Results for 'Mental probability logic'

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  1. On Mental Probability Logic.Niki Pfeifer - 2006 - Dissertation, Department of Psychology, University of Salzburg
    Mental probability logic is a psychological competence theory about how humans interpret and reason about common-sense conditionals. Probability logic is proposed as an appropriate standard of reference for evaluating the rationality of human inferences. Common-sense conditionals are interpreted as “high” conditional probabilities, P(B|A) > .5. Probability logical accounts of nonmonotonic reasoning and inference rules like the modus ponens are explored. Categorical syllogisms with comparative and quantitative quantifiers are investigated. A series of eight experiments on (...)
     
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  2. The conditional in mental probability logic.Niki Pfeifer & G. D. Kleiter - 2010 - In M. Oaksford & N. Chater (eds.), Cognition and Conditionals: Probability and Logic in Human Thought. Oxford University Press. pp. 153--173.
    The present chapter describes a probabilistic framework of human reasoning. It is based on probability logic. While there are several approaches to probability logic, we adopt the coherence based approach.
     
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  3.  89
    Mental probability logic.Niki Pfeifer & Gernot D. Kleiter - 2009 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 32 (1):98-99.
    We discuss O&C's probabilistic approach from a probability logical point of view. Specifically, we comment on subjective probability, the indispensability of logic, the Ramsey test, the consequence relation, human nonmonotonic reasoning, intervals, generalized quantifiers, and rational analysis.
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  4. Towards a mental probability logic.Niki Pfeifer & G. D. Kleiter - 2005 - Psychologica Belgica 45 (1):71--99.
    We propose probability logic as an appropriate standard of reference for evaluating human inferences. Probability logical accounts of nonmonotonic reasoning with system p, and conditional syllogisms (modus ponens, etc.) are explored. Furthermore, we present categorical syllogisms with intermediate quantifiers, like the “most . . . ” quantifier. While most of the paper is theoretical and intended to stimulate psychological studies, we summarize our empirical studies on human nonmonotonic reasoning.
     
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  5. The new psychology of reasoning: A mental probability logical perspective.Niki Pfeifer - 2013 - Thinking and Reasoning 19 (3-4):329-345.
  6. The conditional in mental probability logic.Niki Pfeifer & Kleiter & Gernot - 2010 - In Mike Oaksford & Nick Chater (eds.), Cognition and Conditionals: Probability and Logic in Human Thinking. Oxford University Press.
  7.  36
    Naive probability: A mental model theory of extensional reasoning.Philip Johnson-Laird, Paolo Legrenzi, Vittorio Girotto, Maria Sonino Legrenzi & Jean-Paul Caverni - 1999 - Psychological Review 106 (1):62-88.
    This article outlines a theory of naive probability. According to the theory, individuals who are unfamiliar with the probability calculus can infer the probabilities of events in an extensional way: They construct mental models of what is true in the various possibilities. Each model represents an equiprobable alternative unless individuals have beliefs to the contrary, in which case some models will have higher probabilities than others. The probability of an event depends on the proportion of models (...)
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  8. Human reasoning with imprecise probabilities: Modus ponens and Denying the antecedent.Niki Pfeifer & G. D. Kleiter - 2007 - In Proceedings of the 5 T H International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications. pp. 347--356.
    The modus ponens (A -> B, A :. B) is, along with modus tollens and the two logically not valid counterparts denying the antecedent (A -> B, ¬A :. ¬B) and affirming the consequent, the argument form that was most often investigated in the psychology of human reasoning. The present contribution reports the results of three experiments on the probabilistic versions of modus ponens and denying the antecedent. In probability logic these arguments lead to conclusions with imprecise probabilities. (...)
     
