Results for 'Surprise'

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  1.  4
    Calculated Surprises: A Philosophy of Computer Simulation.Johannes Lenhard - 2019 - Oup Usa.
    Simulation modeling, the core thesis of Calculated Surprises, is transforming the established conception of mathematical modeling in fundamental ways. These transformations feed back into philosophy of science, opening up new perspectives on longstanding oppositions. The book integrates historical features with both practical case studies and broad reflections on science and technology.
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  2.  61
    Surprisal and Valuation in the Predictive Brain.Bryce Huebner - 2012 - Frontiers in Theoretical and Philosophical Psychology 3:415.
    Surprisal and Valuation in the Predictive Brain.
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  3. A Surprise for Horwich (and Some Advocates of the Fine-Tuning Argument (Which Does Not Include Horwich (as Far as I Know))).David Harker - 2012 - Philosophical Studies 161 (2):247-261.
    The judgment that a given event is epistemically improbable is necessary but insufficient for us to conclude that the event is surprising. Paul Horwich has argued that surprising events are, in addition, more probable given alternative background assumptions that are not themselves extremely improbable. I argue that Horwich’s definition fails to capture important features of surprises and offer an alternative definition that accords better with intuition. An important application of Horwich’s analysis has arisen in discussions of fine-tuning arguments. In the (...)
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  4.  45
    Surprised by a Nanowire: Simulation, Control, and Understanding.Johannes Lenhard - 2006 - Philosophy of Science 73 (5):605-616.
    This paper starts by looking at the coincidence of surprising behavior on the nanolevel in both matter and simulation. It uses this coincidence to argue that the simulation approach opens up a pragmatic mode of understanding oriented toward design rules and based on a new instrumental access to complex models. Calculations, and their variation by means of explorative numerical experimentation and visualization, can give a feeling for a model's behavior and the ability to control phenomena, even if the model itself (...)
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  5.  3
    Surprised by Joy: The Shape of My Early Life.C. S. Lewis - 1955 - Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.
    A repackaged edition of the revered author’s spiritual memoir, in which he recounts the story of his divine journey and eventual conversion to Christianity. C. S. Lewis—the great British writer, scholar, lay theologian, broadcaster, Christian apologist, and bestselling author of Mere Christianity, The Screwtape Letters, The Great Divorce, The Chronicles of Narnia, and many other beloved classics—takes readers on a spiritual journey through his early life and eventual embrace of the Christian faith. Lewis begins with his childhood in Belfast, surveys (...)
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  6.  87
    The Surprising Thing About Musical Surprise.Jenny Judge - 2018 - Analysis 78 (2):225-234.
    The experience of musical surprise is explained by psychologists in terms of the thwarting of prior musical expectations. The assumption that surprise is always caused by expectations is widespread not just in psychology at large, but also in philosophy. I argue here that this assumption is ill-founded. Many musical surprises, as well as many non-musical instances of perceptual surprise, can be explained by the falsification of assessments of the present, rendering the appeal to expectations unnecessary. I elaborate (...)
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  7.  38
    The Value of Surprise in Science.Steven French & Alice Murphy - forthcoming - Erkenntnis:1-20.
    Scientific results are often presented as ‘surprising’ as if that is a good thing. Is it? And if so, why? What is the value of surprise in science? Discussions of surprise in science have been limited, but surprise has been used as a way of defending the epistemic privilege of experiments over simulations. The argument is that while experiments can ‘confound’, simulations can merely surprise (Morgan 2005). Our aim in this paper is to show that the (...)
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  8. Surprising Connections Between Knowledge and Action: The Robustness of the Epistemic Side-Effect Effect.James R. Beebe & Mark Jensen - 2012 - Philosophical Psychology 25 (5):689 - 715.
    A number of researchers have begun to demonstrate that the widely discussed ?Knobe effect? (wherein participants are more likely to think that actions with bad side-effects are brought about intentionally than actions with good or neutral side-effects) can be found in theory of mind judgments that do not involve the concept of intentional action. In this article we report experimental results that show that attributions of knowledge can be influenced by the kinds of (non-epistemic) concerns that drive the Knobe effect. (...)
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  9.  32
    Surprise.Jonathan E. Adler - 2008 - Educational Theory 58 (2):149-173.
    Surprise is of great value for learning, especially in cases where deep‐seated preconceptions and assumptions are upset by vivid demonstrations. In this essay, Jonathan Adler explores the ways in which surprise positively affects us and serves as a valuable tool for motivating learning. Adler considers how students’ attention is aroused and focused self‐critically when their subject matter–related expectations are not borne out. These “surprises” point students toward discoveries about gaps or weaknesses or false assumptions within their subject matter (...)
