, the OA methodology could reliably predict which patients may regain consciousness, and thus determine which patients may have the potential for consciousness. (shrink)

This paper generalizes the simple regret model by Bell in Operations Research 30(5), 961-981 and Loomes and Sugden in The Economic Journal 92(368), 805-824 to cope with the situation in which decision outcomes are multi-attributed. We propose a model that combines the simple regret model for ex ante preferences and the additive difference representation for ex post preferences. We first present a necessary and sufficient axiomatization of our model in Savage’s framework. The proposed model is composed of three types of (...) functions. One is a value function for each attribute. The others are attribute-dependent and holistic regret-rejoicing functions that capture trade-offs among value-differences of chosen and forgone outcomes for each attribute and among all attributes, respectively. We then provide constructive procedures for those functions and methods for consistency checks of the procedures. We, finally, conduct an experiment to estimate those functions in the two attributes case by means of the constructive procedure and give an application of the model and our findings. (shrink)

Machine learning operates at the intersection of statistics and computer science. This raises the question as to its underlying methodology. While much emphasis has been put on the close link between the process of learning from data and induction, the falsificationist component of machine learning has received minor attention. In this paper, we argue that the idea of falsification is central to the methodology of machine learning. It is commonly thought that machine learning algorithms infer general prediction rules from past (...) observations. This is akin to a statistical procedure by which estimates are obtained from a sample of data. But machine learning algorithms can also be described as choosing one prediction rule from an entire class of functions. In particular, the algorithm that determines the weights of an artificial neural network operates by empirical risk minimization and rejects prediction rules that lack empirical adequacy. It also exhibits a behavior of implicit regularization that pushes hypothesis choice toward simpler prediction rules. We argue that taking both aspects together gives rise to a falsificationist account of artificial neural networks. (shrink)

According to estimates more than 400 biobanks currently operate across Europe. The term ‘biobank’ indicates a specific field of genetic study that has quietly developed without any significant critical reflection across European societies. Although scientists now routinely use this phrase, the wider public is still confused when the word ‘bank’ is being connected with the collection of their biological samples. There is a striking lack of knowledge of this field. In the recent Eurobarometer survey it was demonstrated that even in (...) 2010 two-thirds of the respondents had never even heard about biobanks. The term gives the impression that a systematic collection of biological samples can constitute a ‘bank’ of considerable financial worth, where the biological samples, which are insignificant in isolation but are valuable as a collection, can be preserved, analysed and put to ‘profitable use’. By studying the practices of the numerous already existing biobanks, the authors address the following questions: to what extent does the term ‘biobank’ reflect the normative concept of using biological samples for the purposes of biomedical research? Furthermore, is it in harmony with the so far agreed legal–ethical consensus in Europe or does it deliberately pull science to the territory of a new, ambiguous commercial field? In other words, do biobanks constitute a medico-legal fiction or are they substantively different from other biomedical research protocols on human tissues? (shrink)

1) Gaukroger estimates that there exist two irreconcilable theses in the Cartesian method in the Rules. The first thesis concerns the problem of the cognitive grasp of inference, the other the problem of the method of discovery. Descartes, by integrating deduction as a simple object of intuition, rejects the psychologicalinterpretation of inference, and elevates deduction to the status of a necessary condition of knowledge. On the other hand, the problem of the method of discovery requires that inference produces a new (...) truth as its conclusion. Descartes takes the algebraic solution of equations as the model of this method. But this orientation leads Descartes to deny all cognitive function operating in the inference of synthetic form. Thus, according to Gaukroger, these two theses tendto be opposed, calling into question the unity of the method. 2) We admit the cognitive analysis of Gaukroger on the Cartesian inference. However, Gaukroger does not see the importance of “the natural power of the mind” in the Rules. Indeed, the cognitive role of inference is always understood by Descartes, in light of this natural power. Thus, the main role of the method is to teach ways of increasing this power. Descartes tries to pose, by the algebraic treatment of questions, an analogy between the mathematical order and the order of the operations of the mind, enabling him to discover pure schemes of these operations. And, It is by theses schemes that the mind exercise itself in order to increase its natural power. For this reason, we must reconsider Gaukroger’s thesis that Descartesassimilates literally the method of discovery and algebraic solution, as well as his thesis of the inconsistency of the Cartesian method. (shrink)