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  9. Human reasoning includes a mental logic.David P. O'Brien - 2009 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 32 (1):96-97.
    Oaksford & Chater (O&C) have rejected logic in favor of probability theory for reasons that are irrelevant to mental-logic theory, because mental-logic theory differs from standard logic in significant ways. Similar to O&C, mental-logic theory rejects the use of the material conditional and deals with the completeness problem by limiting the scope of its procedures to local sets of propositions.
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  10.  22
    Interpreting Probability: Controversies and Developments in the Early Twentieth Century.David Howie - 2002 - Cambridge University Press.
    The term probability can be used in two main senses. In the frequency interpretation it is a limiting ratio in a sequence of repeatable events. In the Bayesian view, probability is a mental construct representing uncertainty. This 2002 book is about these two types of probability and investigates how, despite being adopted by scientists and statisticians in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, Bayesianism was discredited as a theory of scientific inference during the 1920s and 1930s. Through (...)
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  11. The mental logic theory of conditional propositions.David O'Brien & Manfrinati & Andrea - 2010 - In Mike Oaksford & Nick Chater (eds.), Cognition and Conditionals: Probability and Logic in Human Thinking. Oxford University Press.
  12. Hermann Vetter.Logical Probability - 1970 - In Paul Weingartner & Gerhard Zecha (eds.), Induction, physics, and ethics. Dordrecht,: Reidel. pp. 75.
     
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  13.  25
    Do nonlinguistic creatures deploy mental symbols for logical connectives in reasoning?Susan Carey - 2023 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 46:e267.
    Some nonlinguistic systems of representation display some of the six features of a language-of-thought (LoT) delineated by Quilty-Dunn et al. But they conjecture something stronger: That all six features cooccur homeostatically in nonlinguistic thought. Here I argue that there is no good evidence for nonlinguistic deductive reasoning involving the disjunctive syllogism. Animals and prelinguistic children probably do not make logical inferences.
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  14.  69
    Probability Judgements about Indicative Conditionals: An Erotetic Theory.Sam Carter - 2016 - Logic Journal of the IGPL 24 (4).
    Research into the cognition of conditionals has predominantly focused on conditional reasoning, producing a range of theories which explain associated phenomena with considerable success. However, such theories have been less successful in accommodating experimental data concerning how agents assess the probability of indicative conditionals. Since an acceptable account of conditional reasoning should be compatible with evidence regarding how we evaluate conditionals’ likelihoods, this constitutes a failing of such theories. Section 1 introduces the most dominant established approach to conditional reasoning: (...)
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  15.  22
    Language, logic, and causation: philosophical writings of Douglas Gasking.Tim Oakley & L. J. O'Neill (eds.) - 1996 - Melbourne, Australia: Melbourne University Press.
    This volume is a collection of ten essays by Douglas Gasking (1911–1994), a significant figure in Australian philosophy. There are three previously published papers, “Mathematics and the World” (proposing a form of conventionalism), “Causation and Recipes” (expounding a manipulation account of causation), and “Clusters”, (an account of certain varieties of class-membership). The seven previously unpublished papers include further work on causation, some epistemological issues, subjective probability, a carefully worked out account of the sense in which observable behaviour can be (...)
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  16. Husserl’s Concept of Motivation: The Logical Investigations and Beyond.Philip J. Walsh - 2013 - History of Philosophy & Logical Analysis 16 (1):70-83.
    Husserl introduces a phenomenological concept called “motivation” early in the First Investigation of his magnum opus, the Logical Investigations. The importance of this concept has been overlooked since Husserl passes over it rather quickly on his way to an analysis of the meaningful nature of expression. I argue, however, that motivation is essential to Husserl’s overall project, even if it is not essen- tial for defining expression in the First Investigation. For Husserl, motivation is a relation between mental acts (...)
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  17. Mental causation and the supervenience argument.Jürgen Schröder - 2007 - Erkenntnis 67 (2):221 - 237.
    One of several problems concerning the possibility of mental causation is that the causal potential of a supervenient property seems to be absorbed by its supervenience base if that base and the supervenient property are not identical. If the causal powers of the supervenient property are a proper subset of the causal powers of the supervenience base then, according to the causal individuation of properties, the supervenience base seems to do all the causal work and the supervenient property appears (...)
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  18. Uncertain deductive reasoning.Niki Pfeifer & G. D. Kleiter - 2011 - In K. Manktelow, D. E. Over & S. Elqayam (eds.), The Science of Reason: A Festschrift for Jonathan St B.T. Evans. Psychology Press. pp. 145--166.
    Probabilistic models have started to replace classical logic as the standard reference paradigm in human deductive reasoning. Mental probability logic emphasizes general principles where human reasoning deviates from classical logic, but agrees with a probabilistic approach (like nonmonotonicity or the conditional event interpretation of conditionals). -/- This contribution consists of two parts. In the first part we discuss general features of reasoning systems including consequence relations, how uncertainty may enter argument forms, probability intervals, and (...)
     