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  10.  86
    Surprise, Surprise.Daniel C. Dennett - 2001 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 24 (5):982-982.
    The authors show that some long-standing confusions and problems can be avoided by thinking of perception in terms of sensorimotor contingencies, a close kin to my heterophenomenological approach (Dennett 1991). However, their claim that subjects do not have any commitments about the resolution of their visual fields is belied by the surprise routinely expressed by subjects when this is demonstrated to them.
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  11. The Surprise Examination in Dynamic Epistemic Logic.J. Gerbrandy - 2007 - Synthese 155 (1):21-33.
    We examine the paradox of the surprise examination using dynamic epistemic logic. This logic contains means of expressing epistemic facts as well as the effects of learning new facts, and is therefore a natural framework for representing the puzzle. We discuss a number of different interpretations of the puzzle in this context, and show how the failure of principle of success, that states that sentences, when learned, remain to be true and come to be believed, plays a central role (...)
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  12.  15
    Surprise, Recipes for Surprise, and Social Influence.Jeffrey Loewenstein - 2019 - Topics in Cognitive Science 11 (1):178-193.
    Surprising people can provide an opening for influencing them. Surprises garner attention, are arousing, are memorable, and can prompt shifts in understanding. Less noted is that, as a result, surprises can serve to persuade others by leading them to shifts in attitudes. Furthermore, because stories, pictures, and music can generate surprises and those can be widely shared, surprise can have broad social influence. People also tend to share surprising items with others, as anyone on social media has discovered. This (...)
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  13.  53
    Surprise, Surprise: KK is Innocent.Julien Murzi, Leonie Eichhorn & Philipp Mayr - 2021 - Thought: A Journal of Philosophy 10 (1):4-18.
    The Surprise Exam Paradox is well-known: a teacher announces that there will be a surprise exam the following week; the students argue by an intuitively sound reasoning that this is impossible; and yet they can be surprised by the teacher. We suggest that a solution can be found scattered in the literature, in part anticipated by Wright and Sudbury, informally developed by Sorensen, and more recently discussed, and dismissed, by Williamson. In a nutshell, the solution consists in realising (...)
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  14.  18
    Surprise” and the Bayesian Brain: Implications for Psychotherapy Theory and Practice.Jeremy Holmes & Tobias Nolte - 2019 - Frontiers in Psychology 10.
  15.  41
    The Surprising Truth About Disagreement.Neil Levy - 2021 - Acta Analytica 36 (2):137-157.
    Conciliationism—the thesis that when epistemic peers discover that they disagree about a proposition, both should reduce their confidence—faces a major objection: it seems to require us to significantly reduce our confidence in our central moral and political commitments. In this paper, I develop a typology of disagreement cases and a diagnosis of the source and force of the pressure to conciliate. Building on Vavova’s work, I argue that ordinary and extreme disagreements are surprising, and for this reason, they carry information (...)
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  16.  12
    Surprise: An Emotion?Anthony Steinbock & Natalie Depraz (eds.) - 2018 - Springer Verlag.
    This volume offers perspectives on the theme of surprise crossing philosophical, phenomenological, scientific, psycho-physiology, psychiatric, and linguistic boundaries. The main question it examines is whether surprise is an emotion. It uses two main theoretical frameworks to do so: psychology, in which surprise is commonly considered a primary emotion, and philosophy, in which surprise is related to passions as opposed to reason. The book explores whether these views on surprise are satisfying or sufficient. It looks at (...)
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  17. Philosophical Intuitions Are Surprisingly Robust Across Demographic Differences.Joshua Knobe - 2019 - Epistemology and Philosophy of Science 56 (2):29-36.
    Within the existing metaphilosophical literature on experimental philosophy, a great deal of attention has been devoted to the claim that there are large differences in philosophical intuitions between people of different demographic groups. Some philosophers argue that this claim has important metaphilosophical implications; others argue that it does not. However, the actual empirical work within experimental philosophy seems to point to a very different sort of metaphilosophical question. Specifically, what the actual empirical work suggests is that intuitions are surprisingly robust (...)
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  18.  25
    Some Surprising Facts About Surprising Facts.D. Mayo - 2014 - Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 45:79-86.
    A common intuition about evidence is that if data x have been used to construct a hypothesis H, then x should not be used again in support of H. It is no surprise that x fits H, if H was deliberately constructed to accord with x. The question of when and why we should avoid such “double-counting” continues to be debated in philosophy and statistics. It arises as a prohibition against data mining, hunting for significance, tuning on the signal, (...)