Transportation companies which operate in risk conditions need the organization and management of the system of economic security. Ensuring adequate economic security in activities of transportation companies is one of the main management tasks because the efficiency of operation of the business depends on it. Development and implementation of a system of evaluation the level of economic security of the transportation companies, adequate to modern market conditions, enhances the efficiency of transportation companies. Based on analysis of the literature, there are (...) a number of approaches to the assessment of the economic security on the enterprise, in particular, resource, task, complex and so on. Methodological approach to the evaluation of the economic security of the transportation companies on the sources of threats is proposed. The sources and causes of threats, risks and effects of realized risk indicators for the economic security of the transportation companies are identified according to the proposed methodological approach to the evaluation of the economic security. Assessment indicators may vary depending on the realized risk. A flexible system of indicators that includes absolute and relative figures are formed for making management decisions on the basis of the proposed evaluation of the economic security of the transportation companies indicators. Absolute figures are estimated in the dynamics and are analyzed on the structure. Relative figures are formed as the ratio of the corresponding absolute index to the value either volume of traffic, or the number of rolling stock, or the number of employees, or the cost of resources and so on. Threats significantly affect the level of economic security, create the need for efficient internal threats management, and mechanisms of adaptation to external threats in the system of economic safety of the transportation companies. This allows the transportation companies to ensure effective management decisions to minimize or avoid the impact of threats on the activities of transportation companies, and thus to achieve a high level of economic security. (shrink)

Women entrepreneurs innovate, initiate, engage, and run business enterprises to contribute the domestic development. Women entrepreneurs think and start taking risks of operating enterprises and combine various factors involved in production to deal with the uncertain business environment. Entrepreneurship and technological innovation play a crucial role in developing the economy by creating job opportunities, improving skills, and executing new ideas. It has a significant impact on the income of the household. The study focused on investigating the role of women’s entrepreneurship (...) and innovation technologies in contributing to household income in the challenging situation of the pandemic COVID-19. The paper emphasized identifying the determinants of female entrepreneurial contribution toward household income. This study collected data from selected rural and urban areas of district Faisalabad through a self-administered questionnaire. Investigators interviewed female entrepreneurs and chose them through the snowball sampling technique from a population of purposively selected female-run businesses. Interviews were conducted with women entrepreneurs to gather relevant information for the survey investigation at their workplaces and home. The effects of various factors, including age, education, family size, income from other sources, time allocated to entrepreneurial activity, firm size, and location were estimated empirically using an ordered logit model. The study findings exhibited a positive and significant role of respondents’ education, family size, time allocated to entrepreneurial activities, and firm size. The survey outcomes also indicated that the contribution of entrepreneurial income to household income in the rural areas is significantly higher than that in urban areas. This study signifies that regulations against gender discrimination in public and private institutions are helpful. Besides, encouraging an environment for entrepreneurial culture among women in the country would increase family income. The study’s findings and policy implications directly link to Sustainable Development Goal 5 of Gender Equality and SDG 8 related to decent work and economic growth. (shrink)

Every day, television news operations have available dozens of video news releases (VNRs), public relations handout videos designed to mimic news formats. Electronic tracking indicates some of these VNRs are used. Critics typically assail VNRs on ethical grounds, that VNRs deceive audience members into thinking they are watching news gathered by reporters, rather than a promotional pitch. Using a snowball technique, the researchers presented survey respondents with authentic-looking local television news stories; 157 respondents evaluated three stories (out of nine). Some (...) stories used station-generated footage, some network, and some VNRs. Respondents were asked their best estimation of the source. The data indicated a real likelihood VNR deception is occurring. Two of the three VNRs deceived at least half the respondents. Respondents were incorrect an average of 46% of the time when attempting to identifying VNRs, compared to 29% incorrectly identifying network video and 20% incorrectly identifying locally shot video. (shrink)

This study investigates whether the conscious awareness of action is based on predictive motor control processes, or on inferential “sense-making” process that occur after the action itself. We investigated whether the temporal binding between perceptual estimates of operant actions and their effects depends on the occurrence of the effect (inferential processes) or on the prediction that the effect will occur (predictive processes). By varying the probability with which a simple manual action produced an auditory effect, we showed that both the (...) actual and the predicted occurrence of the effect played a role. When predictability of the effect of action was low, temporal binding was found only on those trials where the auditory effect occurred. In contrast, when predictability of the effect of action was high, temporal binding occurred even on trials where the action produced no effect. Further analysis showed that the predictive process is modulated by recent experience of the action-effect relation. We conclude that the experience of action depends on a dynamic combination of predictive and inferential processes. (shrink)

The basic human ability to treat quantitative information can be divided into two parts. With proto-arithmetical ability, based on the core cognitive abilities for subitizing and estimation, numerosities can be treated in a limited and/or approximate manner. With arithmetical ability, numerosities are processed (counted, operated on) systematically in a discrete, linear, and unbounded manner. In this paper, I study the theory of enculturation as presented by Menary (2015) as a possible explanation of how we make the move from the (...) proto-arithmetical ability to arithmetic proper. I argue that enculturation based on neural reuse provides a theoretically sound and fruitful framework for explaining this development. However, I show that a comprehensive explanation must be based on valid theoretical distinctions and involve several stages in the development of arithmetical knowledge. I provide an account that meets these challenges and thus leads to a better understanding of the subject of enculturation. (shrink)