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  19.  1
    On the probabilistic character of irreducible mental causation.Dejan R. Dimitrijević - 2024 - Synthese 203 (6):1-27.
    It has recently been remarked that the argument for physicalism from the causal closure of the physical is incomplete. It is only effective against mental causation manifested in the action of putative mental forces that lead to acceleration of particles in the nervous system. Based on consideration of anomalous, physically unaccounted-for correlations of neural events, I argue that irreducible mental causation whose nature is at least prima facie probabilistic is conceivable. The manifestation of such causation should be (...)
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  20.  11
    From arithmetic to metaphysics: a path through philosophical logic.Ciro de Florio, Alessandro Giordani & Sergio Galvan (eds.) - 2018 - Berlin: De Gruyter.
    Published in honor of Sergio Galvan, this collection concentrates on the application of logical and mathematical methods for the study of central issues in formal philosophy. The volume is subdivided into four sections, dedicated to logic and philosophy of logic, philosophy of mathematics, philosophy of science, metaphysics and philosophy of religion. The contributions adress, from a logical point of view, some of the main topics in these areas. The first two sections include formal treatments of: truth and paradoxes; (...)
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  21.  27
    From Arithmetic to Metaphysics: A Path Through Philosophical Logic.Alessandro Giordani & Ciro de Florio (eds.) - 2018 - De Gruyter.
    Published in honor of Sergio Galvan, this collection concentrates on the application of logical and mathematical methods for the study of central issues in formal philosophy. The volume is subdivided into four sections, dedicated to logic and philosophy of logic, philosophy of mathematics, philosophy of science, metaphysics and philosophy of religion. The contributions adress, from a logical point of view, some of the main topics in these areas. The first two sections include formal treatments of: truth and paradoxes; (...)
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  22.  96
    Probabilistic Knowledge.Sarah Moss - 2018 - Oxford, United Kingdom: Oxford University Press.
    Traditional philosophical discussions of knowledge have focused on the epistemic status of full beliefs. In this book, Moss argues that in addition to full beliefs, credences can constitute knowledge. For instance, your .4 credence that it is raining outside can constitute knowledge, in just the same way that your full beliefs can. In addition, you can know that it might be raining, and that if it is raining then it is probably cloudy, where this knowledge is not knowledge of propositions, (...)
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  23.  20
    Jon Williamson.Probability Logic - 2002 - In Dov M. Gabbay (ed.), Handbook of the Logic of Argument and Inference: The Turn Towards the Practical. Elsevier. pp. 397.
  24. Probability logic.Niki Pfeifer - forthcoming - In M. Knauff & Wolfgang Spohn (eds.), Handbook of Rationality. Cambridge, MA, USA:
    This chapter presents probability logic as a rationality framework for human reasoning under uncertainty. Selected formal-normative aspects of probability logic are discussed in the light of experimental evidence. Specifically, probability logic is characterized as a generalization of bivalent truth-functional propositional logic (short “logic”), as being connexive, and as being nonmonotonic. The chapter discusses selected argument forms and associated uncertainty propagation rules. Throughout the chapter, the descriptive validity of probability logic is (...)
     
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  25.  19
    Degradation in Probability Logic : When more Information Leads to Less Precise Conclusions.Christian Wallmann & Gernot Kleiter - unknown
    Probability logic studies the properties resulting from the probabilistic interpretation of logical argument forms. Typical examples are probabilistic Modus Ponens and Modus Tollens. Argument forms with two premises usually lead from precise probabilities of the premises to imprecise or interval probabilities of the conclusion. In the contribution, we study generalized inference forms having three or more premises. Recently, Gilio has shown that these generalized forms ``degrade'' -- more premises lead to more imprecise conclusions, i. e., to wider intervals. (...)
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  26. Semantic memory retrieval, mental models, and the development of conditional inferences in children.Henry Markovits - 2010 - In Mike Oaksford & Nick Chater (eds.), Cognition and Conditionals: Probability and Logic in Human Thinking. Oxford University Press.
     