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  19. The Surprise Examination in Modal Logic.Robert Binkley - 1968 - Journal of Philosophy 65 (5):127-136.
  20.  8
    Surprise, Curiosity, and Confusion Promote Knowledge Exploration: Evidence for Robust Effects of Epistemic Emotions.Elisabeth Vogl, Reinhard Pekrun, Kou Murayama, Kristina Loderer & Sandra Schubert - 2019 - Frontiers in Psychology 10.
  21.  67
    No Surprises.Ian Wells - 2021 - Erkenntnis 86 (2):389-406.
    The surprise exam paradox is an apparently sound argument to the apparently absurd conclusion that a surprise exam cannot be given within a finite exam period. A closer look at the logic of the paradox shows the argument breaking down immediately. So why do the beginning stages of the argument appear sound in the first place? This paper presents an account of the paradox on which its allure is rooted in a common probabilistic mistake: the base rate fallacy. (...)
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  22. A Nice Surprise? Predictive Processing and the Active Pursuit of Novelty.Andy Clark - 2018 - Phenomenology and the Cognitive Sciences 17 (3):521-534.
    Recent work in cognitive and computational neuroscience depicts human brains as devices that minimize prediction error signals: signals that encode the difference between actual and expected sensory stimulations. This raises a series of puzzles whose common theme concerns a potential misfit between this bedrock informationtheoretic vision and familiar facts about the attractions of the unexpected. We humans often seem to actively seek out surprising events, deliberately harvesting novel and exciting streams of sensory stimulation. Conversely, we often experience some wellexpected sensations (...)
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  23. The Cognitive Structure of Surprise: Looking for Basic Principles.Emiliano Lorini & Cristiano Castelfranchi - 2007 - Topoi 26 (1):133-149.
    We develop a conceptual and formal clarification of notion of surprise as a belief-based phenomenon by exploring a rich typology. Each kind of surprise is associated with a particular phase of cognitive processing and involves particular kinds of epistemic representations (representations and expectations under scrutiny, implicit beliefs, presuppositions). We define two main kinds of surprise: mismatch-based surprise and astonishment. In the central part of the paper we suggest how a formal model of surprise can be (...)
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  24.  33
    The Surprise of a Breast Reconstruction: A Longitudinal Phenomenological Study to Women’s Expectations About Reconstructive Surgery.Marjolein de Boer, René van der Hulst & Jenny Slatman - 2015 - Human Studies 38 (3):409-430.
    While having a breast reconstruction, women have certain expectations about their future breasted bodies. The aim of this paper is to describe and analyze these expectations in the process of reconstruction. By applying a qualitative, phenomenological study within a longitudinal research design, this paper acknowledges the temporarily complex, contextualized, embodied, and subjective nature of the phenomenon of expectations. The analysis identified expectations regarding three different aspects of women’s embodiment: their gazed body, their capable/practical body, and their felt body. After reconstruction, (...)
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  25. The Surprise Exam Paradox: A Note on Formulating It and a Solution to It.Terence Rajivan Edward - 2019 - Ethos: Dialogues in Philosophy and Social Sciences 12 (2):181-186.
    Some formulations of the surprise paradox involve a pair of unnecessary and controversial assumptions. After casting doubt on these assumptions, I propose a solution to the paradox.
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  26.  35
    Greatest Surprise Reduction Semantics: An Information Theoretic Solution to Misrepresentation and Disjunction.D. E. Weissglass - 2020 - Philosophical Studies 177 (8):2185-2205.
    Causal theories of content, a popular family of approaches to defining the content of mental states, commonly run afoul of two related and serious problems that prevent them from providing an adequate theory of mental content—the misrepresentation problem and the disjunction problem. In this paper, I present a causal theory of content, built on information theoretic tools, that solves these problems and provides a viable model of mental content. This is the greatest surprise reduction theory of content, which identifies (...)
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  27.  40
    Surprising Empirical Directions for Thomistic Moral Psychology: Social Information Processing and Aggression Research.Anne Jeffrey & Krista Mehari - 2022 - American Catholic Philosophical Quarterly 96 (2):263-289.
    One of the major contemporary challenges to Thomistic moral psychology is that it is incompatible with the most up-to-date psychological science. Here Thomistic psychology is in good company, targeted along with most virtue-ethical views by philosophical situationism, which uses replicated psychological studies to suggest that our behaviors are best explained by situational pressures rather than by stable traits (like virtues and vices). In this essay we explain how this body of psychological research poses a much deeper threat to Thomistic moral (...)