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  27. Towards a reconciliation of mental model theory and probabilistic theories.Sonja Geiger & Oberauer & Klaus - 2010 - In Mike Oaksford & Nick Chater (eds.), Cognition and Conditionals: Probability and Logic in Human Thinking. Oxford University Press.
     
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  28.  79
    A Primer of Probability Logic.Ernest Wilcox Adams - 1996 - Center for the Study of Language and Inf.
    This book is meant to be a primer, that is, an introduction, to probability logic, a subject that appears to be in its infancy. Probability logic is a subject envisioned by Hans Reichenbach and largely created by Adams. It treats conditionals as bearers of conditional probabilities and discusses an appropriate sense of validity for arguments such conditionals, as well as ordinary statements as premisses. This is a clear well-written text on the subject of probability (...), suitable for advanced undergraduates or graduates, but also of interest to professional philosophers. There are well-thought-out exercises, and a number of advanced topics treated in appendices, while some are brought up in exercises and some are alluded to only in footnotes. By this means, it is hoped that the reader will at least be made aware of most of the important ramifications of the subject and its tie-ins with current research, and will have some indications concerning recent and relevant literature. (shrink)
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  29.  13
    Exchangeability in Probability Logic.Christian Wallmann & Gernot Kleiter - unknown
    The paper investigates exchangeability in the context of probability logic. We study generalizations of basic inference rules and inferences involving cardinalities. We compare the results with those obtained in the case in which only identical probabilities are assumed.
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  30.  88
    Probability logic of finitely additive beliefs.Chunlai Zhou - 2010 - Journal of Logic, Language and Information 19 (3):247-282.
    Probability logics have been an active topic of investigation of beliefs in type spaces in game theoretical economics. Beliefs are expressed as subjective probability measures. Savage’s postulates in decision theory imply that subjective probability measures are not necessarily countably additive but finitely additive. In this paper, we formulate a probability logic Σ + that is strongly complete with respect to this class of type spaces with finitely additive probability measures, i.e. a set of formulas (...)
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  31. Probability logic, logical probability, and inductive support.Isaac Levi - 2010 - Synthese 172 (1):97-118.
    This paper seeks to defend the following conclusions: The program advanced by Carnap and other necessarians for probability logic has little to recommend it except for one important point. Credal probability judgments ought to be adapted to changes in evidence or states of full belief in a principled manner in conformity with the inquirer’s confirmational commitments—except when the inquirer has good reason to modify his or her confirmational commitment. Probability logic ought to spell out the (...)
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  32. Probability, logic, and probability logic.Alan Hójek - 2001 - In Lou Goble (ed.), The Blackwell Guide to Philosophical Logic. Oxford, UK: Blackwell. pp. 362--384.
    Probability logic’ might seem like an oxymoron. Logic traditionally concerns matters immutable, necessary and certain, while probability concerns the uncertain, the random, the capricious. Yet our subject has a distinguished pedigree. Ramsey begins his classic “Truth and Probability” with the words: “In this essay the Theory of Probability is taken as a branch of logic. … “speaks of “the logic of the probable.” And more recently, regards probabilities as estimates of truth values, (...)
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  33. A probability logical interpretation of fallacies.Niki Pfeifer - 2008 - In G. Kreuzbauer, N. Gratzl & E. Hiebl (eds.), Rhetorische Wissenschaft: Rede Und Argumentation in Theorie Und Praxis. Lit. pp. 225--244.
    This chapter presents a probability logical approach to fallacies. A special interpretation of (subjective) probability is used, which is based on coherence. Coherence provides not only a foundation of probability theory, but also a normative standard of reference for distinguishing fallacious from non-fallacious arguments. The violation of coherence is sufficient for an argument to be fallacious. The inherent uncertainty of everyday life argumentation is captured by attaching degrees of belief to the premises. Probability logic analyzes (...)
     