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  28.  18
    Surprisingly Rational: Probability Theory Plus Noise Explains Biases in Judgment.Fintan Costello & Paul Watts - 2014 - Psychological Review 121 (3):463-480.
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  29.  3
    Artefacts, Surprise and Managing During Disaster: Object-Oriented Ontological and Assemblage-Theoretic Insights.James Reveley - 2020 - Philosophy of Management 19 (4):427-445.
    Despite the applicability of assemblage theory to extreme events, the relational ontology that assemblage thinkers employ makes it hard to ground the potential of artefacts to undergo substantial change. To better understand how artefacts can be unexpectedly destroyed, and thereby catch managers by surprise, this article draws on Graham Harman’s object-oriented ontology. This approach is used to explain how artefacts, as concrete objects, have the capacity both to cause and to exacerbate calamities. By contrast, assemblage theory is shown to (...)
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  30.  29
    A Surprising Source of Self-Motivation: Prior Competence Frustration Strengthens One’s Motivation to Win in Another Competence-Supportive Activity.Hui Fang, Bin He, Huijian Fu, Huijun Zhang, Zan Mo & Liang Meng - 2018 - Frontiers in Human Neuroscience 12.
  31. Surprise, Self-Knowledge, and Commonality.Frederic Schick - 2000 - Journal of Philosophy 97 (8):440.
  32.  26
    Surprises: Low Probabilities or High Contrasts?Karl Halvor Teigen & Gideon Keren - 2003 - Cognition 87 (2):55-71.
  33.  34
    Some Surprising Implications of Negative Retributivism.Richard L. Lippke - 2014 - Journal of Applied Philosophy 31 (1):49-62.
    Negative retributivism is the view that though the primary justifying aim of legal punishment is the reduction of crime, the state's efforts to do so are subject to side-constraints that forbid punishment of the innocent and disproportionate punishment of the guilty. I contend that insufficient attention has been paid to what the side-constraints commit us to in constructing a theory of legal punishment, even one primarily oriented toward reducing crime. Specifically, I argue that the side-constraints limit the kinds of actions (...)
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  34. New Surprises for the Ramsey Test.Malte Willer - 2010 - Synthese 176 (2):291 - 309.
    In contemporary discussions of the Ramsey Test for conditionals, it is commonly held that (i) supposing the antecedent of a conditional is adopting a potential state of full belief, and (ii) Modus Ponens is a valid rule of inference. I argue on the basis of Thomason Conditionals (such as ' If Sally is deceiving, I do not believe it') and Moore's Paradox that both claims are wrong. I then develop a double-indexed Update Semantics for conditionals which takes these two results (...)
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  35. What Makes Something Surprising?Dan Baras & Oded Na’Aman - forthcoming - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research.
    Surprises are important in our everyday lives as well as in our scientific and philosophical theorizing—in psychology, information theory, cognitive-neuroscience, philosophy of science, and confirmation theory. Nevertheless, there is no satisfactory theory of what makes something surprising. It has long been acknowledged that not everything unexpected is surprising. The reader had no reason to expect that there will be exactly 190 words in this abstract and yet there is nothing surprising about this fact. We offer a novel theory that explains (...)
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  36.  38
    La surprise comme mesure de l'empiricité des simulations computationnelles.Franck Varenne - 2015 - In Natalie Depraz & Claudia Serban (eds.), La surprise. A l'épreuve des langues. Paris: Hermann. pp. 199-217.
    This chapter elaborates and develops the thesis originally put forward by Mary Morgan (2005) that some mathematical models may surprise us, but that none of them can completely confound us, i.e. let us unable to produce an ex post theoretical understanding of the outcome of the model calculations. This chapter intends to object and demonstrate that what is certainly true of classical mathematical models is however not true of pluri-formalized simulations with multiple axiomatic bases. This chapter thus proposes to (...)
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  37. Philosophical Intuitions Are Surprisingly Stable Across Both Demographic Groups and Situations.Joshua Knobe - 2021 - Filozofia Nauki 29 (2):11-76.
  38.  57
    Weighting Surprise Parties: Some Problems for Schroeder.Olle Risberg - 2016 - Utilitas 28 (1):101-107.
    In this article I argue against Schroeder's account of the weight of normative reasons. It is shown that in certain cases an agent may have reasons she cannot know about without them ceasing to be reasons, and also reasons she cannot know about at all. Both possibilities are troubling for Schroeder's view.
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  39.  10
    Surprise! 20-Month-Old Infants Understand the Emotional Consequences of False Beliefs.Rose M. Scott - 2017 - Cognition 159:33-47.