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  34.  9
    Probability Theory and Probability Logic.Peter Roeper & Hugues Leblanc - 1999 - University of Toronto Press.
    As a survey of many technical results in probability theory and probability logic, this monograph by two widely respected scholars offers a valuable compendium of the principal aspects of the formal study of probability. Hugues Leblanc and Peter Roeper explore probability functions appropriate for propositional, quantificational, intuitionistic, and infinitary logic and investigate the connections among probability functions, semantics, and logical consequence. They offer a systematic justification of constraints for various types of probability (...)
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  35.  47
    Probability logic and combining evidence.Theodore Hailperin - 2006 - History and Philosophy of Logic 27 (3):249-269.
    In Hailperin 1996 , in addition to its formal development of Probability Logic, there are many sections devoted to historical origins, illustrative examples, and discussion of related work by other authors. Here selected portions of its formal treatment are summarized and then used as a basis for a probability logic treatment of combining evidence.
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  36.  91
    The Price of Non‐Reductive Physicalism.Ralph Wedgwood - 2000 - Noûs 34 (3):400-421.
    Nonreductive physicalism faces a serious objection: physicalism entails the existence of an enormous number of modal facts--specifically, facts about exactly which physical properties necessitate each mental property; and, it seems, if mental properties are irreducible, these modal facts cannot all be satisfactorily explained. The only answer to this objection is to claim that the explanations of these modal facts are themselves contingent. This claim requires rejecting "S5" as the appropriate logic for metaphysical modality. Finally, it is argued (...)
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  37.  66
    Quantifier probability logic and the confirmation paradox.Theodore Hailperin - 2007 - History and Philosophy of Logic 28 (1):83-100.
    Exhumation and study of the 1945 paradox of confirmation brings out the defect of its formulation. In the context of quantifier conditional-probability logic it is shown that a repair can be accomplished if the truth-functional conditional used in the statement of the paradox is replaced with a connective that is appropriate to the probabilistic context. Description of the quantifier probability logic involved in the resolution of the paradox is presented in stages. Careful distinction is maintained between (...)
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  38.  34
    Probability Logic and Borel's Denumerable Probability.Theodore Hailperin - 2008 - History and Philosophy of Logic 29 (3):307-307.
    Borel's concept of denumerable probability is described by means of three of his illustrative problems and their solution. These problems are then reformulated in contemporary terms and solved from the viewpoint of probability logic. A section compares Kolmogorov set-theoretic probability with probability logic. The concluding section describes a highly adverse criticism of Borel's conception for its not using something like Kolmogorov theory (introduced two decades later) and, in support of Borel, this criticism is countered (...)
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  39.  57
    Probability logic in the twentieth century.Theodore Hailperin - 1991 - History and Philosophy of Logic 12 (1):71-110.
    This essay describes a variety of contributions which relate to the connection of probability with logic. Some are grand attempts at providing a logical foundation for probability and inductive inference. Others are concerned with probabilistic inference or, more generally, with the transmittance of probability through the structure (logical syntax) of language. In this latter context probability is considered as a semantic notion playing the same role as does truth value in conventional logic. At the (...)
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  40. Inference in conditional probability logic.Niki Pfeifer & Gernot Kleiter - 2006 - Kybernetika 42 (2):391--404.
    An important field of probability logic is the investigation of inference rules that propagate point probabilities or, more generally, interval probabilities from premises to conclusions. Conditional probability logic (CPL) interprets the common sense expressions of the form “if . . . , then . . . ” by conditional probabilities and not by the probability of the material implication. An inference rule is probabilistically informative if the coherent probability interval of its conclusion is not (...)
     
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  41.  78
    Probability logic.John P. Burgess - 1969 - Journal of Symbolic Logic 34 (2):264-274.
    In this paper we introduce a system S5U, formed by adding to the modal system S5 a new connective U, Up being read “probably”. A few theorems are derived in S5U, and the system is provided with a decision procedure. Several decidable extensions of S5U are discussed, and probability logic is related to plurality quantification.
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  42.  7
    When nomenclature matters: Is the “new paradigm” really a new paradigm for the psychology of reasoning?Markus Knauff & Lupita Estefania Gazzo Castañeda - 2023 - Thinking and Reasoning 29 (3):341-370.
    For most of its history, the psychology of reasoning was dominated by binary extensional logic. The so-called “new paradigm” instead puts subjective degrees of belief center stage, often represented as probabilities. We argue that the “new paradigm” is too vaguely defined and therefore does not allow a clear decision about what falls within its scope and what does not. We also show that there was not one settled theoretical “old” paradigm, before the new developments emerged, and that the alleged (...)
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  43.  80
    Transitivity in coherence-based probability logic.Angelo Gilio, Niki Pfeifer & Giuseppe Sanfilippo - 2016 - Journal of Applied Logic 14:46-64.
    We study probabilistically informative (weak) versions of transitivity by using suitable definitions of defaults and negated defaults in the setting of coherence and imprecise probabilities. We represent p-consistent sequences of defaults and/or negated defaults by g-coherent imprecise probability assessments on the respective sequences of conditional events. Moreover, we prove the coherent probability propagation rules for Weak Transitivity and the validity of selected inference patterns by proving p-entailment of the associated knowledge bases. Finally, we apply our results to study (...)
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  44.  39
    Probability logic and the Modus Ponens-Modus Tollens asymmetry in conditional inference.Mike Oaksford & Nick Chater - 2008 - In Nick Chater & Mike Oaksford (eds.), The Probabilistic Mind: Prospects for Bayesian Cognitive Science. Oxford University Press. pp. 97--120.
  45.  48
    Facts and Possibilities: A Model‐Based Theory of Sentential Reasoning.Sangeet S. Khemlani, Ruth M. J. Byrne & Philip N. Johnson-Laird - 2018 - Cognitive Science 42 (6):1887-1924.
    This article presents a fundamental advance in the theory of mental models as an explanation of reasoning about facts, possibilities, and probabilities. It postulates that the meanings of compound assertions, such as conditionals (if) and disjunctions (or), unlike those in logic, refer to conjunctions of epistemic possibilities that hold in default of information to the contrary. Various factors such as general knowledge can modulate these interpretations. New information can always override sentential inferences; that is, reasoning in daily life (...)
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  46. Conditional inference and constraint satisfaction: Reconciling mental models and the probabilistic approach?Mike Oaksford & Chater & Nick - 2010 - In Mike Oaksford & Nick Chater (eds.), Cognition and Conditionals: Probability and Logic in Human Thinking. Oxford University Press.
     
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  47.  63
    Probability logic.Jon Williamson - unknown
    Practical reasoning requires decision—making in the face of uncertainty. Xenelda has just left to go to work when she hears a burglar alarm. She doesn’t know whether it is hers but remembers that she left a window slightly open. Should she be worried? Her house may not be being burgled, since the wind or a power cut may have set the burglar alarm off, and even if it isn’t her alarm sounding she might conceivably be being burgled. Thus Xenelda can (...)
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  48.  32
    Non-Archimedean fuzzy and probability logic.Andrew Schumann - 2008 - Journal of Applied Non-Classical Logics 18 (1):29-48.
    In this paper the non-Archimedean multiple-validity is proposed for basic fuzzy logic BL∀∞ that is built as an ω-order extension of the logic BL∀. Probabilities are defined on the class of fuzzy subsets and, as a result, for the first time the non-Archimedean valued probability logic is constructed on the base of BL∀∞.
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  49.  16
    Probability Logics for Reasoning About Quantum Observations.Angelina Ilić Stepić, Zoran Ognjanović & Aleksandar Perović - 2023 - Logica Universalis 17 (2):175-219.
    In this paper we present two families of probability logics (denoted _QLP_ and \(QLP^{ORT}\) ) suitable for reasoning about quantum observations. Assume that \(\alpha \) means “O = a”. The notion of measuring of an observable _O_ can be expressed using formulas of the form \(\square \lozenge \alpha \) which intuitively means “if we measure _O_ we obtain \(\alpha \) ”. In that way, instead of non-distributive structures (i.e., non-distributive lattices), it is possible to relay on classical logic (...)
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  50.  11
    Probability, logic and the cognitive foundations of rational belief.John Fox - 2003 - Journal of Applied Logic 1 (3-4):197-224.
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