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  40.  63
    Surprisingly Small Subcortical Structures Are Needed for the State of Waking Consciousness, While Cortical Projection Areas Seem to Provide Perceptual Contents of Consciousness.Bernard J. Baars - 1995 - Consciousness and Cognition 4 (2):159-62.
  41.  11
    Surprise as an Explanation to Auditory Novelty Distraction and Post-Error Slowing.Fabrice B. R. Parmentier, Martin R. Vasilev & Pilar Andrés - 2019 - Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 148 (1):192-200.
  42. How to Expect a Surprising Exam.Brian Kim & Anubav Vasudevan - 2017 - Synthese 194 (8):3101-3133.
    In this paper, we provide a Bayesian analysis of the well-known surprise exam paradox. Central to our analysis is a probabilistic account of what it means for the student to accept the teacher's announcement that he will receive a surprise exam. According to this account, the student can be said to have accepted the teacher's announcement provided he adopts a subjective probability distribution relative to which he expects to receive the exam on a day on which he expects (...)
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  43. The Solution to the Surprise Exam Paradox.Ken Levy - 2009 - Southern Journal of Philosophy 47 (2):131-158.
    The Surprise Exam Paradox continues to perplex and torment despite the many solutions that have been offered. This paper proposes to end the intrigue once and for all by refuting one of the central pillars of the Surprise Exam Paradox, the 'No Friday Argument,' which concludes that an exam given on the last day of the testing period cannot be a surprise. This refutation consists of three arguments, all of which are borrowed from the literature: the 'Unprojectible (...)
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  44.  23
    False Precision, Surprise and Improved Uncertainty Assessment.Wendy S. Parker & James S. Risbey - 2015 - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 373 (2055):20140453.
    An uncertainty report describes the extent of an agent’s uncertainty about some matter. We identify two basic requirements for uncertainty reports, which we call faithfulness and completeness. We then discuss two pitfalls of uncertainty assessment that often result in reports that fail to meet these requirements. The first involves adopting a one-size-fits-all approach to the representation of uncertainty, while the second involves failing to take account of the risk of surprises. In connection with the latter, we respond to the objection (...)
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  45. The Surprise Twist in Hume’s Treatise.Stephen M. Campbell - 2009 - Hume Studies 35 (1-2):103-34.
    A Treatise of Human Nature opens with ambitious hopes for the science of man, but Hume eventually launches into a series of skeptical arguments that culminates in a report of radical skeptical despair. This essay is a preliminary exploration of how to interpret this surprising development. I first distinguish two kinds of surprise twist: those that are incompatible with some preceding portion of the work, and those that are not. This suggests two corresponding pictures of Hume. On one picture, (...)
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  46. Surprise.R. Reisenzein, W. U. Meyer & M. Niepel - 2009 - In David Sander & Klaus R. Scherer (eds.), The Oxford Companion to Emotion and the Affective Sciences. Oxford University Press. pp. 386--387.
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  47.  31
    The Argument From Surprise.Adrian Currie - 2018 - Canadian Journal of Philosophy 48 (5):639-661.
    I develop an account of productive surprise as an epistemic virtue of scientific investigations which does not turn on psychology alone. On my account, a scientific investigation is potentially productively surprising when results can conflict with epistemic expectations, those expectations pertain to a wide set of subjects. I argue that there are two sources of such surprise in science. One source, often identified with experiments, involves bringing our theoretical ideas in contact with new empirical observations. Another, often identified (...)
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  48.  26
    Surprisal-Based Comparison Between a Symbolic and a Connectionist Model of Sentence Processing.Stefan L. Frank - 2009 - In N. A. Taatgen & H. van Rijn (eds.), Proceedings of the 31st Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society. pp. 1139--1144.
  49.  8
    Surprise Capture and Inattentional Blindness.Gernot Horstmann & Ulrich Ansorge - 2016 - Cognition 157:237-249.
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  50. The Surprise Exam Paradox, Rationality, and Pragmatics: A Simple Game‐Theoretic Analysis.José Luis Ferreira & Jesús Zamora Bonilla - 2008 - Journal of Economic Methodology 15 (3):285-299.
    The surprise exam paradox has attracted the attention of prominent logicians, mathematicians and philosophers for decades. Although the paradox itself has been resolved at least since Quine, some aspects of it are still being discussed. In this paper we propose, following Sober, to translate the paradox into the language of game theory to clarify these aspects. Our main conclusions are that a much simpler game?theoretic analysis of the paradox is possible, which solves most of the puzzles related to it, (...)
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